Why (TSLA) Tesla Stock 📉Sold Off After CyberTruck Launch

요약 보기

테슬라 사이버트럭 발표 후 주가가 하락한 이유를 분석한 영상. 결론: 발표 직후 주가가 30달러 하락했으나 최근 3개월 약 50% 상승한 만큼 조정으로 보며 매수 기회로 봄. 사이버트럭 사양: 싱글모터 3.9만달러, 듀얼모터 4.9만달러, 최대 주행거리 500마일 이상, 견인 7500파운드, 0-60마일 6.5초(듀얼모터 4.5초). 2021년 출시 목표. 발표 이벤트: 방ーカー 유리 파손 시연 실패, 금속 공으로 창문이 깨짐. 해머 시연에서는 문짝이 견고하게 버팀. 디자인에 대해 호불호가 엇갈림. 주가 흐름: 목요일 360달러 → 금요일 장초반 330달러, 종가 333달러로 약 30달러 하락. 애플·페이스북 이벤트 때와 유사하게 기대와 반대로 움직임. 하락 원인 추정: 과거 3개월 급등에 따른 차익실현, 대규모 초기 투자로 인한 현금흐름 부담, 수요 시장이 니치(틈새)일 가능성. Wedbush는 2019년 말 기준 연간 15만~17.5만대가 첫해 판매 기준선이라고 봄. 포드 F-150 연 100만대 규모와 비교. Citigroup은 포드의 헤드라인 리스크가 GM보다 크다고 분석. 주문 현황: 머스크는 발표 후 약 15만 건 주문(42% 듀얼모터, 41% 트라이, 17% 싱글모터)이 들어왔다고 언급. 이에 따라 하락분이 곧 회복될 수 있다고 봄. 리스크: 출시 지연, 수익성 확보까지 몇 분기 변동성 가능. 투자는 장기 관점에서 접근해야 한다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 테슬라는 펀더멘털 중심 기업으로 전환 중이며 최근 실적이 역대 최고, 주가 조정은 매수 기회라는 견해.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome back investors in stock market traders my name is Jeff Tesla unveiled their new cyber truck now guys if you are not familiar you have not watched highlights of this you know I'm gonna go through some of that in this video I'm gonna try to hit the high points kind of get in and get out there was some really funny things that happened during the presentation of Tesla's new cyber truck I think this is a very exciting thing for Tesla and then of course I do want to discuss what the reaction in the stock market was okay very different than what I anticipated now of course I never try to play calls or puts or make short-term trades based on this type of thing where a new product is getting rolled out because sometimes you might get it right other times you might get it wrong I find it to be kind of a coin flip you never really know how the analysts are gonna respond to this type of thing right down here though I will just go ahead and give you a little spoiler the truck was supposed to have unbreakable glass as you can see that was not exactly what happened I would show you the clip here on YouTube but I don't want to get a Community Guidelines strike so I'll uh I'll probably just link up the video where they're throwing the big metal ball at the window and it shatters so let's get into the details let's go over some of the high points of the new cyber truck that Tesla is going to be offering let's talk about the reaction the stock seen on Friday and then let's talk about what we should be thinking about from here going forward obviously Tesla just had the best earnings report in company history the stock is up 30 to 40 percent performing quite quite well and guys I really see Tesla turning the corner now okay I really see Tesla turning into a better company than they once were where they are more focused on fundamentals and profitability instead of just riding the coattails of Elon Musk's vision this is becoming a real company that returns money to shareholders and we might not be out of the woods yet we might have a couple more bumpy quarters ahead of us but that's part of investing in the stock market we're never gonna know exactly what's gonna happen but I do see Tesla really really turned a corner on this last earnings report so do me a favor before we get started guys make sure to drop a thumbs up on this video I appreciate all the lright guys so I really want to kind of browse through this kind of fast this is a stock market channel I want to focus on the stock market side of things but this was a really really big showing with a lot of exciting things including an electric ATV okay now there was not a lot of details shown about this ATV so this might just kind of be a little what I would call like a hook something to just get people interested get people talking but it was definitely very eye-catching and electric ATV with a helmet and I know like I said if a lot of people had the opportunity to buy this thing they probably would like on day one it'd probably sell out every single one of these they produce would sell out so let's see like I said nothing concrete yet let's see what direction that goes so let's talk a little bit about the specs of the cyber truck guys they're pretty insane it's delivering five hundred plus miles of range in its priciest configuration and Tesla still needs to maintain the price range between forty thousand and seventy thousand dollars to actually hit showrooms in 2021 it's reported that a federal Evy tax credit still available by then also mentioned that it has a tow rating of seventy five hundred pounds in a 0 to 60 miles per hour time of 6.5 seconds of dual motor so the cyber truck with a single motor is gonna sell for 39,000 a dual motor for 49,000 and that one can tow up to 10,000 pounds to reach 60 miles per hour and 4.5 seconds this thing is insane it almost feels like it's a page taken out of Blade Runner like a futuristic kind of concept car and it just got everybody on their hands and feet very very excited and it right here guys they actually took a sledgehammer to this thing and cracked it with a slip you know crack the door panel with a sledgehammer a couple of times and it barely did anything to it so this thing is very sturdy very strong probably not the kind of vehicle that you are gonna want to get into an accident with now like I said there has been a very mixed reception on the look of this thing I think it looks really really cool like I said it kind of has a Pontiac Aztek kind of look to it a lot of people think this is the ugliest thing that's ever been put out whatever it is it's extremely unique we've never really seen a vehicle like this before and then lastly guys the glass of so Elon Musk actually urged Tesla's design boss to throw a heavy steel ball at the driver's window of the actual truck and as you can see here it shattered and then he picked it up and threw it and the passenger went up and shattered two different times this is not something I'm really too worried about like I said this is something still in its design phase and I think they need to go back to the drawing board and either change the advertising or change the design of