저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 중국 주식이 여전히 투자 가능하다고 보며, 정부 정책 목표에 부합하는 기업(JD.com, 핀둬둬)에 선별 매수 중이다. 중국 주식 전략 변화: 작년 11월 앤트그룹 IPO 무산 이후 중국 규제 강화 신호로 ARK는 중국 주식을 대거 매도했고, 올해 4~5월경 주력 펀드가 대부분 중국 주식에서 빠져나갔다. 정책 부합 종목 선별: 최근 3~4선도시·물류·식료품 등 정부 우선순위에 맞는 기업을 골라 매수 중이며, JD.com(JD 물류 지분 약 70%)이 최대 매수 종목이다. 핀둬둬(PDD)도 저가 이커머스로 지방 확대 목표에 부합해 같은 이유로 매수했다. 알리바바 평가: 정부 규제 리스크로 알리바바 대신 JD·PDD를 선호한다. 창업자 잭 마의 영향은 과장됐다고 보며, 알리바바는 여전히 중국 경제 성장의 핵심이다. 교육 기업 리스크: 영리 교육 기업은 사회적 가치 없이 이익을 추구해 규제 대상이 된 것으로 설명했다. 온라인 교육의 국유화 수준 규제는 시장 밸류에이션을 장기간 압박할 것으로 봤다. 미국과 비교: 데이터 프라이버시·반독점 규제는 미국 빅테크에도 존재하며, 중국은 정부 권한이 강해 더 빠르게 움직일 뿐이라고 주장했다. 정책 타이밍 해석: 중국이 바이든 행정부의 상대적 유화 기조와 2022년 중간선거 전 시점을 이용해 규제를 서둘러 마무리하는 것일 수 있다고 봤고, 이 경우 중국 주식에 긍정적이라고 했다. 장기 전망: 수억 명의 중산층 편입으로 중국 기업의 성장 기회가 크다고 보며, 중국 경제는 계속 빠르게 성장할 것으로 전망했다. 리스크 및 조건: 정부 정책 목표와 반대 방향에 투자하면 안 되며, 중국에서는 정부와 싸울 수 없다는 점을 강조했다. 비관이 극심할 때가 세대적 매수 기회라는 역발상 관점도 제시했다. 진행자 결론: 우드의 중국 재매수가 옳은 판단이었는지는 시간이 말해줄 것이라고 마무리했다.
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what's up guys and welcome back to wall street millennial on this channel we cover everything related to stocks and investing about a month ago kathy woods arkan vest dumped all of their holdings of chinese stocks at the time she said the unpredictable regulatory environment in china makes u.s stocks more attractive on a relative basis in the past few days they've made something of a u-turn and started buying shares of jd.com and other chinese companies but importantly she is being very selective about which chinese stocks she buys picking individual companies that are at less risk of regulatory crackdown she recently gave an interview on bloomberg explaining her rationale in this video we'll go over what she said and whether this could spell the end for the chinese bear market of the past few months keep in mind that we are not financial advisors and this is for entertainment purposes only make sure do your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decision so we had been pulling out of china um we started last november actually after uh after the uh debacle around the ant group ipo and really the banishment it seems of jack ma and we saw increasing uh increasing signs that the government was going to get tough on on companies uh we didn't know exac and and companies which were more than unicorns they had exploded onto the scene and they were had become so powerful as had their leaders that they almost seemed to be threatening the government at least that seemed to be our take on the government's response so we were a bit cautious pulled away and in fact our flagship fund has moved out of most chinese stocks i think we were out probably uh late april late may somewhere around there it might have been a little bit later uh gradually you never know uh 100 of the time i think the online education um really nationalization there was was a v a real valuation killer for the market so i think that the market's going to be under pressure from a valuation point of view uh from a lot for a long time now because that that sort of thing was so unexpected uh even even from those of us who saw the the government tightening its grip uh on on the country uh so but what we have done we did uh after this last uh bloodbath in the stocks uh we did uh try and sort through okay which companies are uh are doing things the government likes right and what we're seeing are those that are catering to tier three tier four cities logistics groceries so you've seen us by jd.com jd logistics is a big part of jd.com i think they own 70 of it uh so that's probably been our biggest purchase as well as some pin duo do for the same reason but if you were to look at what we were doing in those portfolios we were really swapping them out of other names that we think uh are are going to be continue to be in harm's way or certainly under government pressure uh like the alibaba's for example she says china is not uninvestable but you want to own companies that align with the government's long-term development goals in a communist country like china it's extremely important to invest on the side of the government one of china's key policy priorities is to increase development of so-called tier 3 and tier 4 cities while big cities like shanghai and beijing have attained great prosperity over the past decades many smaller cities have been left behind this is why she recently bought shares of chinese e-commerce company jd.com jd is focused on expanding its logistics network to smaller cities which will create economic development and increase access to fast delivery she's also buying shares in another chinese e-commerce company pinduo duo which trades under the ticker symbol pdd pdd is a discount ecommerce company which primarily serves poorer areas of the country as such it fits in perfectly with the government's goals of creating equal development across all provinces and cities