저자: 미상 · 한국인
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반도체 랠리가 AI 데이터센터 구조 변화(스케일업→스케일아웃)로 인한 구조적 수요와 공급사의 신중한 증설로 2026년까지 메모리 슈퍼사이클로 이어질 수 있다는 분석. 버블 논쟁은 금리 인하 국면과 경기 저점 신호로 당장은 낮게 평가되나, 경쟁에 따른 과잉 주문과 그 이후의 급격한 가격 조정이 새로운 리스크로 제시됨. 삼성전자 파운드리 수주 회복, SK하이닉스 ADR 상장 추진, 트럼프 정부의 H200 대중 수출 허용 가능성 등이 주요 이슈로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
The market capitalization of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has surged by 465 trillion won in just three months, raising expectations for a memory supercycle in 2026 . AMD CEO Lisa Sul firmly drew a line against the AI bubble theory, and with the possibility of Trump allowing NB-Dia exports to China even being raised, the market is heating up again.
We will now analyze the signals of opportunity in the Santa Rally that began with the return of foreign investors . Reporter Kim Ji-min looked into the related details. hello. This is News Talk. The semiconductor market is literally on fire . Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices are hitting new highs day after day, and the term "supercycle" is dancing in the media again.
We found the related materials you sent to be very interesting to read. The question running through the data ultimately boils down to this: Is this tremendous enthusiasm truly a sustainable bull market? Or is it a shoe fee that could explode at any moment? that's right. Based on the materials you sent, this cycle is definitely showing a different tone compared to the past .
It goes beyond simply increasing demand because the economy is good . The biggest difference is that the fundamental paradigm shift created by AI technology itself lies at the heart of this entire trend . great. So, let us delve deeply into the essence of this hot semiconductor rally, the new forms in which the risks we must guard against based on past experience are manifesting, and the strategies major companies are employing on this massive playing field .
First of all, the first thing that catches your eye in Monimoni is the numbers. Ah, that's right. I was absolutely stunned when I saw the data showing that the combined market capitalization of the two companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, increased by 465 trillion won in just three months . It's a massive scale.
yes . The forecast that a full-scale memory supercycle will arrive in 2026 is being accepted almost as a foregone conclusion, but what exactly is generating such strong expectations? The key driving force must be found in the structural changes of that AI data center . A point that is commonly and repeatedly emphasized in the materials is that data center construction methods are shifting from scale-up to scale-out .
Ah, from scale-up to scale- out? yes . This can be said to be the most important key to understanding this cycle . wait a minute. You mentioned that scale up and scale out are the heart of the second cycle; shall I explain it using an analogy so that our client can clearly grasp the concept ? I found this part very interesting as well.
Ah, that's a good idea. Scalub is like training a genius athlete to be stronger. yes yes . It is a method of providing the best equipment and the best training to keep raising the level one step at a time. In terms of semiconductors, it is like pouring the most expensive, cutting-edge GPUs and HBMs into a single computer .
hmm. hmm. On the other hand, Scale Out is a style where you build a massive team with numerous ordinary players and win through cooperative play. Ah, so you mean the AI model has become so complex and massive that it's like a single superstar basketball player ca n't win the game anymore? That is correct.
Just like how team play where several outstanding players cooperate has become more important. That is exactly it. As AI investment costs have skyrocketed astronomically, the scale-up approach of blindly relying on a single top-of-the-line computer has hit a wall. aha. Instead, scale-out is becoming the trend, which involves connecting numerous cost-effective general servers to create a massive network—or team .
An unexpected butterfly effect occurs here. What is it? The demand for not only high-performance memory like HBM but also general-purpose DRAM and SSDs for those numerous general servers has increased explosively . okay. You are saying that the very nature of demand has changed, but on the other hand, I also have this thought.
If demand explodes like this, couldn't it eventually lead to an oversupply, with everyone rushing to build factories just like in the past ? Ah, it reminds me of that nightmare of the price crash in 2018 . That is a very sharp point. However, this time, a distinctly different picture from the past is emerging on the supply side as well .
