저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 준준왈라의 현금흐름 기준 평가법(시가총액 ≈ 연간 현금흐름×30~35배)을 소개하며 조메토(이터널)는 이미 고평가 구간이라 주가가 한 자리에 머물 수 있다고 설명. 아시안페인트·렉소풋웨어도 적정~소폭 고평가로 제시하고, 버르트소프트(BLS)는 시가총액이 현금흐름 대비 절반 수준이라 저평가로 언급. 다만 추천이 아니라 평가 방법 예시라고 명시.
다듬은 글
What's up guys? Warren Buffett of India. Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: Some time ago I was watching a video and I found it very interesting. In fact, I did not even check that. But after watching this video of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, I added another parameter to my portfolio to find out which stock is better.
So I added one more parameter and I am going to share that with you guys. I lower the camera a little. So yes. So I am going to share with you guys what extra parameter I have added to any of my stock selections and he said a very interesting thing. So Rakesh Chandrawal played the big bands of Zomato some time back.
I mean, whenever he was alive, but I saw the video quite late. So today I am going to share that thing with you. When he was alive. He told him in an interview that friend, this Eternal, this Zomato company has unfair valuations. Where do such high valuations occur? So Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sir said that no company ever has such valuations.
This is such an unfair valuation. How can it have such a huge market cap? Because if you want to see any market cap, then you have to relate that market cap to the cash flow. So according to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said that if you look at the cash flow of Zomato, it is very low. So whatever you do with cash flow, it should be 30 times or between 30 to 35 times its market cap.
Meaning, whatever the cash flow is in the company, what do you say to me right now ? This Zomato share is open on srener.in, you don't have to do anything. You can go to sinner.in whenever you want and go to sler.in whenever you want and see it and after that you can scroll and go to cash flow. So when you search in cash flow, you will find a very interesting thing in cash flow that how much is its total cash flow.
So if I look, I am going into the cash flow of this right now and its cash flow for March 2024 which is Rs 646 crore. 646 crores means that Rs 600 646 crores is being generated in cash with them. Now according to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, whatever your market cap should be, it should be 30 to 35 times your cash flow.
That means we multiply 646 crores by 30 or 35 times. We give a little more concession to Zomato. Right? So if we add 646 into 35 then we get Rs 22610 crore. Zomato should have a market cap of Rs 22610 crore. If it is more than this then it is very much overvalued. Now let us see what is the market cap instead of Rs 22000 crore.
Now I'm going to score and go up. Oh brother, the market cap is ₹23,000 crore. This means that the price of Zomato has already increased so much. The market cap has become so big that the cash flow you have is less. This means that from this you understand that the price has already increased a lot.
So now to adjust the market cap, it will have to earn a lot of cash flow. Only then will the company be fairly valued. A stock is currently in an overvalued position. And many of you have taken it from Zomato for ₹50. I also have Zomato stock worth ₹50. I can see profit in this right now. But at the end of the day, would you like to create more positions in it?
So whenever you think this, analyze it and then think whether it is not overvalued ? This is highly overvalued as per Rakesh Jhunjhunwala which is his cash flow parameter 30 to 35 times of the cash flow. Right? So we try this further on some other stock and try to understand whether this parameter works or not.
So Asian Paints is open in front of me. First of all we will do the cash flow of Asian Paints. So I've gone to screener.in and I'm going down to cash flow. I see cash flow of Rs 6104 crore in March 2024. So we will go to see the market cap of 6104 crores sorry cash flow 6000 I forgot for a minute how much is it 6104 crores 6000 104 crores * Let's do it by 35, let's keep it more, let's do it by 35, so on doing * 35 it is coming out that the market cap should be 23640 crores not 231, that is 23 lakh 1364 crores 640 crores 23 640 crores Now let's go and see what is the market cap of Paints, it should be 2363000 but right now it is 2368 88 crores, that is, let's check our valuation once again, it seems to be very undervalued, so according to that the company, if we check again 614 cash flow, I have checked it correctly, I did 6104 correctly 6 oh no I did 66104 I am sorry, that's why I was saying that it seems to be a bit too much 6104 If we add 35, we get not 21000 but 211364640 crores and actually the market cap of Asian Paints right now is ₹36,000 crores.
That means it is almost the same. This means that Asian Paints company is slightly overvalued or fairly valued. Because we have multiplied it by 35, it seems a little overvalued. But it's okay. You can consider taking a position in Asian Paints once. Let us try the same thing once in some other company.
