저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 단기 시장 예측은 무의미하며 장기 투자와 기본적 분석(재무·사업 이해)이 핵심이라는 주장. 개인 투자자의 태도: 주식을 단기 도박처럼 다루는 것은 위험하며, 냉장고를 살 때만큼 조사하라고 강조. 기본 분석: 재무제표(부채, 현금, 적자 여부)를 확인하고 사업 내용을 이해해야 하며, 이해 못 하는 종목은 하락 시 잘못된 결정을 하기 쉬움. 종목 선별: 지수 내에서 점차 개선되는 기업, 또는 S&P500 밖의 성장 기업(예: 카맥스, 200배 상승 언급)을 찾고, 쇠퇴 산업(철강, 석유, 시어스 등)은 회피. 시장 예측 불가: 시장은 장기적으로 우상향하나 단기 예측은 낭비이며, 1~2년 내 향방은 알 수 없다고 명시. 산업 사이클: 산업은 호황에서 불황으로 급변하며, 바닥 신호를 기다리기보다 회복 초기 주기를 노려야 한다는 취지. 경영자 평가: 문제 해결형 경영자(페더럴 익스프레스, 크라이슬러 등)의 특징과 경청, 끈기와 고집의 차이 강조. 투자 자세: 자만(complacency), 우려(concern), 항복(capitulation)의 3C를 경계하고, 하락 시 펀더멘털이 악화되지 않았다면 추가 매수 가능. 버핏 관련: 버핏과 친분을 언급하며 투자 철학에 차이는 있지만 둘 다 유효하다는 입장. 장기 전망: 기업이익 성장률 약 7~8%를 가정하면 장기 수익이 기대되며, 10년물 금리 2% 이상 상황에서 주식이 향후 10~30년간 가장 좋은 투자처라는 견해. 리스크: 단기 자금이 필요한 경우 주식 투자는 부적합하며, 장기 투자 기간이 확보되어야 함.
다듬은 글
computer driven things you know people buy stocks for a second and only for a second yeah i think i i think that's a waste of time i don't think i think it's disruptive well it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term yeah and i was running magellan one out every 100 americans was in the fund yeah these are people that five thousand dollars and ten thousand dollars was a huge deal too so when the market went down you felt really badly i mean it's really the the pressure on you when it's average people's money yeah that's overwhelming and you're nice enough to say nice things about magellan but in those 13 years 10 times it declined over 10 percent you know but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet if you if you could add eight and eight get fairly close to 16 you find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble you should know it so a little bit of research people carefully buy a refrigerator you can't take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand dollars some stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you were seeing gap when it was hot you were saying aluminum was hot we've seen what was not had we've seen when they were starting people weren't excited about gaap anymore or then you do some research say well gee there's a lot of limited stores but we're only at 20.
you know they can go to 400. so you you see a company i did really well dunkin donuts a local company i do well with stop and shop but people can see that this is really some people showing up or gets the sunglass hot no one's there anymore so i mean that's research that's fundamentals so you don't leave the mall though and by that day you have to do some more work well the way you beat the index is you avoid the stocks to go down you avoid the steel companies and the oil companies and sears and penny and where the companies are deteriorated i mean companies are dynamic behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so we you're trying to find the companies within the s p 500 that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crabby to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time and you're trying to avoid the companies that are going south that's how you beat them or you find some companies outside the sp500 that are that are great companies carmax was not in the s p 500 they went up 200 fold so a lot of times they enter and a lot of their great performances before they go in 1989 i'm at home in the phone rings and that was one of my friends but one of my daughters and your six-year-old annie picked up and said she just there's a mr buffett online i said this could be a joke i pick it up and this this warren buffett i'm from omaha nebraska you know i read your book my aim reports doing two weeks i use a line you say that all in about seven seconds and i said that's great i'd love to do it what you know what's the line he said i love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your great companies and add to the losers it's like watering the weeds and cutting the flowers he said i want to put it in he said if you ever come to nebraska don't call me you nailed me mud all over nebraska i have also enjoyed reading the two books by peter lynch and i see a lot of commonalities between the two of you the way you think and your philosophy etc i'd certainly appreciate it if you'd make a few comments on what you think of peter lynch the things he says in his two books and the advice that he gives to investors well i know peter i don't know him well but i but we played bridget together in omaha as a matter of fact and i i like him personally and obviously he has an outstanding record and he has written those two books which have been best sellers about his investment philosophy i don't really have anything i'm not going to embroider on his we there is a there there's there's certainly a fair amount of overlap there's some difference peter obviously likes to diversify a lot more than that i mean he he owns more stocks than the names of companies i can remember i mean but but that's peter and i uh you know i uh i've said in in investing that in the past that there's more than one way to get to heaven and that there there isn't a true religion in this but there are some very useful religions and uh peter's got one and i think we've got one that's useful too and there is a lot of overlap but i would not do as well if i tried to do it the way peter does it he probably wouldn't do as well if he tried to do it exactly the way i do it i like him personally very much several times we play bridge together we've had several meetings great guy well obviously the market's market's gone up tenfold since i stopped running magellan so you make more money on the upside the market's been a lot higher than 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now trying to predict the market is really a waste i don't know what's going to do it can go down when i ran magellan 13 years declined 10 or more nine times the market wow i had a perfect record i went down more than 10 every time where the market went down and went down more but over the long term the upside is more than the downside so you're going to say something do i need the money in the next month do i need money next year do i have kids going to college they have a wedding coming up then you're a bad investor if you can keep putting money in you have 5 10 15 20 25 year you should do well i saw the textile industry the tier 8 i i was recommending all the stocks on the way down i saw the shoe industry go away industries the industries can go from terrific to terrible it's a great expression in the intestinal industry that helped me a lot textile industry yeah it's always darkest before pitch black just don't think things are terrible they get terrible squared i mean so just because industry's getting bad that's