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Tom Lee travels the world, but still appears on CNBC and says that the next big thing for the stock market, and therefore for BMNR, is actually the second quarter earnings, right? Which are very close, and we will talk about who and how will show the results, what is important for BMNR, and much more.
So, let's get started. y videos, you might have missed Tesla at 23, because that's exactly what I was talking about 8 years ago here on YouTube, and that's why my subscribers even invested money from houses and apartments. So maybe it's worth sticking around so I can tell you about the long-term positions I'm taking and how I'm averaging down , which I also did with BMNR.
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You can always see on the website how many free seats are left. . Now let's delve into the most surprising question, okay? The Korean stock market is a bit on hold, isn't it? We see QQQ rising every day, but it doesn't feel like days of euphoria, does it? If you look at Nvidia, Google, and BMR, they go up a little, they go down a little, but they're stuck somewhere around 26, 27 for BMR, or 2700 for Ethereum, right ?
So there is no particular movement. There's always a little rotation where one day a stock in QQQ goes up 5, 6, 7% and it supports the overall market, while other stocks only go up half a percent or a percent, right? Not many stocks are falling, but if you look deeper, we see a lot of stocks, outside of the crypto and tech markets, that are below, you know, even the 200- day and 50-day moving averages.
They are not feeling well, and so the question arises as to when this gap will close and how. Either it will close in the direction of stocks that are falling or have been falling over the past few weeks, or other stocks will catch up with tech stocks, right? So that will be a question, maybe the earnings reports will tell.
After all, earnings reports are always an opportunity for companies to say, “ Hey, we’re doing phenomenally well, aren’t we?” And we've already seen a few reports since the quarter just ended at the end of September. Usually banks are the first to start reporting, right? But before we dive into that, let's see what exactly Tom Lee has to say about the third- quarter earnings.
So let's start with earnings, because you said that earnings for the third quarter will grow by almost 30%. The counterargument is that the second quarter was the best we've had. And profits now have to take into account everything from rising rates to regulation and competition from China. This should manifest itself in some form or another in the forecasts.
Uh, yes and no. I mean, 29% revenue growth in the third quarter—that's really impressive. Maybe half of it will be organic. Um, I think there's a misconception that if growth slows, stocks depreciate. If the S&P can maintain 10% earnings growth forever, the market will grow 10% per year. So, profits don't necessarily have to grow at an accelerated pace .
I think the markets are already skeptical about earnings because the PE ratio has declined this year. Profits for 2027 were forecast at the beginning of the year at 350. Now they are close to 420. Almost 22% increase in profits . The market grew by only 12% . So we have a 10% decrease in PE ratio. This is nominal and real returns.
But at what point does the market, the stock market , start to get concerned about 10-year bonds yielding more than 5%, maybe even higher —at 6%? I mean, the market doesn't like a 5% yield and certainly won't like 6%. This creates enormous pressure and competition for returns compared to stocks. But I think there is a clue.
The fact that the NASDAQ is hitting all-time highs and cryptocurrencies are rising tells me that the rise in returns may be temporary. So, does this mean that markets are used to rates at 5%? And if the Fed, for example, or if the trajectory of rate hikes is measured, that's something that markets can fully accept.
Yes, I mean, 5% is not a problem for the stock market, because the real growth is very strong. Um, I think we're past the peak of inflation. This is kind of the Fed's view , and many economists now emphasize temporary factors affecting the CPI. I really think that 10- year bonds with a yield of 5% are illogical.
You just showed a chart where the yield on French bonds is 4.8% or 4.5%. How can the cost of US debt be 50 basis points higher than France's, right? So I think something very strange is happening in the US. You know, it's quite obvious that there's an impulse play going down against US bonds, which is pushing yields up.
Again, perhaps that's why NASDAQ and cryptocurrencies are rising , because they don't view these rates as long-term. Do September's employment data suggest that the story of the US economy's resilience and exceptionalism is cracking? Yes, the September employment reports confirm the broader trend to some extent.
Previously, job growth was 200,000 per month. In 2026, it averaged about 60,000 per month . I would hardly call this an economic boom. So does the Fed really need to put so much pressure on the economy by raising rates three times this year? So, as you can see, he is quite optimistic. Now, if you look at the reporting calendar, many large banks actually declare this.
Goldman, for example, says that Q3 2026 reports will start coming in the week of October 12th, okay? That is, literally in a few days. The consensus forecast expects S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to grow 27% year-over-year in Q3. The consensus estimate for Q3 growth is the highest before the start of any reporting season since 2021.
However, it's always because of the main driver—AI, right? AI is providing huge growth for many companies, is n't it? However, consensus forecasts point to a slowdown in the third quarter compared to the 33% growth rate achieved earlier, even excluding other capital investment income in the previous quarter.
Neither the latest macroeconomic data nor the signals from the AI investment boom indicate a slowdown in the third quarter, setting the stage for another quarter of above -consensus results, right? So you see we can get another record quarter, beating expectations. As you can see here, several retail companies, like Levi's, sorry, Applied Digital, are reporting as early as this week.
We also have Delta reports on Friday, but overall the reporting season will start a little later. And you see, it will be very interesting to watch the revenues of large , rapidly growing companies. Because in the end , that's all that matters, right? Will we be able to overcome the problems in a market with high inflation?
Can we outgrow the valuation and high- yield bond issues ? This will be a major issue during reporting season, okay? However, Tom Lee's main idea in the video was perhaps cryptocurrency, because crypto is growing, AI is growing, technology is growing. Maybe they see through the fog and say, "Hey, bonds are going to fall, inflation is going to fall, oil prices are going to fall." This could be the start of the next huge upswing , and you don't want to miss it.
And that's why you should also be a part of exitandentry.com. See you tomorrow, and don't forget that the grass is always greener on the other side.
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