저자: ChrisMark · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 실패 교훈과 금 매수 소식을 소개하며, 금·은 시장 조작과 위기 가능성을 근거로 금 보유를 긍정적으로 본다. 달리오 관련 소개: 브리지워터(약 1,600억 달러 운용) 창업자 달리오가 창업 8년 후 파산을 겪었고, 1982년 대공황 전망이 빗나가 큰 손실을 본 일화를 언급했다. 이후 18년간 강세장과 고성장이 이어졌다고 설명. 정책·위험 진단: 달리오는 정치적·경제적 위험이 충분히 가격에 반영되지 않았다고 경고하고, 포트폴리오의 5~10%를 금에 배분하라고 권고했다는 점을 소개. 진행자는 정치 리스크(북한, 트럼프)에는 일부 동의. 안전자산 비교: 달러·엔화·미국채는 과도한 통화 발행과 부채 문제로 금보다 안전성이 낮다는 논리를 제시. 1980년과 달리 현재는 연준·일본은행이 금리를 인상하기보다 인하하는 환경이라고 평가. 금·은 시장 전망: 금·은이 과거 사상 최고가 후 조정을 받았으며, 진행자는 금·은 시장이 조작되었고 버블과 위기가 올 것이라고 주장. 다만 특정 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 견해: 진행자는 10년간 대체 경제관을 연구했고 금·은 조작을 확신한다고 밝히며, 반대 의견도 검토한다고 말함. 달리오의 금 매수는 긍정적 신호로 해석. 마무리: 진행자는 성공한 투자자들의 방식을 분석하고 토론할 것을 권하며 영상을 마무리.
다듬은 글
hello there my friends Chris mark is from Arkady economics here with you today on Tuesday September 19th which I'm sure everyone is excited to know is also doubling as international Talk Like a Pirate Day our so with that said today we have a quick video that Ray Dalio who is pretty well-known investor he heads what is Bridgewater which yes is the world's largest hedge fund I thought that it might be and that's what the CNBC article is saying here have about a hundred sixty billion dollars under management so certainly a successful investor and I've come across a couple news stories involving him recently that I thought especially in today's environment could be relevant as I was reading them they were impactful to me certainly some of the challenges I'm working through in life and think that everybody is especially anyone who's participating in these markets which aren't the simplest thing to resolve right now but anyway every once in a while I have a few good ideas kicked through and one of the things that I've always found most helpful not just an investing I'm also a musician I've done the same thing with playing guitar really doing anything where I like going out and seeing finding people who are already whatever it is that I may want to do we're doing it successfully you look at what they do what they found their keys to success it doesn't mean you have to copy everything that they do but certainly you can learn a lot and along those lines let's dig into a few comments that we found in these articles here about write that hopefully will be more helpful than anything that I could add here hopefully I'll be able add something of value to either case starts mentioning that he actually went broke eight years after he started his firm yet he felt that was the best thing that ever happened to him the quote here was my failure is one of the best things that ever happened to me because it gave me the humility I needed and apparently I guess one of his turning points was how in 1982 he was confident in protecting the global economy was heading towards a depression and he traded accordingly then he goes on to say it was dead wrong the stock market began a big bull around and over the next 18 years the US economy enjoyed the greatest not inflationary growth period in history my experience over this period was like a series of blows to the head with a baseball bat being so wrong and especially so publicly Rahm was incredibly humbling and cost me just about everything I built at Bridgewater so hopefully that doesn't mean that we're getting the current situation wrong but you know a lot of what he says there reminds me of my feelings about the housing bubble ten years ago remember sitting around thinking you know a gun worked at a couple Wall Street shops got into Wharton Business School and when it all happened it seemed on one hand as if wait a second wasn't that a guy that should have been trained to have seen all these things fortunately it was still breaking away from the Keynesian Wall Street conditioning and didn't see it but again that was another example where seeking out the guys that had seen what was happening understanding what they were looking at that and learning from that which is my understanding of what ray is saying here and sometimes those those misses you know not so much fun at the time although in hindsight we can see how they're helpful going forward also fascinating the example he mentions in 1982 of course that was following in 1980 when we saw gold and silver go what with an all-time highs which was a situation similar to what we have now or perhaps more appropriately what we were seeing in 2011 before as far as I can tell you had a pretty blatant manipulation of the metals which brought the prices lower but the difference was that back in 1980 Paul Volcker came and raised interest rates to 20% and that's what I don't see happening this time but why yeah there were a lot of signs that the depression would have been coming so rain was right and seeing that although perhaps the different type of central bank environment where there they actually do raise rates as opposed to always just cutting them like we have now so now one of the reasons why I wanted to mention that is because here in this same manner 1980 1982 where ray felt he misread things ray has also recently become an investor in