저자: Jeff · 외국인
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AMD는 2017년 12월 기준 보유(Hold)로 제시됨. 결론: 상승 잠재력은 있으나 공매도 비중과 적자 지표, 실적 가이던스 하향 우려로 신규 매수는 보류하고 기존 보유분은 일부 축소 권고. 사업 개요: AMD는 CPU·GPU를 만드는 반도체 기업이며 Apple iMac Pro, Asus 노트북, Xbox One, PS4 등에 칩이 탑재되어 게임 시장 점유가 크다고 설명. 인텔과의 제휴: 파트너십은 인수가 아니므로 언제든 해소 가능하며, 엔비디아 영역을 잠식할 잠재력이 있다고 봄. 다만 효과는 시간이 필요하다고 판단. 실적 흐름: 2016년 4분기~2017년 3분기까지 실적은 상향 추세였으나 2017년 4분기 가이던스가 하향됨. 발언자는 가이던스 하향 기업은 매수하지 않는 개인 원칙을 밝힘. 펀더멘털: 시가총액 약 97억 달러, 선행 PER 28.94, 52주 고가 15.65달러, 저가 9.42달러. 유동주식 대비 공매도 비중 21.82%로 본인 기준(5%)을 크게 상회해 부담 요인으로 제시. 영업이익률·순이익률 모두 적자이며 배당 없음. 차트 및 주가: 1년 전 10.66달러, 현재 10.13달러로 1년간 정체. 급락 후 급반등하는 변동성이 있어 단기 매매 대상으로는 가능하나 손절 기준을 엄격히 둬야 한다고 언급. 투자 판단: 보유(Hold) 등급. 인공지능 확산과 칩 수요 증가, 인텔 제휴에 따른 상승 여지는 인정하나 공매도 과다, 적자, 가이던스 하향, 1년 횡보를 리스크로 제시. 장기 보유자는 포지션의 75~80%를 줄이고 다른 종목으로 이동 권고. 리스크 조건: 가이던스 하향 확인 전까지 신규 진입 보류, 공매도 비중과 실적 회복 여부가 핵심 관찰 포인트.
다듬은 글
what is going on everyone and welcome back in today's video we are gonna initiate coverage on Advanced Micro Devices ticker symbol AMD and they trade on the NASDAQ exchange so as I'm shooting this video the market is actually closed right now but AMD closed at 10 dollars and 13 cents if this is your first time tuning in my name is Jeff and we talked everything investable on this channel we talked stock market cryptocurrency real estate and we also do financial training so go ahead and subscribe now so you don't miss any content alright guys so Advanced Micro Devices is a multinational semiconductor company and they produce computer processors and graphics cards that's their main business focus so here we are we are on the official AMD website right now it's just AMD calm and they have a list of all their products their processors that they make for desktop and laptop and servers and then over here they have a list of all the graphics cards that they make to the desktop laptop workstation servers and etc and there is a lot of AMD chips and processors in a lot of the devices we use we can scroll down here and take a look is the like right here this new Apple iMac Pro has the Radeon Pro Vega in it and like here we go this new Asus notebook it actually has the AMD rise in CPU and the Radeon rx 580 graphics card in it so I bet that thing's pretty powerful right there I'd like to check that out excuse me here we go they they introducing the world's fastest processor for ultra slim notebooks the AMD rise in mobile processors radio and Vega graphics and they're also very very involved in gaming guys now I am D has the APU and graphics card inside of the Microsoft Xbox one and the Sony PlayStation 4 I think NVIDIA has the graphics card for the Nintendo switch but this company is involved in two out of the three major consoles so that is a very very you know they they do have some dominance in video gaming industry and then down here at the end of the page they have an investor section you could visit if you want and another thing too is that here recently also they partnered with Intel that Intel and NVIDIA are both two other big chip makers and they actually partnered with Intel to start slowing the video down a little bit and a lot of people are really excited about that now me personally I don't know exactly where I stand with that yet I like to see a little time pass you know because because don't confuse a partnership with an acquisition you know a partnership you can just walk away from pretty much anytime you know but like a true acquisition that would be where a bigger company buys a smaller company and you know assumes all responsibility for it this is just a partnership though this is just a partnership between Intel and AMD but I think it is something that could really you know get into Nvidia space over the course of time and then obviously help Intel and Advanced Micro Devices alright guys so the first thing I want to look at is the last four earnings reports that AMD has posted so this goes back to quarter four of 2016 and as you can see in overall sense they are trending upward with their reports but here in of 2017 they actually had guidance cut took a step back in quarter two they had it raised and they beat then in quarter three they had it raised again and they beat but going into quarter four here guys is that guidance got cut guidance got cut and I have a a rule of thumb that I use personally that has helped me out a lot over the years is I don't buy into a stock going into a guidance cut okay is that I would like to wait and see what kind of numbers get reported in this quarter and then what the future guidance is going to be after that okay now I you know that's not me being critical of this company or trying to you know talk badly about this company that's just a personal rule of thumb i use and i want to put you the viewer in the absolute best position to you know make as much money and also not lose money so like as you can see here guys that you know they aren't an overall sense they are moving in a very bullish direction but they do have guidance cut it looks like almost every other