저자: InvestingMadeSimple채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 2월 캐시 우드 월간 리포트를 요약하면, 연준 금리인상 우려가 주식·암호화폐 조정의 핵심 원인이며 시장은 아직 금리인상 전에 공포 매도 중이라는 결론이다. 금리 인상 전망: 인플레이션(CPI 전년比 7%)이 임금 상승으로 시스템에 내재화되는 중이며, 통화·재정 측면에서 이미 상당한 긴축이 진행 중이라고 진단했다. 통화량 지표: 통화증가율은 코로나 정점 27%에서 최근 13%로 둔화됐고, 3개월 기준 8%, 6.5%(2개월)로 더 낮아졌으며 향후 더 둔화될 것으로 봤다. 금리 경로: 3월 인상 가능성을 언급했고, 시장에서는 50bp 인상이 신호탄이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 이후 추가 인상은 제한적일 수 있다고 전망했다. 시장 반응: 전략가들이 향후 3~7회 인상을 거론하며 경쟁적으로 높은 예측을 내놓고 있어 과도한 공포가 반영된 상태로 해석했다. 암호화폐: 비트코인·이더리움은 주식과 함께 조정 중이나 장기적으로 상관관계는 낮아 분산투자 자산으로 가치가 있다고 평가했다. 2022년 빅 아이디어에서 화폐혁명·금융혁명·차세대 인터넷(메타버스) 혁명 3가지로 정의했다. 장기 전망: 암호화폐 시가총액이 10년 내 약 50조 달러(연복리 43%)까지 성장할 수 있으며, 비트코인 30조 달러(코인당 100만 달러 이상), 이더리움 20조 달러(현재 대비 약 75배) 가능성을 제시했다. 금리 인상의 업종별 영향: 장기국채금리가 2~3% 수준으로 오를 경우 경쟁에 직면한 성숙 성장기업이 먼저 타격을 받고, 폭발적 성장 초기 기업은 상대적으로 덜하다는 가치투자자들의 의견을 소개했다. 또한 사적 시장(private market)의 파괴적 혁신 기업 밸류에이션은 1년간 두 배 가까이 올랐다고 언급했다. 진행자 결론: 금리인상 공포를 두려워할지, 인플레이션 방어처를 찾을지 시청자에게 질문하며 마무리했다.
다듬은 글
once a month kathy wood releases her market update report which covers everything from monetary policy fiscal policy as well as what's going on in the different markets and as always i like to pull out the key insights and takeaways on basically anything that could impact the prices of crypto or stocks and last week was a crazy week we had facebook dropping a huge 26 wiping off 230 billion dollars in just one day and this was caused by the fear facebook has now peaked in users and now inflation is running at the highest level it's been for over 40 years and stocks and crypto have been pulling back after a record run in 2021 so the key takeaways that we'll be looking at this month these interest rate hikes this is one of the big topics going on right now then the crypto update for february and then we're going to finish with a little bit of insider info as cathy woods sought the advice of some of her value investor friends on how these interest rate hikes are going to affect the prices of crypto and stocks as always if you do enjoy anything in the video then drop a like always appreciated okay first up with interest rates soaring to near 40-year highs the main tool the fed has in their toolkit is to raise interest rates and everybody's speculating on how many times they'll raise it and by how much ready let's do this i know that uh this fear that inflation at seven percent uh which is the cpi right now on a year-over-year basis uh is getting embedded into the system because wages are rising and so forth uh and uh so what we're seeing on the monetary and fiscal front right now is effectively significant tightening already on the monetary front we've seen money growth go from 27 at its peak during the coronavirus the depths of the coronavirus uh to 13 recently but if you look at it um a little more closely uh and at a in a shorter term time horizon we're down to eight percent growth uh on a three-month basis six and a half percent on a two-month basis and uh we we believe that uh money growth will continue to slow quite significantly especially if the fed does raise interest rates now we wouldn't be surprised to see the interest rates go up in march uh many people after today's employment report are beginning to think that 50 basis points is the number that the fed will basically telegraph that it means business and that it's going to head inflation off at the pass they may do that and if they do however we think the stars are aligning in such a way that they will get the message very quickly that they don't need to do much more so they might want to do the 50 basis points just to say okay we're done for a while now what's interesting about the market's uh reaction to this possibility is that strategists out in our world are now uh trying to leapfrog each other saying okay i think it's at least three more tightenings after that or four i've even heard altogether seven so uh the reaction you've seen in the equity market recently is is a uh is fear i think that the fed is going to go too far too fast so this is one of the big things going on right now which is impacting the prices of crypto and stocked these interest rate hikes and basically we're coming off an exuberant year in 2021 where there was amazing gains in the s p and crypto but now inflation is getting out of control and to combat this the fed needs to raise interest rates and pull back on the easy money creation and this has led to some fear selling with risk-based assets seeing the biggest drops and so the questions everyone are now speculating on are how many rate hikes