gold with his hedge fund and will continue on here with his quote prospective risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in the emerging risks appear more political and economic which makes them especially challenging to price it which I would say I'll partly agree with certainly there are the political risks which are tricky to price it I mean or Trump and Kim Jong really gonna start launching more missiles they keep talking about it anyway well hope that doesn't happen although it sounds from the way he phrased that that perhaps I see more economic concern maybe that he does although in either case as a result the hedge fan hedge fund manager recommended investors allocate 5 to 10 percent of their portfolios to gold we can also say that if things the above things go badly it would seem that goal more than any other safe-haven asset like the dollar yen and Treasury would benefit interesting one there where he says more than ever any other safe haven the dollar yen and Treasury and perhaps that will comment on that one a little bit more tomorrow but as I was reading that the a this morning people often say well why gold you know why is it important and it's perhaps that sentence that he has right there puts it as clearly as you can where look at what are the others supposed safe haven alternatives dollar yen to currencies that are printed insanely I mean Shinzo Abe a basically was elected Prime Minister of Japan by promising to print it seems about same amounts of money which is exactly what he did and of course the third one there is Treasuries you have the most indebted borrower in the history of the globe that every time a debt ceiling limit comes along shows no signs of having any inclination to repay that money so his gold in a sense perfect maybe so maybe not but what I guess always left me feeling comfortable was that geez if these are the alternatives and we see that well we don't know the timing there I have some serious flaws anyway well we'll get back to that tomorrow but interesting tra mentioned that and then the last thing we have here ray mentions the greatest tragedy of mankind is people clinging to wrong opinions if you want to know the key to whatever a bridgewater success has been it's not me it's not what's in my head it's my ability to deal with what i don't know which i think is really timely advice because certainly there's a lot of unusual things happening in the financial markets the data is worse than ever where there's almost anything that comes out government or bank you really treat with a grain of salt what deals are these guys making behind closed doors that they don't tell us about I mean we can't even get a straight story about what's happening today let alone five or ten years ago so how I try to incorporate that anyways is that I've spent about a decade studying this alternate perspective of economics digging into gold and silver and becoming pretty convinced that those markets are manipulated there is a problem coming there are bubbles there although what I feel good about is that almost every day I'm still questioning and looking is there something I could have missed what are the other investors that I agree with say what are the guys that I don't agree with saying which can often be even more helpful because sometimes someone may have a different view maybe they're right maybe you're right although if you understand their view can say or and how did he arrive at this conclusion are the steps logical do they follow so getting those outside it's it's that balance of doing your own homework having your own views but then also seeing if the people that you'd like to be on the same team with if they are agreeing and seeing the same things so along those lines the fact that Ray Dalio is also getting into gold certainly a good positive sign good don't take my word for it but what I hope I'm doing every day is giving some insight into how I've arrived at some of these conclusions which I think there's a lot of credence to but perhaps you know I might miss something you might see something that I don't if it's just ready to come and let everybody else know but I think it's a good practice nice to hear that someone who's successful is rate leo has adopted that also nice to hear that he's buying gold I sometimes wonder if some of these guys are aware of what's going on particularly in silver and the manipulation because when you start getting into some of those bigger hedge funds then now we're talking about people that actually could apply pressure on the market so again just keeping you posted on what's going on gold and silver not doing too bilities last two days so we haven't hit that break point yet which I knew when that would be yet what we can do is look at what people who have had success are doing analyze that think about it discuss it and that's what you should do now leave a comment below thanks for watching and you'll be back tomorrow keeping you covered on let's go to markets and thanks again as always for watching do you appreciate that right
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