저자: AndrewBaxter · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라는 제품과 회사는 좋아하지만 실적 지표가 우려스러워 손절 폭을 좁혔고, 단기 재진입은 Model 3 생산 수치 확인 후를 조건으로 한다. 테슬라 차량 판매 동향: 지난 분기 약 26,000대 판매. Model S는 판매가 둔화·감소 중이고, Model X는 약 4,000대, Model 3는 약 200대 수준으로 출하 목표(9월 1,500대 기대) 대비 크게 부진하다고 설명. 수익성 우려: 매출총이익률 약 20% 추정(회사 목표 약 30%)으로 마진 압박이 크며, 이익 창출이 안 되면 추가 자금 조달이 필요할 수 있다고 지적. 주가 및 전망: 현재 주가 약 355달러. 일본 투자은행 노무라의 목표가 500달러 언급, 올해 기준 상승 여지는 있다고 봄. 다만 변동성이 커 손절선을 타이트하게 조정함. 전략: 보유 중인 롱 포지션의 손절에 걸려도 큰 손해는 아니라는 입장. Model 3 생산이 본격화되어 볼륨이 확인되면 재매수를 고려. 리스크: 투자 위험과 과거 수익이 미래를 보장하지 않는다는 고지. 감정적 애착과 실제 수익 판단을 분리해야 한다는 점 강조. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 테슬라와 일론 머스크의 성공을 확신하지만, 단기 트레이딩 관점에서는 보수적.
다듬은 글
Good morning traders, Andrew Baxter here from Australian Investment Education. We help you create tomorrow's wealth today. Welcome to the Stock Watch. This is probably the hardest Stock Watch for me to really consider, because the stock we're covering today is a company in the U.S. called Tesla, TSLA, famous for, among other things, its electric motorcars.
I have to say at the outset this has been difficult for me, because it's a product and a company I absolutely love. It's a stock that's been extremely lucrative for me from a trading perspective. But just looking at the business: a great product, one that's safe, a real game-changer, doing real positive things for the environment, and really redefining what motor transport could be about. And let's face it, the performance on them, hello, I'm going to give this thing a run for its money. It's an incredible car to drive, that's for sure.
But we're going to look at the numbers rather than the emotive issues I've just gone through: making money from the stock, loving the product, loving the company, loving its philosophy. That highlights something, by the way. Even as a professional trader and investor, as I am, it's important not to fall in love with the stocks you're trading or investing in. What we're going to do is look at the numbers. At the moment it's a really murky picture, and that's given me great cause for concern.
In the interest of disclosure, I am holding long positions in the stock. I've got a fairly sizable chunk of it, and I'm disclosing that to you right now. The stock is trading at around $355 a share. It's not the cheapest stock in the market by a large margin. And a Japanese investment bank has just initiated coverage on Tesla, and they've put a $500 price target on the stock. So there's potential for a nice, significant run-up. But let's look at the actual business right now, to get a gauge of whether that's realistic, and what sort of timeframe it could be achieved over.
My biggest concern as a holder of the stock, and as someone following this company very closely for a number of years, is the figures for car sales. It's a car business after all. Last quarter it sold around 26,000 units of its product. The breakdown: roughly 14,000 units of the Model S, and it's fair to say that Model S sales have been slowing and declining over the last number of months. That might show the product has matured and people have moved on to the next one.
The next product in the Tesla stable is the Model X, the one with the really cool, X-wing, DeLorean, Back to the Future-type doors on the side. It sold around 4,000 units over the last quarter. That's tiny when you look at the global car market, but nonetheless a sizable number.
Sales of the Model 3, the new lower price-point product Tesla has launched, were just shy of 200 units. It's a new product, so look, that's understandable. However, if we look at the tweets, for example, from Elon Musk at the launch of the Model 3, they were looking at 1,500 units to be sold in September. So to say they're behind is something of an understatement.
But it's not just about the volume of sales. Bringing on a new product in what is a capital-intensive industry, the car industry, you have to look at the margins within the business. Crunching the numbers, the gross margins suggest around 20%. The company says it wants around 30%, so margins are getting squeezed quite hard right now.
So what does that mean? At some point the company will run out of cash. It's not selling enough product to support the R&D and the cost of building it. It's not making a profit. And that's something you need to do in business after all. Profitability is one of the major drivers for the metrics you want to look at as an investor. Tesla's share price has been astronomical because people are buying into what the future potential of the stock really is. But there's the opportunity, or the need, for the company to go around the rounds and raise another chunk of capital. It's done that many, many times before, so it shouldn't be hard. It has some very significant, loyal backers behind it. But having to go and raise capital is another concern.
So where do I see the business right now? Look, it's solid in terms of the share price performance. The tech sector, as we know, has been very, very strong over the last 12 to 18 months, particularly. But there are a couple of warning signs, and they've prompted me to tighten up my stop-loss. With a stock like Tesla, which is volatile, you have to give the stock room to accommodate the pulsing, the breathing, if you will, that those stocks do. But I've just tightened my stop a little bit. If I get stopped out of that trade right now, I wouldn't be that upset. It's locking in great profit. However, I'd suggest there's a potential for a bit of a bumpy road, again no pun intended, for the stock as we start to see the market's expectation that Model 3 ramps up production and starts to create decent volume. It's not doing that right now. I don't really believe the car is in full production in terms of the small volume that's come off the line so far. I guess it's still in the beta stage, where they're ironing out kinks in the hose.
Let's not lose sight of one thing. Elon Musk has been a phenomenal entrepreneur in every endeavor. When you see the guy with his back against the wall, the odds of success may be stacked against him, and that's exactly the kind of environment he thrives in. He's done it time and time and time again. I'm a massive fan of Elon Musk, and a massive fan of Tesla.
What I'm looking at, in the way I'm trading the stock in the short term, is that I may look to buy back in for a further run-in. If Nomura's profit target of $500 this year is about right, there's plenty of upside. If anyone can run this business and turn it around, and get it firing in the way it has the capacity to, it's Elon Musk. They've had issues with the Gigafactory, and they've given thanks for bringing it online again. If anyone can turn that business around and get it to where it needs to be, it's Elon Musk.
This is a very, very interesting stock, and this is a tricky broadcast, because I hope from our words, and please don't hear me wrong, you feel me. This is a stock I absolutely love. It's a stock and a business that, if things go well for it, will go down in history as a major game-changer. It's not just leaving a small number of wealthy consumers with pretty cool goods. It's defining a new age. It's a game-changer in terms of the environment, and in changing the way people look at renewable energy in particular. Nothing will give me greater satisfaction in twenty, thirty years' time than seeing the success of this business.
But we trade the here and now, and that's one of the difficulties: disconnecting the emotion about an investment from the practicalities of making a profit. As a trader, my job is to make a profit. As a result, I'm looking to manage the emotion out. As I say, we have the tightest stop. If I get triggered out of that, I'll be looking for re-entry when I start to see some figures for Model 3 coming through.
As always, trading and investing involves risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Use those stops to protect your capital. It's a controversial one today, and it's very difficult for me to talk to you this way about a stock I truly love. But I hope this gives you a bit of insight into how a professional trader can still make decisions when it's a stock they've gotten close to. Have a great day, happy trading.
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