not a recent vest wait for things to get better because again somebody might be involved in still it might be involved in coal they might involve in iron ore they might involved in plastics they'll see an aluminum pickup before i do so you might that's a cyclical turnaround that might last two or three years you might see it way before wall street season on the positive side information to the public is so much more available today when a company releases their numbers and they have a call it's open the web to everybody right all the information we used to wait for the mail to come to see what nike's inventories were like you know i mean you find out we get in in our library in the first class mail so all this information so the investing for the average person now is much clearer they know the same thing as i do yeah they all it's a you don't want to invest in companies balance sheet is you know they get eight billion in debt and you know they have no no cash and losing money that's a terrible combination you get all the information out so information is a lot better than it was the key thing is when the stock goes from ten to six if you understand what they do and you know they're financially solvent you're fine if you don't understand it you can call the psychic hotline but if you don't understand it you're probably going to do the wrong thing you know if you understand exactly what they're doing instagram 10 to 6 you'll buy more if you're confused to start with you'll say well there must be something wrong there and then you you're out and a lot of times stocks are going to decline i mean some of my best stocks were going from 18 to eight then to sometimes to 40 and some were gone from 18 to zero but at least i wasn't adding to it on the way to zero a lot of times so if it's going down you're not adding to it i mean sometimes you are if the fundamentals are getting better are the same yeah but if they're deterring i'm going to leave imagine if you're in a mall the last 30 years yes you would have seen the gap you would have seen best buy you would have seen exactly circuit city you've seen these companies crowded doing something better and they're buying biotechnology stocks are oil companies it makes no sense if you're in the steel industry you see it go from awful to better yeah why don't you buy it but what do great managers do well there's there's two types that you have fred smith who comes up with an idea called federal express right then he had to grow it and that's really tricky sometimes people can just do the idea part he did all the parts right then as lee iacocca had to turn around and trouble with chrysler and and even more challenging a giant company like general electric to make something good better i mean that's really hard so all these people basically were problem solvers and they and they had to manage people and one of the things that surprised people they don't understand the definition of management it's getting things done through others it's a lot easier to do something yourself if you have somebody else do it lots of people obviously you're managing people and sometimes you have to encourage them sometimes you have to just push them a little harder people are basically encouraged but you have to understand what they want you have to work with them you have to explain yourself you have to set goals and you have to be a leader yourself and you have to put a lot of effort into it and you have to be make say make mistakes and there's a there's a real amazing difference between being persistent and being stubborn and i think great leaders to say this is persistence is good stubbornness assistance is terrific but do great managers listen yes they do absolutely category else so can you be greedy in your business yeah i think sometimes you you i i call it the three c's it's called complacency concern and capitulation so you complacent is the i don't agree just everything's going right you sort of forget to check the facts you say things are starting to slip in the company not the fundamentals they're starting to mature the same competitor is coming along so being complacent is the worst one and is that the one that that happens most often yeah well if unless you're working hard if you're working hard you're always checking with competitors you're checking with customers suppliers you're trying to do work to find out is this company still early am i does they have years and years of growth ahead of them then you stay with it you know the stuff goes down you asked a question earlier about ability to listen right i think that's the still because when you're talking to a company if you ask all these questions it's like a monologue then you say at the end is it something i've forgotten or to do you don't want to you want to have them say by the way a year ago when you were looking to see what what things are going to be like how has it come out you know what have been surprises for you so i'm always listening to what people say so it's more listening rather than asking and also being nice almost none of it was pension from it was almost all individual speech right it was it was incredible that thrill yeah i got letters to when the market went down 87 my phone went down like a rock yeah people were writing letters to me cheering me up okay oh yeah no complaints mr lynch you've done well for me yeah no hang in there hanging there boys no it's amazing don't give up now peter no it was i meet these people all the time all at airports all around they're still it was wonderful it was the greatest thrill of my life our children and my wife managing money for other people now we've also we've seen new highs right i think the market is fairly priced on what's happening right now you have to say yourself is five years from now ten years from now corporate profits are grown about seven or eight percent a year that means they double but including dividends but every ten years quadruple every twenty go up eight fold every forty you know it's i think that's the kind of numbers you're interested that's been a ten-year bond today is full over two percent so i think the stock market's the best place to be for the next 10 20 30 years the next two years no i've never known what the next two years are going to bring what do you want to accomplish in the next year of your life well i really like to work with my wife and still find take some more vacation time yeah and so what do you do on vacation well we would like to see something new this year we went to turkey in which it was fascinating istanbul and but not just oh yeah remarkable always enjoy seeing peter lynch
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