The expression "order first, then expansion" mentioned by SK Hynix in the data says it all. Pre-order followed by expansion? yes . It literally means that we will receive definite orders from customers first and expand production facilities only to match that volume. It seems to be a kind of learning effect.
So, having suffered greatly from oversupply in 2018, it seems they won't make any hasty moves now. That's right . But will the strategy of holding off for now and waiting, no matter how heated the market gets, actually be stuck to? Won't you feel anxious if the factory next door starts expanding ? The key will be overcoming that temptation.
However, at least so far, memory manufacturers are maintaining a very cautious attitude . Thanks to this, a supplier- dominated market was formed where market dominance shifted to the suppliers. There is growing support for the view that this trend will continue at least until 2026 . All right. Demand is becoming structurally robust, and supply is being cleverly regulated .
Even though analyses suggest strong fundamentals, whenever prices surge in the short term, bubble controversies always rear their heads. It's always like that. Looking at the data, AMD CEO Lisa Lisa dismissed the bubble theory, saying that AI is just getting started, but the former Intel CEO showed a subtly different perspective, stating that while it is a bubble, it will take a few years to burst .
The very fact that such conflicting opinions are emerging seems to show just how hot the market is right now. The interesting point here is that the data do not view the conditions for a bubble collapse as simply being too expensive . Oh, then does that mean there are other conditions? yes . Analyzing past cases points out that for a bubble to burst, usually two conditions must be met simultaneously.
It is precisely the full-scale downturn of the economic cycle and the central bank's strong monetary tightening. But the current situation is closer to the exact opposite. you're right. This is because there are many analyses suggesting that the economy has bottomed out and entered a recovery phase, and the central bank is actually preparing for monetary easing.
That is precisely why the prevailing view is that the possibility of a bubble conflict in the traditional sense is low for the time being . However, that does n't mean we can be completely at ease, as the data presents a very interesting scenario . What kind of scenario is it? The risk was a different form from the past—specifically, the supply bottleneck phenomenon resulting from the unexpected side effects caused by competition .
Supply bottlenecks? Are you saying that the supply is insufficient? Uh, it's a little different. It refers to a phenomenon where the market is dominated not by an actual shortage of supply, but by the fear that supply will become insufficient . A sense of fear? Yes. It is analyzed that this scenario could begin as cracks appear in the stronghold of NBDI, which currently monopolizes the AI chip market .
For example, powerful competitors like Google's TPU or AMD's new products are entering the market in earnest . Isn't it a good thing to have competitors? As the monopoly breaks, prices can also stabilize . It means that chaos could come in stages. Big tech companies that have been looking only to Nvidia are starting to get anxious .
Uh, the competitor's chips over there look pretty good too. What if Google or Amazon flocks over there and sweeps up all the HBM ? Oh, is n't that going to mean I won't have any left to use? The moment this sense of fear arises, a war to secure inventory breaks out. Oh, that reminds me of the shipping price surge that brought the whole world to a standstill in 2021 .
It's in a similar context. It’s like booking a container ship just for the future, even though it’s not really necessary. Just like the psychology of hoarding toilet paper at the supermarket. that's right. So, it seems that orders are being placed much more than are actually needed—in other words, overordering is taking place .
Did you see that correctly? If such over-ordering occurs, memory prices could skyrocket beyond imagination in the short term. However, history shows that the end of such panic buying cycles has always led to sharp price corrections . hmm. As we head toward 2026, this is precisely the variable we need to watch much more closely than a simple bubble debate .
okay. Now, let's take a look at the movements of individual companies. Amidst this massive trend, they are moving very swiftly for their own survival and growth . In particular, the analysis that Samsung Electronics has fired the starting gun for a revival in its foundry, or semiconductor contract manufacturing, business, where it had been struggling, stood out.
yes that's right. You 've been through a lot of emotional distress lately because you were losing out to TSMC. yes . The decisive factor was the sequence of the 4-difficulty process, known as the Ma section. So, the goal was to stabilize the ratio of good products at over 60% . ah. You've finally captured the demand.
