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hey Mohammed if we moved into some new uh territory do you think and I look at the s p I love it we're at for 4080 now so we did we tested the lows like like you thought we we had had our bet and everything else we got below 3 600 but I don't know if we really would call that a breach of the lows we came close but a lot of people thought 3 200 uh eventually or 3 000 people still do on the S P I'm wondering if you think let's do the same exercise again what's first now 4 500 or 3 500 given that maybe we're in a look maybe we're starting to see some positive signs about the fed and about uh you know whether they really need to go that much further you think it's 35 or 45.
but it's never gonna it means a lot um it meant a lot and it was a lot of fun thank you we got the 3 500. go ahead we got to 3 500 because you had The Coincidence of two things you had interest rate risk and credit risk in other words you had concerns about the multiple because of what was happening to financial conditions and liquidity and you had concerns about earnings the first is going away I am in the camp that inflation will continue to go down I do think that by the middle of next year we're going to be having a very serious discussion about what do you do when inflation is sticky as three to four percent do you drive the economy lower in order to get to two percent or not but we will see inflation going down so the marketplace is saying inflation risk is over the market isn't focusing yet on credit and earnings risk and that is because as Steve rightly said there's no sign of a recession so what then 45 or 35 we don't have to bet Joe I don't like I I don't like you putting me in the in these sort of you know barbell things right I I think you thought it was better how things go along are you feeling better that we maybe have have made a a bottom at this point a permanent bottom the the Dow is up 20 now Mohammed so is that still a bear Market Rally or do we call it a bull so I'll repeat what I've said over the last three or four times I've been on with you which is for now the coast is supportive of risk assets going higher if you look beyond the next few days and weeks there are some great uncertainties and we are yet to get enough information one way or the other so I can this Market is a market that's very attractive to Tactical players it's much tougher to long-term investors for long-term investors recession or not Muhammad um look I'm not in the cap of a hundred percent recession I think the risk is uncomfortably high but we can avoid it but Steve I always quickly add if however we fall into recession which I hope we don't don't fall into the transitory Camp don't fall into into the Trap of saying oh it will be short and shallow because if we do fall into a recession there's a high risk that will it will not be short and shallow so keep an open mind and let's not repeat the mistake of last year when we all embraced transit or inflation because we could look through it is that because the FED I worry about it and the fiscal is that because the fed and the physical side won't come in to help the economy at that point because of the inflation Danger yes and also because balance sheets may be strong overall but there's a good segment of the population that are hurting also there's lots of stuff going on globally supply issues aren't going to disappear I wrote an article in yesterday's Financial Times that goes through why we should be open-minded and humble about calling what a recession would look like because we there's simply too many uncertainties right now
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