저자: Investing Wisdom · 외국인
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The Losers Game by Charlie Ellis. This is very interesting. Uh, anybody here know the name of the company TRW? Few people. TRW used to be a big conglomerate. Uh, and now it's known primarily for credit scores. And uh, there was a guy named Sai Ramo. He was the R. It was it was Thompson Ramo Woolridge.
And he was the R in TRW. and very smart and Sai Ramo wrote a book and uh it was about uh winning at tennis. Who here plays tennis? Okay, this is good because as I go around the world now, very few people play tennis anymore. But um what what what Damo said is that there are two kinds of winning tennis players.
If you look at Pete Sampris or uh Nadal or Djokovic, how do they win? The winning champion tennis player wins by hitting winning shots. Hits shots that the opponent can't return. They're either so wellplaced or so strategic or so fast and hard that the opponent can't return them. And if Nadal hits a shot which is not a potential winner, then his opponent can probably put it away because it doesn't have enough difficulty on the ball.
So the the championship tennis player wins by hitting winners. You play tennis, right? How do you win? Do you win? Sometimes. How do you win? If I win, it's by not hitting it out. It's That's right. the amateur tennis player like him and me, we win not by hitting winners, but by avoiding hitting losers.
And we believe that if we can just push it back 20 times and just get it over the net 20 times, our opponent can only do it 19. We believe that that we'll out steady him, outlast him, and eventually he'll hit it into the net or off the court. We'll win the point, but we'll win the point without having hit a winner.
So there are obviously two styles of tennis and so same is true for investing and uh so Charlie Ellis wrote an article called the losers game and he said he thought that in investing so championship tennis is a winner's game. It's won by winners. He thought amateur tennis is a losers game. It's won by the people who avoid being losers.
He thought that Charlie thinks or thought that investing is a losers game. And so the best way to win at tennis is by at investing is by not hitting losers. Now uh I believe also that it's a losers game. Uh not as much as Charlie believes and not for the same reason. Charlie believes that that investing is a losers game.
uh because the market is efficient and securities are priced right. I believe there are inefficiencies. I just think it's hard to consistently take advantage of them and you have to be an exceptional person to take advantage of them on a consistent basis. And uh uh you know the reason that the pro can go for winners is because he is so well schooled and practiced and steady and talented that he knows that if he does this with his foot and this with his hip and this with his elbow and this with his wrist that the ball will go where he wants.
He doesn't worry about miscues uh wind sun in his eyes uh distraction. He's so well schooled. Um, and in fact, you know, in in in scoring tennis matches, they keep track of something called unforced errors. And the reason they keep track of them is because there are so few. The pro doesn't make a lot of unforced errors.
We make unforced errors all the time. And so we have in order to survive, we have to avoid them. So the point is if you're going to be an investor, you have to decide, am I good enough to go for winners or should I emphasize the avoidance of losers in my approach? And then the fourth input uh oh so I I I say here that the difficulty of getting it right is what makes defensive investing so important because it's just for us in investing especially because there's randomness if we do the right thing with our foot and hip and arm and elbow we're not going to get a winner
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