Tom Lee: CPI was better than expected — a rip off the Band-Aid moment

요약 보기

CPI 헤드라인이 예상보다 양호해 랠리가 이어질 것으로 봄. 9월 금리인하 기대(약 95%)에 금융·소형주·비트코인 수혜 전망. 8월 말 S&P500 6,500~6,600 신고가 전망. 이더리움은 스테이블코인과 월가 온체인 금융화로 10~15년 최대 매크로 트레이드로 제시, 연말 7,500 달러는 하단 수준. 엔비디아는 선행 PER 30배로 상대적으로 합리적이라 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Why don't we start off with the with the markets hitting new record highs once again after that CPI report that in all honesty it was kind of mixed. Uh you know headline was better than expected core was just slightly hotter than expected. What's your take on that? Well I think it was it's just a reflection of the fact that the market was bracing for a hot CPI knowing that not only was the Fed but economists were warning that we'd start to see inflation coming through uh in the July CPI report.

02. So, I think it was actually elevated compared to where it was in June, but I think it was much better than expected. So, it's one of those ripoff the band-aid moments. All right, we were showing the CE watch tool earlier. Uh, just under a 95% chance of a cut coming up in September being priced in by bond traders.

03. That rate cut, what area of the market does it benefit? Does it definitely just benefit the cyclical sectors? What does it mean for the tech trade, etc.? Um to me uh there there's a whole area of the market that gets sort of lit up when the Fed uh gives sort of that all you know dovish signal or you know Fed is resuming its cutting cycle and I think that's things that benefit from liquidity.

04. So that's financials small caps and also uh believe it or not Bitcoin. Oh, Bitcoin. All right, that's interesting. By the way, potential rate cut we've often thought we're going to get those rate cuts and they don't actually happen even though they're being heavily priced in right now. Um with that That's right.

05. I want to get to your word of the day. What's your word of the day today, Tom? And why? The the word of the day to me is breakaway. Um, and the reason I'm saying that word is that uh in early July, Bitcoin made a breakaway move. Uh, you know, and I think Bitcoin has been leading the markets by a month.

06. So, believe it or not, I think that this is the month that the S&P, you know, makes new highs towards 6,500, 6,600. Interesting. So, you think we hit new highs this month? What's the catalyst? Because I mean, we're we're pretty much through earning season. So, what pushes us higher other than a lot of optimism over a rate cut coming up?

07. Uh Frank, I I think part of it is uh positioning and and sentiment because I think investors were thinking this is the dog days of August and that we we'd be getting some hawkish inflation data. So, I think some of that's just the relief that in fact uh CPI was better than expected. I think it's also just followthrough because we've had a pretty decent earnings season and at the end of the day the economy is holding up pretty well and you know I'd say that it has a lot to do with the fact that August will probably be a surprise and markets are going to be stronger.

08. All right, Tom, you didn't send us a pick, but I'm going to guess that Bit Miner might be your pick today. It's a company that you're involved with. Um I want to talk to you about Ethereum and also Bit Miner. Uh yes. Well, um, you know, Ethereum, you know, has probably become, uh, the surprising sort of hit for cryptocurrencies this year because it's up, uh, 28% outperforming Bitcoin.

09. But, you know, in some of the work we've done, we believe it's the biggest macro trade over the next 10 to 15 years. And a lot of it has to do with the fact that stable coins have really become the chat GBT moment for crypto. And now we have the Genius Act and Project Crypto from the SEC, which is Wall Street essentially running onto the blockchain.

10. Um, but one of the best ways we believe to sort of have exposure is through Ethereum treasuries and and that's a company like Bitmine, which I've become chairman recently. So, when we're talking about Ethereum, um, it's one cryptocurrency. Stable coins are obviously in the news, especially with the Circle IPO and Circle reporting its earnings and offering more shares.

11. And then you mentioned there's Bitcoin as well. Why are you so bullish on Ethereum? What are the opportunities you're seeing in Ethereum in particular? Well, uh, Ethereum is the second largest blockchain, and it's different than Bitcoin because with Bitcoin, you can't really do programmable uh, contracts, you know, so smart contracts.

12. Wall Street needs to find a stable and legally compliant blockchain to work on. The majority of stable coin creations are taking place on Ethereum. And, uh, when you look at uh, where JP Morgan is building a lot of its layer twos or Coinbase or Robin Hood, they're choosing to do it on Ethereum. So it it is the place where Wall Street is essentially financializing the system.

13. All right. So, by the way, you're not the only bullish person or bullish uh company when it comes to Ethereum. We're just looking right now. Standard charter raising its year- end target for Ethereum 27500 from 4,000. Right now, Ethereum is trading right around, I believe, 4,700. Are you this bullish 7,500 by year end?

14. Uh, you know, I think that's within the I think that's, you know, within the realm of expectations. You know, Ethereum, I think, first needs to clear its prior highs of around 4,800. It's within 6% of that now. Believe it or not, Bitcoin's obviously been making many new all-time highs this year, but Ethereum is still below its 2022 highs, 2021, 2022.

15. So, I think once it clears that level, um, I think Ethereum and small caps tend to be correlated. So, to me, 7500 actually might even be on the low end of what's possible. I think I've seen many targets of 10 to 15,000. All right, one more time before we get out of here. Uh, you're known for your granny shots.

16. Can you give us one of your granny shots right now with the fact that we have the markets trading at all-time highs, the S&P and the NASDAQ again closing at record highs yesterday? Yeah, I mean I I think really one of the granniest of our granny shots is Nvidia. Uh, it's still one of the most important companies.

17. Well, it's probably the most important company in the world. And in terms of forward multiple at 30 times, it's actually still reasonably priced. I believe its PE multiple is still ranks number 38. There are 37 stocks in the S&P 500 with a higher PE than Nvidia.