these windows okay or at least you know take off the fact that they're shatterproof they won't break that they're indestructible I don't really know what they have to do I'm not gonna be buying one of these things anytime soon but I thought it was a really really cool event and as a result of that I thought the shares were gonna jump maybe five maybe ten percent the next day and that is not at all what happened as a matter of fact it was the exact opposite and so coming into Thursday Tesla was trading all the way up three hundred and sixty dollars a share seen a little bit of a downturn on a bit of a weaker market looked like the indexes were diving a little bit Thursday at close and as soon as the market opened on Friday Tesla stock dropped $30 a share to 330 and closed the day at 333 dollars so again just that kind of reminds me of the Apple event in the Facebook event you want to go back to March when Apple had their event where they announced the Apple credit card and Apple gaming and Apple TV plus I thought we were gonna open the market ten maybe twenty dollars in the green the next day the stock barely budged and then when Facebook had their investors day a while back I was expecting a big jolt in the stock price and it was flat and then at Tesla on their big announcement like I said I was expecting to see 375 or 380 and actually I think what we got here it was another opportunity let's go and try to map out what exactly happen here why did Tesla lose $30 a share value overnight on this exciting news one of my students reach out from trade alerts Pro asked me Jeff what is going on with Tesla stock and so I already have made some exclusive content for my course I have not uploaded it to the course yet much much more exclusive much more derivative to the price of the stock if you do want to check that out guys make sure to sign up for trade alerts Pro it is the first link in my description box so why were the shares of Tesla dollars actually a couple different theories out here in Wall Street one of them being Tesla stock is down just because it's been up so massively shares have went up roughly 50 percent over the past three months pushed higher by better than expected third quarter numbers Friday's decline does appear to be related to the trucks design the body is stainless steel which involves the defunct DeLorean also a demonstration of the trucks armor glass went re now I don't think that the demonstration of the unbreakable glass really had anything to do with the reaction of the stock price this is my personal opinion I think Wall Street is gonna view this as a very very large investment on the front end to get these going and get these produced may give them a lot of challenges fundamentally I guess another way you could kind of look at it too is that Tesla just had a their best quarter and they had big guidance going forward so once they start investing money into this it could really affect cash flow and obviously profitability Wedbush came out they think that the cyber truck design was eye popping but voices concern on the market size from a demand perspective this will be more of a niche market as we believe hitting that 150 K 175 K unit threshold in its first full year of deliveries is the line in the sand out of the gates could be a very tough number to hit and again we all know Tesla has had difficulties reaching their numbers from multiple years before that explains the big volatility in the stock price from 2017 to mid 2019 you know something we could compare this to okay the leader of the market which is forward roughly sells 1 million f-150 pickups per year in a nutshell we believe this next generation cyber truck model could help Tesla expand its market opportunity outside its core customer base over time although gaining market share with stalwarts such as Ford and GM entrenched in this landscape be very very difficult so I think it's one of those things that are entering a new market the stock has been up massively over the past three months and you can really view this as a big buying opportunity Citigroup came out of the gate early with analysis of the impact of Tesla's new pickup truck their analyst says the firm's data suggests Ford has more headline risk than General Motors from the build up to the truck launch an eventual market share loss okay he also noted that for Giants more truck profit from the 60,000 plus price level where Tesla's likely truck line will be focused as well if Ford has a hedge in the evey truck game it's through the investment in ribbing the e V truck startup aims to have its own model for sale by the end of next year so I think like I said guys just overall mixed reaction people think anytime Tesla launches a new product they think oh man you know they're gonna take a lot of steps backward before this thing's gonna be profitable that's actually a very solid point but part of investing in a company is taking these lumps and it did trade down $30 but it's been up over 50% over the past three months so that is about the best I can explain it like I said just a lot of mixed reception okay there was not necessarily a black-and-white reason why it lost $30 of share value again a couple of analysts can come out throw a little water on the fire and $30 can fall off the share price at that fast and also guys keep in mind this news really just hit today Elon Musk said on Saturday there's been about a hundred and fifty thousand orders thus far for the electric carmaker cyber truck which was unveiled late on Thursday hundred and forty six thousand orders so far with 42% choosing dual 41 percent choosing try and 17 percent choosing single motor okay so just as soon as this $30 a van has fell off the share price it could boost right back up kind of looking at what pre-sales might be you know 150,000 orders that is a huge number and it could grow very very quickly so that's really all I got for the video guys make sure to go down the comments and share your thoughts and opinions about this I would really like to hear that thank you as always for watching a video and have a great day