Let's take a look at Relaxo RXO footwear. ok sir. Relaxo Footwear Khul Ja Sim Sim. Let's go to the cash flow of Relaxo Footwear. I see cash flow of Rs 235 crore in March 2024. So 235 crores * 35 235 * 35 so this comes to 8225 crores. Now we just don't have to do anything. Relinxo's market cap is to be seen.
Should be around 8000. Has a market cap of ₹10,000. That means this also appears to be a slightly overvalued stock. So, this is a very good parameter for you to find this. Which stock should you buy and when you buy a stock, you should look at all the things like operating, profit, growth, price to earnings ratio etc.
But cash flow also gives you a very good idea whether the company is fairly valued or not. So once again let us think about which stocks I think can be found in the undervalued category. So let us search for Birla, what does it mean, Birla, see, it is an IT stock, the market cap of Birla will be visible there, but we are looking for the cash flow, right now the cash flow is 718 crores, 718 crores * 718 * 35 again and we got a market cap of 25000 crores.
Now let's look at the market cap of Birl Soft. Is it 25,000 crores or more? It has a market cap of Rs 10,000 crore. Now you see this, this should be a market cap of Rs 25,000 crore based on the cash flow because that was 718, right? 718 718 is its cash flow for March 2024. And if you go to the online calculator and see 718 * 35 which is 25130 and if we see its actual market cap then we see 10,000 10318 which means half, so in this way you can find the undervalued company, you are getting Birla company at half the market cap of that.
One parameter per one. Apart from this you have to see a lot of things. You have to look at the holdings of the Ah Ah Pai promoter. You have to look at the holdings of FIDI. You have to look at ROC ROE. You have to look at the price to earnings ratio. This also has to be seen. And you also have to see whether there is going to be further growth in this sector or not.
The key is to be able to predict whether the IT sector will boom in the future. If yes, then you can create a position in this stock. So, this is not a recommendation. This is only to make you understand how you can find undervalued stocks. So I looked up BLS. I thought that Blasoft's market cap would be low compared to its cash flow.
Asian Paints RXO Footwear These are joint companies. Now do you understand why joint companies like Relaxo FDWar and Asian Paints are not able to give you very astonishing returns ? This is because their prices have already increased a lot. Now their ability to escape from here has slowed down. If you want a decent return and safety on capital then you should always invest in stocks like Asian Paints Relaxo future.
But if you want to take a little risk and want to find such undervalued stocks, then you have to find such undervalued stocks which you can get an idea from the cash flow parameter that this can be a stock which will run in the market to justify its market cap and if it runs then it can give you good returns.
So what happens in this, let me explain it to you once again, remember whenever Asian Paints and Eternal, like we were talking about Zomato, its market cap has already increased a lot. When the market cap increases too much, what happens is that the stock price becomes static at one place. Because to justify the price of the stock, he will have to do a lot of business to gradually increase the market cap.
That means he gave you the money, the price quickly, which could have happened when at such a market cap, you understand like this, at such a market cap, Zomato has a market cap of approximately 2 lakh crores, its price on that should be this, but at that price, the price which should be ₹ lakh crore, he gave that price today itself, so in order to adjust its market cap, that company will have to generate a lot of cash flow, will have to make profit, only then it will be able to justify that price.
That means you have got the price earlier and whatever should be your price for the next 10 years, you have got that price today. So, if Zomato continues to move in the same range for the next 10 years or 5 years, it will not be a big deal. This is very common and is commonly seen even in old stocks that the price keeps moving around the same place.
Why? Because its market cap has already increased a lot and when it has increased then it slowly eats up its earnings, which means in a way it has earned and given you more, but now to justify it, it will have to expand its business, so it will keep expanding its business but will not give you appreciation on price appreciation capital because now it has to be slowly justified and reach a point when it gets adjusted with that market cap, then again you will get a price appreciation, so this is how it happens in these big companies like Asian pains Rexo Footwear which you get at a fairly valued valuation, but it does not give you much return and gets it undervalued, when you get a company like Blas, then you get an opportunity to find a good wealth, a good stock.
So that's it for this video. I hope you understood something in the video. If not, then rewind the video and watch it again. But this will be a very interesting video and it was very opening for me too when I studied it. When I read it, it was a trick by Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. He had told in a video interview that when he was roasting Zomato a lot, how did its shares get so highly valued and that people who are investing in it now will regret it later.
So all those things were going on. Nobody knows that Zomato may run very fast from here but ultimately in the long run it may not, I don't know exactly but it may not be able to justify the price and it is possible that Zomato may keep moving in the same range bound for many years so
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