저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 애플 시가총액이 향후 6~9개월 내 3조 달러에 도달하며, 기술주 강세 사이클이 아직 중반이라는 낙관론. 애플 가치 전망: 현재 약 2.5조 달러 시총에서 3조 달러로 상승 예상. 9월 출시 아이폰13 수요가 두 자릿수 성장할 것으로 전망하고 시장은 이를 과소평가 중. 서비스 사업: 서비스 부문 가치를 약 1.4조 달러로 추정. 이것이 아이폰 사이클과 합쳐져 3조 달러 근거가 됨. 규제 리스크: 한국·EU 등 빅테크 규제 압박은 지속될 것이나, 현재 투자자들은 이를 벌금 수준으로 보고 리스크를 제한적으로 인식. 앱스토어 30% 수수료는 장기적으로 압박 가능성. 지수 전망: 나스닥 연말 16,500 목표 제시. 알파벳(구글): 디지털 광고 회복과 GCP 클라우드 성장으로 사상 최고가 부근. 상승 여력 언급. 사이버보안: 가장 유망한 기회로 제시. Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Tenable, Telos 언급. 연방정부 사이버보안 수요 강조, 연내 시장 대비 상당한 초과수익 전망. 클라우드: 클라우드 전환을 10년간 2조 달러 시장으로 전망. 중국 기술주 규제로 자금이 미국 기술주로 이동 중. 금리 리스크: 금리 급등이 있어도 기존 테마에 영향 없다고 봄. 마이크로소프트, 애플, 페이스북 등 보유 지속 권고. 중국 규제 여파: 중국 빅테크 단속으로 미국 기술주로 자금 유입 기대.
다듬은 글
you look at apple in the satellite features are they only going to be used for emergencies or could it actually expand its reach significantly yeah i think for now it's going to be emergencies and this is something apple they've been working on within cupertino for the last three to four years but i think in future iterations you know of the iphone you could see this expanded but i think what it does along with some of the chip advancements that they made it just shows the technology innovation that's going on within cupertino and it's been one of the keys to success in terms of the last few years uh dan 2.5 trillion 2.5 trillion dollar market cap what's going to be the next big catalyst for apple yeah look we believe this is when i look out next six nine months this will be a three trillion dollar mark cap and you know to your question i think it's really about this elongated super cycle in terms of iphone 13 which we expect to launch third week in september we think that's up double digits in iphone 12.
because of the massive pent-up demand that's happened the street continues to underestimate it you combine that with the services business which we think is worth about 1.4 trillion gets us to a three trillion dollar mark have for apple and i think you know many have sort of said innovations in the rear view mirror i think to the contrary a massive renaissance of growth going on in cupertino i mean i love the renaissance of growth idea but dan don't regulators kind of sit up and take notice yeah and look no doubt you see what's happening korea uh and also across the beltway in brussels and you're gonna see regulatory spotlight on big tech it's not going away and apple's front and center especially in the app store but but i think from an investor perspective right now it's the lack of consensus that continues to view this as sort of more fines rather than regulatory changes that could be business model changes and when you look at apple it's really about that app store that 30 percent fee that's the crown jewel within apple and i think you could see some pressure on that over time but for right now investors are sort of viewing this as a contain risk with the green light to own not just apple but broader attack given our view of 16 5 nasdaq in terms of year-end okay so what about uh google or i should say alphabet touching an all-time high yesterday we're looking at the stock potentially up for eight straight uh monthly advance you got that recovery in digital ads this is a huge move um same kind of question what kind of upside is there and i'm wondering like where are the laggards of these big tech guys that can really see some more upside yeah i mean you've just seen just the tidal wave of growth in terms of what we've seen on digital advertising and i think for alpha and google i think the other thing too is what's happened on cloud gcp in terms of google's cloud initiative really starting to gain more and more traction as part of this trillion million dollar cloud opportunity a bit of a re-rating on the stock but but i think when you look at what's happened in terms of broader attack look there's names like an ibm that has not participated at seeing a renaissance of you know growth on cloud and i to me the best opportunity continues to be cyber security i think we are just seeing unlike anything i've seen in terms of the growth over the last 20 years names like z scour cyborg tenable telos is the federal opportunity i think cyber security means significant outperform the rest of the year dan is there a common theme for all of these you know stocks that makes a difference between the companies that actually give out data or you know scour your messages or scours your photos even if it's for you know doing good like apple is suggesting it would and the ones that don't do that yeah right now it's a balancing act between privacy as well as what we're seeing on just in terms of shifts to the cloud but right now what i really want to be playing what we've been telling investors is just this digital transformation that we're seeing across consumer and enterprise so of course on the broader shift to cloud we view this as a two trillion dollar market opportunity over the next decade and what's also happening now is that investors that were playing chinese tech names they're all routine to u.s tax doctors given the scale and scope of the crack down in beijing that's just been another talon for u.s tech stocks real quick danforth let you go if we have some kind of tape or tantrum higher yields does that affect the thesis i think those are just opportunities that's been our thesis for the last two years we're in the middle innings of a bull cycle for tech anything happen you continue to own the microsoft's the apples the fanny name cyber security
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