Peter Schiff - The Fed's Exit Plan is QE Infinity

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결론: 연준이 다시 양적완화로 돌아가 '끝없는 양적완화'가 될 것이며, 결국 달러 가치 하락과 금 상승으로 이어진다는 입장. 연준 정책 전망: 연준은 출구전략에 실패했고 금리 정상화와 대차대조표 축소를 포기했다. 금리는 0 근처에 영원히 묶이거나 마이너스까지 갈 수 있으며, 이는 인플레이션을 키운다. 디플레이션 논쟁: 해리 덴트의 1930년대식 디플레이션 주장에 반대. 당시는 금본위제였으나 현재는 법정화폐 체제라 연준이 무제한 발행할 수 있고, 따라서 채무 불이행이 아니라 통화가치 하락(평가절하)이 나타날 것이라고 주장. 달러 전망: 달러는 가장 큰 피해자가 될 것이며 달러 하락 시 금은 급등할 것. 미국 정부는 부채 재조정 대신 부채를 유지·확대하는 쪽을 택할 것. 금 시장 진단: 2011년 금 1,900달러 고점 이후 하락은 연준 긴축이라는 착시 때문. 금리 인상 기대가 시장에 반영되며 금은 하락했지만, 실제 긴축은 미미했고 정상화 기대는 무산됨. 현재 연준이 다시 완화로 돌아서면서 시장이 이를 깨닫는 순간 금리 인상 기대는 사라지고 달러는 바닥 모르고 떨어지며 금은 크게 오를 것이라 주장. 연준 신뢰도: 연준 발언은 시장 안정을 위한 낙관 포장일 뿐이며 신뢰할 수 없다고 평가. 버냉키·그린스펀 사례를 들며 다음 거품 붕괴 시 연준 신뢰도도 사라지고 사람들이 금과 법정화폐 탈출로 몰릴 것이라 전망. 출연자 권유: 자산 보전을 위해 금 매수 권유(SchiffGold, GoldMoney 언급), 대규모 자산은 유로퍼시픽캐피털 위탁 관리 권유. 방송 자체 홍보 포함. 이 영상은 2019년 11월 기준 발언으로, 시점상 장기적 구조론 위주이며 1~3개월 단기 방향 예측은 명확하지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. They gave up shrinking their balance sheet and now they're expanding it again. And so when people realize that there is no exit strategy, there is no way out, that it is chewy infinity. Hello there my friends, Chris Marcus here with you for Arcadia Economics. We're still at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

02. It's wrapping up. Although kind enough to be joined by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital and SchiffGold. And Peter, nice to see you here and how's the conference been going? Well, conference is pretty much over. I think we just had the closing panel. But I always like coming down in New Orleans. Like you know, I bring my wife, sometimes I bring my kids, but it's a fun American city, very unique city and good culture, good food, good music, good time.

03. And it's a good conference. I mean it's a you know, gold oriented conference. So you know, kind of my kind of people. So and I see friends here, a lot of the speakers that I see every year. You know, the conference has been going on for 45 years. But I've probably been coming for about 20 of them maybe.

04. Something like that. Yeah. And I'll mention you were kind enough to go easy on me. We ended up at the bar together while my Jets were getting pounded yesterday and didn't go I know, by the Dolphins of all teams, right? They You know, the Dolphins are no longer winless and the Patriots now are no longer undefeated.

05. So that's same in the same week. beat the teams that are trying to lose. It feels like like the Jets are a treasury bond at this point. Although not that bad. Although it's a good conference. I'd rather own the Jets. Yeah, maybe we can turn them around. Seems like turning the Fed around. Are we past the point of no return?

06. We're long past that point, you know, but they keep on plowing forward because to do otherwise is too you know, traumatic. You know, they've created such a big problem and they've kicked the can down the road for so many years that they just can't deal with it. And so they have to keep trying to kick it, but, you know, at some point you can't do it anymore.

07. I mean, the can is too big, and there's no more road. And we are uh getting close to that point. Although, you know, there's no way to know for sure whether it's days, weeks, months, or maybe a few more years, but I mean, there's not a lot. Yep. I know one of the counterarguments that you hear sometimes from Harry Dent, perhaps a few others, they say gold and silver going to go down cuz we're going to have deflation like the 1930s, which I get what he's saying, yet what he's leaving out is that if you have anything remotely resembling that, you're going to have the Fed roll out Yeah, I mean, Harry Dent doesn't disagree with the idea that we're in a lot of trouble, and we're going to have a huge collapse.