are they gonna do and by how much and then even more importantly how is this going to impact the prices of crypto and stocks and remember the drops we've had so far are people just panicking about the threat of rate hikes we've not even had any yet now cathy wood did share some insider information on how the rate hikes will affect crypto and stocks which we'll cover in a sec but next up is kathy's crypto update for february on the innovation front and and on uh market indicators uh crypto cryptocurrencies bitcoin ether uh they they have corrected uh with the equity markets more and more hedge funds are involved in them so when the market corrects we do see higher correlations these days although uh over a full market cycle uh the correlations uh the correlation between crypto assets and any other asset is extremely low um which means for diversification purposes uh crypto is a very interesting asset in our big ideas uh 2022 you will see uh how we break out crypto our understanding is evolving and uh we are are able to describe it in three ways a money revolution a financial revolution and a next generation internet or metaverse uh revolution so if that piques your interest do take a look at our big ideas 2022.
um i'm very proud of our research our research is unlike anything else you'll see out there you will see ours because we give it away uh again unlike uh most other firms uh meaning we give it all away so just mentioning that crypto is going through a big correction and that they recently gave away extensive crypto research which i did do dedicated videos on last week and for those who missed them the one minute version of their deep crypto analysis was this they expect the crypto market to get to 50 trillion dollars over the next 10 years growing a compounded rate of 43 they see bitcoin having a potential to get to 30 trillion dollars giving the price per bitcoin to over 1 million dollars per coin and ethereum having a potential market cap of 20 trillion dollars which would be a 75 x from today so clearly still very bullish on crypto okay to finish up one of the big questions right now is how will these rate hikes affect the prices in crypto and stocks well kathy woods seeked counsel from some of her close value investor friends and this is what they said now i have spoken to uh some really good uh value investors um you know who've been doing this all their lives and asked them you know is if interest rates were to move into the two to three percent range let's say as measured by the long-term treasury yield which parts of the market given where we are now uh would be hit and uh the the answer that i found most interesting and that i i think we've just uh seen in facebook is it would be the more mature growth companies that are facing some competition and um and not the the super growth companies that are just entering into uh their uh exponential growth trajectories uh so again another argument for new new growth uh and the private markets know it because private market valuations have only gone up over the last year we're writing a paper gathering the data on this right now but in the last year as true disruptive innovation strategies depreciated 50 or more uh private market which is uh around which focuses on disruptive innovation private market valuations seems to have doubled there's really something wrong with that picture and i think the private markets have it more right there's more innovation uh taking place today uh than there ever has been in history so after an explosive year for the s p and crypto inflation has begun to get out of control to combat this the best tool the fed has in their toolkit is to pull back on cheap borrowing and raise interest rates just the threat of these hikes was enough to cause a correction in stocks and a big pullback in crypto however kathy woods still remains extremely bullish on the crypto market and sees it doing a 30x over the next several years to a market cap of around 50 trillion dollars and according to her value investor informants raising interest rates actually impacts big tech a lot more than small tech so there you are guys i hope you enjoyed so do you think we should be fearing these interest rate hikes or should we be looking for a place for protection from inflation let me know your thoughts below but for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does if you haven't yet subscribed click below and join us got some great videos coming up that you don't want to miss okay cheers guys thanks for watching and i'll see you in the next video bye for now you
댓글 0