That's right. Based on this technical confidence, they have been producing notable results recently . As mentioned in the data, a prime example is securing a 140 billion won contract with Chavolite, a promising U.S. AI startup, following Tesla's next-generation autonomous driving chip . oh . This can be interpreted as a very important signal that we are regaining the trust of clients that we had lost for some time, going beyond just the single order amount .
SK Hynix's moves were also interesting. There is news that they are pursuing the issuance of ADI in order to list on the US NASDAQ . How should this be interpreted from an investor's perspective ? Declaration of ADRs (American Depositary Receipts). You can think of it as a certificate designed to allow U.S.
investors to easily trade SK Hynix shares in dollars. yes . The biggest advantage is that it provides an opportunity to have your company value properly assessed in the U.S. market . Ah, I'm getting my money's worth. yes . Compared to competitor Micron Technology, it can narrow the gap where it has been undervalued, and it also becomes much more advantageous for attracting excellent U.S.
talent and capital . It probably is n't all advantages. Are there no dangerous women? Of course. The biggest burden is that it will be directly subject to the strict regulations of U.S. securities laws . uh . In particular, you may be exposed to the risk of class action lawsuits filed by investors when stock prices fall .
Ah, the risk of litigation is increasing. And it is a strategy that is, so to speak, like a double-edged sword, as it also requires considering the risk that the company's core technology or trade secrets could be leaked externally during the litigation process . Here, another really unpredictable variable has emerged.
It is precisely the geopolitical risk of President Trump's policy toward China. yes that's right. There was news that the export of Nvidia's high-performance AI chip, the H200, to China has been permitted. In fact, while this measure appears on the surface to be an easing of U.S. semiconductor regulations against China, a closer look reveals that it has a high potential to be significantly financially beneficial news for our companies .
Oh, why is that? The H210 contains as many as six high-performance HBM 3s. Wow, the sixth one? yes . For Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the undisputed leaders in the HBM market, this serves as a direct factor for revenue growth . Ah, I suppose there would be other effects at the same time . you're right.
If China can easily obtain finished chips from the U.S., its motivation to invest massive amounts of money and time in developing its own AI chips may weaken. Ah, I see. It could also have the side effect of dampening China's rise in the semiconductor industry . The market assesses this as a decision that could be a winning hand for our semiconductor companies in many ways.
So , let's wrap up today's story . Based on the materials you provided, a deep look into the current semiconductor market suggests that this can be interpreted as a new upward cycle distinct from the past, driven by strong demand stemming from structural changes in AI data centers and the clever supply management of suppliers who have learned from past failures.
yes . The overall outlook for the market, including Wall Street, is also very positive. However, we must remember that the form of danger we need to be wary of has changed . The form of the danger has changed. yes . Rather than a scenario like the past where a bubble built on vague expectations bursts in an instant, it is now time to pay close attention to much more complex volatility factors, such as over-ordering triggered by fierce competition among Big Tech companies and the subsequent sharp adjustments .
Lastly, I would like to wrap up by posing a question worth pondering. Yes. If the most fundamental force driving this massive bull market is ultimately competition among Big Tech companies, how would a single small crack appearing in that competitive landscape affect the entire cycle? According to the data, there was information stating that SK Hynix is flexibly adjusting its HBM4 mass production plans in preparation for the possibility of delays in the launch schedule for MBBI's next-generation chips .
hmm. There was. Conversely, doesn't this mean that a change in plans by a single company like Nvidia could shake up the supercycle of the entire memory market? It made me question whether this massive structure might be much more vulnerable than we think . That was the news so far. I listened carefully to both of your remarks.
We will be back next time with more great content for . How did you all see it? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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