08. I mean, he sees all that, right? He knows that we're on borrowed time, and that we're headed for a day of reckoning. He just looks back to the Great Depression, and says, "Oh, it'll be like that, right? Where we had deflation." But during the 1930s, we were on a gold standard. It was very different.

09. The Fed couldn't just print money back then. Uh money was gold. And, you know, Roosevelt devalued the dollar, but it was still, you know, backed by gold, and, you know, it went from the dollar uh bought 20 oz, or, you know, you could buy um $20 could get you an oz of gold before the Depression. And then when Roosevelt devalued, you needed $35 to get an oz of gold.

10. But still, you know, there was a you know, that was a a limit. And and had Roosevelt not done that, prices would have fallen even more than they did. But prices fell. Uh but and and asset prices, of course, fell more than than the price of goods. But what Dent doesn't understand is that when you're on a fiat system, and you could just create money at will out of thin air without any discipline that when all these bad things start to happen that Dent is forecasting, the Fed's just going to print more and more money.

11. Like he According to Dent, basically the Fed is going to default on all his promises, right? The Fed is not going to pay bond holders their money. The Fed is going to tell or the the Treasury is going to tell people that have bank accounts when their banks fail, "Oh, the FDIC doesn't have any money, so you just lost your deposits." Right?

12. They he According to Dent, the government is going to tell people on Social Security, "We're out of money. Sorry, you don't get any. We don't really have anything in the trust funds. It was all a lie. And so I know we promised you Social Security, but we just can't make the payments." See, I don't believe that that's what's going to happen.

13. See, what I believe is that they're going to pay everybody. They're just going to create all the money that they need. So, it's not a debt default that we're going to have. It's depreciation of the currency. And so if Harry Dent thinks he's going to take refuge in the US dollar, you know, he's you know, he he's got another thing coming.

14. I mean, the dollar is going to be the biggest casualty of this whole thing. I mean, cuz when you borrow more money than you can repay, which Dent would acknowledge, default is inevitable. The only question is how will they default? Will they default honestly by just not paying or dishonestly by printing?

15. Dent's bet is they just don't pay. My bet is that they print. And even before the crisis according to the Fed has arrived, it seems like you've already won this round because amazingly, we have the president, the Federal Reserve saying everything's okay. Yet, don't call it QE, but actually putting more money into the system than when you had QE and Oh, yeah.

16. Well, they're doing exactly what I said they would do for the exact reasons I said they were doing it, and they make they're making up excuses the way I said they would. They don't want to tell the truth. But we are headed back to zero. We're back to quantitative easing. Their policy didn't work. It was an abysmal failure.

17. All they succeeded in doing was inflating a bigger bubble than the one that popped in '08. And when the air comes out, there's going to be even more collateral damage than there was during the financial crisis. Yeah, and it's incredible. Something that I, you know, I try not to let this stuff get me too riled up anymore.

18. Yet when I see Powell comes out at these press conferences and these other Fed officials and they sit there and tell everyone that things are okay, the economy's great, while simultaneously the the thing's melting down and just the audacity to to come out and say that to the people that they're pledging an oath to serve.

19. So I'm curious, any comments on whether these statements from the Fed that they're giving now are genuine? No, they're never genuine. They're always self-serving, and it's more propaganda than anything else. I mean, the Fed looks at their job as, you know, being the cheerleaders for the economy, to kind of talk it up and pretend everything is great.

20. I mean, even Ben Bernanke let the cat out of the bag when he was questioned on a radio interview by I think it was uh um I I I forget the name, Motley Motley Fool or something like that, but this was well after the financial crisis. He was no longer Fed chairman. And they played back some of his clips from '07 where he said everything was great, subprime was contained, nothing to worry about, right?

21. Housing is And they played the clips and they said "Hey, you know, how do you feel now when we play this back knowing how wrong you were? I mean, how do you feel about these statements?" And instead of saying, "Oh, I feel like a fool," he basically said, "Well, you know, I couldn't exactly be honest back then.

