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Ray Dalio's Warning: How to prepare for the economic collapse

Personal Finance · 2024-11-15 · 유튜브 시청 549 · Board Views 8 · International

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welcome to the personal finance podcast today um we're going to be diving into the mind of Ray Doo Oh yeah this is a guy who built like the world's biggest hedge fund from scratch right yeah from nothing and doo he's seen it all when it comes to like their markets ups and downs right yeah and right now he's waving a big red flag saying there's a storm coming an economic storm yeah and you know what's really interesting about this what's that doio he isn't just like some chicken little running around you know saying the sky is falling this is a guy he's got a really deep understanding of economic Cycles like he's been navigating these things successfully for decades yeah he knows what he's talking about so when he talks I think we should all like listen up you know yeah exactly so let's step into Doo's world for a bit okay he's ringing these alarm Bells yeah but what exactly does he see happening well at the heart of it at the core of Doo's warning it's this concept of debt he argu is that societies we have this tendency more and more to pile up debt like crazy like it's going out of style it's easy to do governments businesses us as individuals everybody's doing it but here's the thing this whole debt fueled party right it can't last forever yeah someone's going to pay the piper eventually eventually right the Music Stops and that's when things can get a bit messy so we're all riding this debt powered roller coaster and Doo's telling us to like buckle up yeah see because when debt levels are low borrowing that's not always a bad thing right it can be good it fuels growth people can invest keeps the wheels turning it's like the grease but when debt gets out of control that's when it turns into this huge anchor weighs everything down dragging us all down with it exactly so how does this whole debt spiral thing actually work like what's the Chain Reaction he's worried about okay so imagine this okay you're borrowing borrowing borrowing more and more money you're not even using it to invest or grow or anything like that you're just using the new debt to pay off the old debt just to stay afloat exactly you're stuck this vicious cycle you need more and more debt just to like keep your head above water and that's when creditors they start getting nervous yeah they don't want to lent to you anymore exactly interest rates they go up which makes it even harder right and the economy it just starts to sputter like an old engine and people businesses nobody wants to take on more debt because it's just too expensive that's where Delio's warning the Federal Reserve comes in right yeah this is a big one yeah he's really concerned about the fed you know stepping in and just creating more money basically out of thin air to buy back bonds which it sounds good in theory it can provide like a quick little boost sure yeah there's always a but it's risky the big risk here is inflation inflation right think about it you got all this extra money floating around but you don't have more goods and services to buy right supply and demand what happens price is Skyrocket suddenly your money is not worth as much that loaf of bread you used to buy way more expensive that's inflation eating away at your buying power you know yeah that's scary and doo is saying this inflation he thinks it could get even worse yeah especially with the next downturn with the next downturn which he's predicting could be right around the corner which is it's a sobering thought it is a sobering thought so what do we do what's the game plan here how do we prepare for this potential economic storm well Alo he's a big believer in something he calls finding uncorrelated return streams okay now I know that sounds kind of complicated a little jargony but it's actually pretty straightforward think of it like having a side hustle okay like a backup plan exactly something that does well when your main job is maybe not doing so hot so if one income stream dips the other one keeps you afloat you got it it's all about diversifying you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket right all right don't put all your eggs in one basket that's classic advice but Doo he takes it a step further oh he does he does he doesn't just stop there he does not so we're talking about spreading our investments right diversifying diversifying across different asset classes exactly what kind of things is Doo recommending we include in this mix well he's a big fan of gold oh gold yeah yeah you see gold has this really interesting history of like holding its value especially when things get a little rocky you know economically like when the markets going crazy exactly like when markets go Haywire Doo he actually Compares owning gold to having like a get out of jail free card a get out of jail free card I like that right because gold it's a tangible asset it's not tied to like any specific government or currency so which is kind of appealing when you think about it like if things really went South when those systems start looking shaky it's like that one friend you can always count on no matter what's happening that reliable friend yeah and then alongside gold Doo says consider those inflation indexed bonds okay inflation indexed bonds tell me more about those so these bonds they're designed to kind