quarter and we are in between quarter three and quarter four earnings and you know the guidance did get lowered in quarter four so i would just be very very careful there all right let's take a look at some of the fundamentals here now let's see right here on the top line they have their market cap nine point seven seven billion dollars they have a forward p/e of twenty-eight point nine four i don't have any problems there and their 52 week high is $15.65 their 15 week the 52 week low would be nine dollars and 42 cents but then i just want to stop right here guys at share statistics and go down to this short percent of float right here at twenty one point eight two percent that is that is hideous okay basically guys what that metric means is that almost 22% of all shareholders in this company are holding the stock short or basically they are expecting you know they are leveraging their investment on the company losing stock price okay and so that is just that is a little bit overwhelming for me I can't quite I have a personal rule of thumb there as well is that I don't invest in a company over 5% and then I really really have to be in interested in a company to do that okay is that you know I consider 5% short percent of float on the high side and so this one here is almost 22% another thing too we can jump right over here and look at their profitability is that they have a negative profit margin and they also have a negative operating margin so look again those are two big metrics I use that would turn me away from a long term position obviously I like to see negatives if I was going to go short but I do not want to see that at all on a company I'm going along with and they also do not pay a dividend guys now I have pulled up the 1-year chart on AMD here and also I've just used this blue background line right here and that is actually Nvidia chart and like I said I'm not trying to compare you know Nvidia and AMD I'm just trying to express a point here is that you know a year ago Advanced Micro Devices closes you know at ten dollars and 66 cents and it looks like it had a high of about $11.23 then we Jam all the way down here a year later to today and it closes at 10 dollars and 13 cents okay so in a year's time this company is just not making any progress okay and here we can exit the Nvidia but you see in these big dips now they this company does have some definite explosion and they have some explosive power here and I would consider a great candidate for a day trade or a swing trade if you wanted to trade this stock inside of these dips you know and try to catch them in these dips you know I would not have a problem with that at all I have never personally traded Advanced Micro Devices but you can see this company does have some explosion back up you know when it takes a big hit it explodes back up in a short period of time and you know when you get inside these dips it you know I would just be quick on the quick on the sell button if you were gonna do something like that I would be real quick on that sell button because you know in a year's time this company is just not holding its value as a matter of fact it's taken a loss over a year because you know you know we're ten dollars a year ago and we're still ten dollars and that's definitely not something I want to see out of a long term position if I yeah if I'm taking that kind of a loss even just a small loss in a year's time I'm gonna sit back and say hey I don't think I made a very good investment all right guys so what you know objectively what I want to do here is put you in the best position with your portfolio I want you making money on your positions and I don't want you losing money so I'm going to rate Advanced Micro Devices as a hold okay I feel like they have enough upside in the past two years have been very big for them and a sense that you know the partnership with Intel could really play out big and that also as we get closer and closer and move further into artificial intelligence I feel like the chip makers are just going to become that much more valuable to our economy and I feel like AMD has enough upside potential okay but I can't ignore the liabilities I can't ignore how many people hold this stock short I can't ignore some of the liabilities on the balance sheet you know the charting doesn't make a whole lot of sense in the past year and you know like I said we are going into a guidance cut in corridor four and so that you know I you know I can't give it a buy rating I don't quite want to sell it either but if you're holding this stock long term I would try to reduce my position a little bit and you know maybe 75 or 80 percent get out of this stock and move on to something that's a little bit more bullish right now but I'm going to rate AMD as a hold I hope you found this video helpful guys if you did drop me a like leave me some comments let me know what you're thinking about AMD I'd love to hear about it and thank you for watching my video and have an awesome day
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