22. I couldn't exactly state my real opinion because I was part of the administration," which he wasn't, but he basically acknowledged, "Look, my job was to say good things and to try to make sure that nobody was worried. To try to be the the voice of calm. Like, "Oh, I have to reassure everybody that there was nothing to worry about." Well, and so if if basically that's what the Fed does, how can you believe anything that they say?

23. Cuz they're going to say everything is great, no matter how bad they think it is, cuz they're afraid. If they actually come out and say, "Oh, yeah, this is the we're headed for that they're going to cause a crisis, that they're going to It's like they're going to cause the very crisis that they're worried about happening.

24. So, they're hoping if they could just put a positive spin on it, they can at least delay the onset. But, you know, the problem with that is the the longer they delay it, the worse they make it. But, it for them it's a victory just to delay it. Cuz they have a very short-term time horizon. They're just looking towards the end of their term or the next presidential election.

25. How can we keep this whole thing from blowing up until then? Yep. Speaking of which, obviously we have Alan Greenspan, another Fed chairman, hanging out with Ayn Rand, talking about gold standard. Gets into office, does the exact opposite, and now he criticizes Bernanke. Well, uh Greenspan is probably the only one of the Fed chairman, I mean, since Greenspan, who actually understands anything about money.

26. That understands anything about the financial history of the United States, that isn't a Keynesian, that understands gold. And and but yet he still pursued these policies. But, you know, uh Bernanke and Yellen and now Powell, these guys are clueless. They don't even They have no idea what they're doing.

27. They're following the playbook that Greenspan wrote, but Greenspan knows how it's going to end, which is a disaster. They don't know that. They don't know that part. They're just They're just continuing along that path. But, if you ever listen to what Greenspan says now, I mean, he sounds a lot more like me than any of the than other Fed guys.

28. I mean, it's great what he says except for when he actually had the power to do something about it and Oh, and he denies, you know, any responsibility for any of the wrongs that he did. And he refuses to criticize the Fed. Because he's like, well, I can't say anything bad about the Fed. It's like an unwritten rule.

29. Like once you're a Fed chairman and you leave, you can never criticize anything that the Fed does, you know, and so So, he's like, oh, yeah, I can't talk about it. But, of course, you know, you know, when you live in a glass house, right? You're not supposed to throw stones. And I mean, he's in the biggest glass house of them all.

30. Yeah, and it's like I understand the value of being positive, yet, you know, if someone's walking in traffic and there's an 18-wheeler, like, yeah, maybe it is good to warn about that. Yes, false confidence can get people into a lot of trouble. Yeah, and I think I don't know if this is good or not, but I feel like maybe we're approaching the point where it finally gets the Fed into trouble.

31. You talked about for years. I mean, is this going to be the end of the Fed's credibility when this next bubble unravels? Will they come back, or is that enough to blow out the dollar and You know, people see it. You would have thought that they would have lost their credibility already. It's amazing to me that they still have any.

32. But, yeah, I think that when this next bubble pops, uh and they're, you know, cranking up the printing presses again and the balance sheet is at new highs and we're back at zero, I think that most of the rest of what they got left of credibility will will be gone. And people are going to be rushing to gold, you know, and they're going to be trying to get out of uh fiat currencies in general, but the US dollar in particular.

33. Yep. Uh one last question before we wrap up. I'm curious your thoughts. We saw the money printing. We had 1,900 gold in 2011, $50 silver. We actually have more money in the system by far since they started declining. Um I feel as if people got they bought this myth that the Fed was tightening, which they talked a lot about tightening, but never really tightened that much.

34. Why do you think the metals declined so much over these years? Well, they tightened by removing some of the ease, but they never got to, you know, restrictive monetary policy. They just got to a monetary policy that was less uh uh stimulative, right? Uh less accommodative than than it was before. And that was enough.

35. Like if you be if you get a drug habit, if you're like hooked on heroin, and all of a sudden you get less heroin, you're still getting drugs, but you're not getting enough. And your body needs a certain amount. And so that's kind of what happened. We went into withdrawal when the Fed started to taper and when they started to raise interest rates, we started going to withdrawal because even though we were getting cheap money, it wasn't cheap enough.