of protect you against inflation offer some stability if the value of the dollar takes a hit so gold and these inflation index bonds those are like two of the main pillars of Doo's strategy here yeah for weathering that Financial storm but he doesn't stop there oh there's more he's got some interesting thoughts about stuff like alternative Investments especially when it comes to bitcoin Bitcoin yeah everyone's talking about Bitcoin right and his view on bitcoin it's interesting it's nuanced he gets it you know cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin they can have a place maybe in a diversified portfolio sure but he's also quick to point out the downsides yeah because it's not all sunshine and rainbows right exactly he's not like a Bitcoin evangelist or anything right he sees it as a much smaller Market compared to you know the more established assets mean which means it can be really volatile oh yeah it can go up and down like CPP up and down yeah like a roller coaster and he's also he's not totally sold on the whole privacy thing really he argues that governments they can still track transactions even with Bitcoin even with Bitcoin and they can tax it so it's not as Anonymous as people think that's what he's saying so yeah for Doo it seems like gold yeah it's still the more reliable that safe haven asset even now with everything going digital even in this day and age huh yeah so he sees gold as this Timeless thing that's how he sees it it's endured for centuries right and it's not controlled by any single government right which is kind of a big deal for him it gives it that autonomy you know which really aligns with his whole philosophy okay so let's bring this home for our listeners right yeah someone's listening right now feeling anxious about the economy they're worried worried yeah they want to protect their money what's the takeaway here what is this all mean that's the million dooll question isn't it look I think what dollia is trying to say is be prepared be prepared okay it doesn't matter if the econom is about to totally collapse or whatever it's always smart to have a plan right always good to have a plan this means diversify look into those alternative assets like gold MH and be mindful of your debt don't let debt drag you down don't let it be that anchor exactly yeah it's almost like he's he's built this system he has this like personal operating system like a decision- making machine for making decisions especially with money yeah when it comes to like the ups and downs of the market he's all about like taking the emotion out of it you know because that's usually what trips people up right emotions yeah they get in the way dollo believes if you have this like systematic almost like an algorithm for making decisions it leads to you know better results over time makes sense it's more consistent right now I know it might sound a little I don't know a little rigid a little rigid yeah at first but think about it you're faced with this really complex financial decision wouldn't it be nice yeah to have some guidance to have like a set of rules you know already there to guide you it's like that mental checklist exactly especially when you're freaking out well when the fear kicks in yeah you got to take a step back silence that noise way the monkey mind and tap into that that more rational part of yourself you know be logical about it and this whole thing this focus on principles on systems it's not just for investing for finance Doo he applies this to everything really like his whole life his work his life everything it's like a framework for dealing with you know the messiness of life that uncertainty it's funny how we started talking about you know economic crashes right and gold and now we're we're getting all philosophical it's all connected yeah but decision- making and principles it's it's pretty cool actually it is it shows how much Doo how much he thinks about these things he's a big picture thinker he is and he understands that yeah these macr Trends they matter like the economy the economy for sure but it's also about but it's also about us our own our own minds how we operate how we deal with risk how we learn it's all important it is this has been this has been a really insightful Deep dive I think it has it's been fun we've covered so much ground you know Doo's warning about the economy building a strong portfolio how to protect ourselves how to think about risk even how our brains work yeah all this stuff it's it's a lot to process but I feel like take it one step at a time yeah we've gained some valuable insights we have and you know what I think the biggest takeaway what's that is that uncertainty is just part of the game that's life right that's life especially when it comes to money yeah there will be UPS there will be Downs always but if we understand those risks mhm if we're prepared take action and we think long term right play the long game we can weather those storm we can handle it we got this yeah well said well said so there you have it another Deep dive a crash course in navigating the economic Waters with Ray Doo as our captain exactly with Ray Doo as our guide his insights are they're a good reminder they are that a little bit of preparation it goes a long way a little prep goes a long way absolutely thanks for listening everybody thanks for tuning in for more tips and insights on Personal Finance follow us and stay tuned for more episodes see you next time

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