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well good morning traders Andrew Baxter here from Australian investment education where we help you create tomorrow's wealth today and welcome to the stopwatch and I have to say this is probably been the hardest stopwatch for me to to really consider because the stock that we're covering today is a company in the u.s.
called Tesla TS L a famous for amongst other things it's electric motorcars and I have to say at the outset this has been difficult for me because it is a product and a company I absolutely love it's a stock that's been extremely lucrative for me from a trading perspective but just looking at the business a great product that's safe that's a real game-changer doing some real positive things for the environment and really redefining what motor transport could be all about and let's face it the performance on them hello I'm gonna give this thing a run for its money it's an incredible car to to drive that's for sure but we're gonna look rather than the emotive issues that I've just gone through making money from the stock loving the product loving the company loving its philosophy and what that highlights by the way even as a professional trader and investor as I am that yeah it's important not to fall in love with the stocks that you're trading or investing in what we're gonna do is look at the numbers and at the moment yeah it's a really murky picture and this is something that's given me great cause for concern I guess in the interest of disclosure I am holding long positions in the stock I've got a fairly sizable chunk of that stock and I'm just disclosing that to you right now and the stock at the moments trading at around three hundred and fifty five dollars a shares they're not the cheapest stock in the market by a large margin and número the Investment Bank Japanese investment bank have just initiated coverage on Tesla as a matter of fact and they've put a five hundred dollar price target on that stock so there's potential for yeah a nice significant run-up for the stock but let's look at the actual business itself right now to get a gauge of whether that's realistic and what sort of timeframe that's possible to be achieved over and my biggest concern as a holder of the stock and so on is follow this company very very closely for a number of years are the figures for car sales it's a car business after all and the last quarter it sold around 26,000 units of its product now the breakdown for those sales were run about fourteen and units in the Model S and it were very fair to say that the sales of the Model S car have been slowing down and declining over the last last number of months which would show perhaps the product is matured and people have moved on to the next product the next product of course in Tesla stable is the Model X which is the one that's got the really cool x-wing DeLorean Back to the Future type doors on the side of the rent 4000 sales from that car over the last quarter which is tiny when you look at the global car market but nonetheless is a sizable number now the sales for the Model 3 the new lower pricepoint product that Tesla's launched we're just shy of 200 units and look it's a new product however if we look at the tweets for example at the launch of the model 3 from Elon Musk you know they were looking at 1500 units to be sold in September so to say that they're behind is something of an understatement but it's not just about the volume of sales with bringing on a new product in what is a capital intensive industry the car industry you look at the margins within the business and the gross margins I would crunching the numbers suggest around about 20% the company says they want around 30% so margins getting squeezed quite hard right now - so what does that mean well at some point in time the company will run out of cash it's not selling enough product to support the R&D and the cost of building it it's not making a profit for example and that's something that you need to do in business after all that's one of the one of the drivers unintended talking about a car company there's one of the major drivers for the metrics and investment you want to look at companies that can be profitable I was in Tesla share prices been astronomical because people are buying into what the future potential of that stock really is so there's the opportunity for how the company may need to go run do the rounds raise a nother chunk of capital it's done that many many times before shouldn't be hard there's got some very significant loyal backers behind it but nonetheless having to go and raise for the capital is a another concern so where do I see the business right now look it's it's it's solid in terms of the wage share price has been performing the tech sector as we know has been very very strong looking at over the last 12 18 months particularly it's been very strong but you know there are just a couple of warning signs there they've prompted me to tighten up my stop-loss which again with a stock like Tesla that is a volatile stock you've got to give you stock losses room to accommodate the pulsing the breathing if you will have those stocks but I've just tightened up my stock a little bit alright to get stopped out of that trade right now I wouldn't be that upset it's locking in great profit but I would suggest that you know there is a potential for a little bit of a bumpy road again no pun intended for the stock as we start to see the expectation from the market that model three starts to ramp up production and starts to really create some decent volume it's not doing that right now I don't really believe the car is in production in terms of the small volume that's come off the ramp so far I guess it's still the beta stage where they're hiding out kinks in the hose and and look let's not lose sight of one thing Elon Musk has been a phenomenal entrepreneur in every endeavor and when you see the guy with his back against the wall you know the odds of success perhaps are stacked against you that's exactly the kind of environment that he thrives in and he's done it time and time and time again I'm a massive fan of Elon Musk I'm a massive fan of Tesla I'm just looking at the moment in the way that I'm trading the stock in the short term it may be that I look to buy back in again for a further run in and if Nomura's profit target of $500 this year is about right while there's plenty of upside there if anyone can run this business and turn it around and get it firing in the way that it's got the capacity it is Elon Musk their issues with the back tree factory they gave thanks for bringing them online again if anyone can turn that business around and get it to where it needs to be its Elon Musk very very interesting stock and this is a tricky broadcast because I hope from our words and please don't hear me to there hope you feel me this is a stock I absolutely love it is a stock and a business I think if things go well for it that will go down in history as being a major game changer they're not leaving a small number of white consumer goods that are pretty cool and defining a new age it is game-changer in terms of the environment and changing the way that people look at renewable energy in particular and nothing will give me a greater smaller satisfaction in twenty thirty years time seeing the success of this business but we trade the here and now and that's one of the difficulties that we have is disconnecting the emotion about an investment versus the practicalities of making profit as a trader a job is to make profit and as a result looking to manage the emotion out I think as I say we're the tightest stop if I get triggered out of that I'll be looking for re-entry when I start to see some figures of model three coming through very interesting as always trading and investing involves risk past performance is no guarantee of future performance use those stocks to protect your capital controversial one today very difficult for me to talk to you in this way about a stock I truly love but I hope this gives you a bit of an insight in terms of how a professional trader can still label with decisions when it's a stock that they get close to have a great day happy trading Jesse
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