she likes these stocks better than alibaba which is face regulatory scrutiny sentiment around alibaba has been very negative ever since november of 2020 when their founder jack ma disappeared after making a speech critical of the government however we view these fears as overblown jack moss dubbed down as chairman of alibaba almost two years ago and holds no official role in the company to the extent that there are any issues between ma and the communist party there's no reason to believe that this would directly impact alibaba alibaba is the largest e-commerce company not only in china but in the entire world it's more than twice the size of amazon as measured by gross merchandise value they will likely face antitrust scrutiny in the future as will amazon and every other mega cap tech giant but they have long been the backbone of china's economic development and are investing heavily in underdeveloped regions across the country an example of companies that do not align with the government schools are for-profit education companies they profiteer off the educational rat race without creating any real value for society well if you think about what china's doing they're doing many of the same things our own government and other governments around the world are doing uh you know they're most governments are concerned about uh data privacy uh national security and even even concerned uh in some ways about the impact of social media on students and so forth so uh but we just haven't we don't have the kind of central centrally controlled government that can you know wipe those those activities and risks uh off the face of the earth as much as possible that's just not who we are most of the issues around data privacy and anti-monopoly that china is cracking down on also exist in western countries all the big tech companies in the us are facing regulatory scrutiny of one form or another investors are willing to overlook this and bid up u.s tech stocks to record valuations facebook recently surpassed a 1 trillion market cap joining apple microsoft and google the key difference in china is that the communist government is much more powerful and can act much more quickly than their western counterparts but the problems they are trying to solve are not fundamentally different from those in the us one of the reasons this may be going on now is uh china saw what the trump administration was like and the biden administration has been just as tough in some ways but perhaps not as tough as a a a more conservative or hawkish administration would have been around hong kong and so we've got the midterm elections uh in november next year so this is their window to do what they want to do because i do believe they're not that they're feeling like um this is a little bit of a window and if the more hawkish administration gets in later then you know they will have want to have done whatever it is it's possible the chinese government is taking advantage of the biden administration's perceived dovishness to crack down on u.s listed chinese companies now this could explain why the crackdowns are happening so rapidly seemingly out of nowhere if this is the case it would be very positive for chinese stocks going forward this would indicate the chinese government is just trying to do all the crackdowns now to get them out of the way thus they do not represent a fundamental shift in their policy of economic liberalization which they have enacted since the early days of deng xiaoping in conclusion chinese stocks are still investable and the chinese economy continues to grow rapidly as hundreds of millions of chinese consumers enter the middle class over the coming years there is tremendous opportunity for chinese companies to experience massive growth and generate returns for investors but you have to be extremely careful and make sure that you're investing on the right side of the government's policy goals in a country like china you can't fight town hall of course there's always risk and this is the nature of investing but when sentiment is the most negative and risk is perceived as being the greatest this is when generational buying opportunities are created it's easy to be bullish when the market is bullish and bearish when the market is bearish it's much harder to be a contrarian and by the dip when everyone else is selling it's even harder to be contrarian and be right only time will tell if kathy wood is making the right call by buying the dip on chinese stocks alright guys that wraps it up for this video what do you think about kathy wood going back into chinese stocks let us know in the comments section below if you enjoyed this content make sure to hit the like button and subscribe so you don't miss future uploads as always thank you so much for watching and we'll see you in the next one wall street millennial signing out
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