36. And the reason that gold stopped rising, it got got up to 1,900 in in 2011. And the reason it went up there was because people were worried, rightly so, about where the Fed was headed with quantitative easing and 0% rates. But the Fed was able, I guess to its credit or not really its credit because we're going to suffer from that, but it was able to con everybody into thinking that their policy worked, that they that all they had to do was normalize interest rates and shrink their balance sheet.

37. But I was pointing out that that's the hard part. It's like anybody can get hooked on drugs. The hard part is quitting the habit. But the Fed convinced everybody that it worked. And even though the balance sheet was still 4 and 1/2 trillion, and even though interest rates were still zero, the Fed claimed victory.

38. And everybody believed them. And so gold went down and the dollar went up because the market started to anticipate all the rate hikes to get back to normal. They anticipated the Fed shrinking its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. And but that never happened. And I was saying for years that it was never going to happen.

39. But now that the Fed is cutting rates again, they gave up trying to normalize rates cuz it's impossible to do it. They gave up shrinking their balance sheet, and now they're expanding it again. And so when people realize that there is no exit strategy, there is no way out, that it is chewy infinity, right?

40. That interest rates have to stay near zero forever, or maybe even go negative. Because the longer they keep rates low, the more debt we have. And the more debt we have, the lower rates have to be to afford it. What we really need is debt default. We need to get rid of all this debt. We need We need to be, you know, restructured.

41. But the government doesn't want that. They want to They want to maintain the debt. But in doing that, they encourage even more debt. So the debt bubble gets bigger and bigger and bigger, and now you need even cheaper money to sustain it. So when the markets realize that this is it, like we're we're we're we're in for good, there's no shrinking of the balance sheet, it's going to grow in perpetuity, that rates stay down.

42. That means inflation is going to run rampant. And the dollar is a bottomless pit. And so all of that hope is going to vanish, and all those rate hikes that the markets were expecting are going to be priced out, and the dollar's going to go through the floor, and gold's going to go through the roof. Yeah, it seems like we're reaching that point.

43. Again, you touched on Bernanke. I love that quote where he said, "We could raise rates in 15 minutes." Which he could, but never did and never would have. So, Peter, again, I know we're wrapping up at the end of the conference, so I'll let you run, but I think I'm personally grateful. I know you've opened a lot of eyes in seeing these things where Austrian economics is getting out there, and you've really played a large role in that.

44. So, thank you for that. And perhaps, again, just wrapping up, if you'd let folks know how they can uh find your companies and uh the Yeah, well, first of all, for social media, I mean, I I do the podcast, the Peter Schiff Show. You can listen to it on iTunes, at schiffradio.com. I put it up on my YouTube channel.

45. uh but so listen to those. I do a couple a week usually. Sometimes they're close to an hour a piece, so I comment on a lot of things, not just the markets, but politics and uh another things that are on my mind and you get a perspective that you don't generally get from the mainstream media. In fact, I used to make regular appearances on the mainstream media and 2 years ago they kind of everybody kind of cut me off because they wanted to keep my perspective off their air.

46. Uh but I think more people now hear it indirectly, you know, through social media than used to hear it on uh you know, more conventional. But, you know, I've been tweeting a lot recently, so you can follow me on Twitter. Uh Peter Schiff um yeah, you'll see my I got like 172,000 followers. That's who you I don't have a verification check, so but you'll that that's the one that's me.

47. I am verified on my my Facebook page, so you can go to my Facebook page uh and again, subscribe. I got about uh 270-odd thousand subscribers to my YouTube channel. So, you know, I'm out there. I'm putting out that content. But, if you've got money and you want to preserve the value of that money, if you don't want to be collateral damage when this bubble pops, you need to get some gold.

48. You know, I have a gold company, SchiffGold, as you said. You can buy gold. GoldMoney.com is another great way to open up an online account and have money that you can actually use as a medium of exchange, you know, when when it hits the fan and merchants want to be paid in gold. You want to have an app where you can conduct commerce in gold, so set up a GoldMoney account.

49. Uh but if you have larger sums of money and you want to have a portfolio that I can manage in assets around the world in the you know, good stocks in the most solid currencies in the best countries, you know, come to my website at Euro Pacific Capital. Uh you know, call us up. Speak to one of my representatives about setting up an account for me to manage.

50. Yeah, and we'll have that information in the tab below. Peter, thanks for joining me. Great to catch up. nice seeing you again. Talk again soon. See you next year. End of Arcadia. Yeah.