저자: Solopreneur · 외국인
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결론: 버진갤럭틱(SPCE)은 공동창업자 차마스 팔리하피티야의 대량 매도와 추가 유상증자 소식으로 시간외 급락했으며, 진행자는 내일 큰 폭의 하락을 예상하고 있다. [주가 흐름] 당일 정규장은 약 -1.4% 하락, 시간외에서 한때 -7.1%까지 밀렸다가 약 -4.5% 수준으로 회복한 상태로 소개됐다. 지난 주말 시험비행 실패 이후 약세가 이어지고 있다고 봤다. [팔리하피티야 매도] 그는 SPCE 주식 약 380만 주를 12/14~12/15 사흘에 걸쳐 매도했으며, 가격은 약 24~27달러, 총액은 약 9,500만 달러로 추산했다. 본인은 신규 프로젝트 자금 마련이라고 설명했으나 진행자는 시점과 설명을 의심적으로 봤다. [유상증자 우려] 데이터 관련 트윗에 따르면 회사가 약 1억 1,300만 주를 추가 발행할 예정이라는 내용이 시간외 하락을 촉발했다고 봤다. 이는 기존 주주 희석 요인으로 해석됐다. [옵션 포지션] 진행자는 행사가 18달러 현금담보 풋 4개를 보유 중이며 만기는 내일이다. 현재가 24달러 기준 약 25% 하락해야 행사되는 구조다. 행사 시 저가 매수 기회로 보고, 다음 주 15달러 이하 풋 매도 계획을 밝혔다. [기술적 분석] 50일 이동평균과 피보나치 78.6% 부근 약 23달러가 1차 저항, 22달러 추세선과 약 20달러(11/16 저점)가 지지선으로 제시됐다. 18달러까지 밀리려면 이동평균과 여러 지지선을 깨야 한다고 봤다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 내일 큰 폭 하락 가능성이 높다고 전망했고, 18달러 도달 가능성은 낮지만 가능하다고 봤다. 팔리하피티야 매도 명분은 의심스럽다는 입장이다. 장기적으로는 회사를 신뢰하는 투자자에게 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 언급했으나 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시했다. [리스크] 추가 유상증자와 임원 매도로 인한 희석 및 신뢰 악화, 시험비행 실패 여파가 주요 리스크다.
다듬은 글
hey guys how's it going solo back with another video today you're getting a two for one special again because this video i just had to get out there i didn't think i was going to make another virgin galactic video but there is just crazy news that happened today during the day and even crazier news that happened during after hours trading take a look at the stock graph we just fell off a cliff right now as i'm making this video during after hours trading so i just had to talk about the news events we will do some updated technical analysis to finish up the video but wow i'm actually getting a little bit nervous for my space puts that i have expiring tomorrow so let's talk about what happened today first off taking a look at the robin hood graphic you can see it wasn't really that much of an eventful day yes we had a little bit of a sell-off down almost four percent within the first 15 minutes of trading today but that wasn't too surprising like i said we are still kind of reeling from that failed test flight over the past weekend so if you've seen some of my other videos you know i did think that we were gonna have some red days this week and sell off so it wasn't really that much of a shock that we sold off some more today actually we were green yesterday if we take a look quickly at the weekly graph but we did slowly melt up and actually rally all day long and in fact at some point during the day we were actually even green up almost one percent around 2 p.m sold it off back again we had a little bit of a red day during normal market hours but not that bad we were only down 1.4 percent which actually was surprising because i thought like i said we would sell off pretty hard this week however take a look at this at about 4 25 p.m so about 25 minutes about a half an hour into after hours trading we went from being down 0.4 percent to being down seven point one percent we rallied back a little bit and then immediately right back down down seven and a quarter percent currently we are rallying a little bit to being down only four and a half percent but let's talk about the news that broke today and what's causing the trading during the day and this big sell-off during after hours which i suspect will carry over into pre-market trading and the market open tomorrow so let's get right into it so for this we're going to have to take a look at my twitter account because this is where all the news is happening right now if you're not familiar with it chamath poly hapatia i probably have mispronouncing that name forgive me but he if you're not familiar with him he is a billionaire okay he's the ceo of social capital he is a part owner of the golden state warriors the basketball team and he's also a part owner of virgin galactic of space so what happened today well if we scroll down he actually sent out a tweet and what he did was he sold off a lot of his virgin galactic shares today so you can see he explains it in a tweet that actually came out 18 hours ago i'm making this video at almost 6 p.m eastern time and you can see he filed a form 4 for the sale of 3.8 million shares of space now here's where it gets a little fishy and we'll take a look at that form 4 to see what he sold when he sold it and for how much but he's saying that he sold these shares to help manage his liquidity as he funds several new projects starting next year now i don't know if that's an excuse because you have to imagine this guy has gone on cnbc he's gone on the news networks with richard branson and he is a part owner of this company over 10 percent and obviously he's gonna go on the news and pump the stock he's going to talk about how great the company is and how great the stock is and how their future is so bright so for him to sell any shares let alone 3.8 million he's a smart guy he has to know that that's not going to look good for the company especially after a failed test flight so let's take a look at the form 4 to see exactly what he's sold so here is the form four okay you can see it's got his name at the top left it's got the address for space version galactic you can see right here says virgin galactic holdings ticker symbol spce so in three separate occasions you can see right here in the middle he sold shares of stock so on 12 14 right and again on 12 14 and then the following day on 12 15 three separate sell orders he's put in now keep in mind the failed test flight was on 12 12.
so two days after the failed test flight and then again the day after so three days after the failed test flight he sold off shares of stock so how much did he sell well as we said looks like on the first day he sold almost a little over 1.9 million so we're gonna just add this up on the fly right here one nine zero seven two six four and then the following day he sold another 92 736 shares of stock and then the third day he sold 1.8 million more shares of stock so he sold a total like i said of 3.8 million shares of stock now because he sold it at three different times you know he definitely got three different share prices so the first lot he sold for 26.67 the second lot he got a little bit more profit out of that he sold it for 27.54 the third lot was the cheapest he sold it for which was 24.67 less just for an even round number let's just say between 24 26 27 forget about weighting it that's just too much complicated math let's just say a round number of about 25 a share right so he sold 3.8 million dollars at roughly just to get a rough estimate 25 a share he sold 95 million dollars worth of stock okay so he's saying that he needed to free up 95 million dollars for some other funds or investments that he wants for 2021 now 95 million dollars is a lot of money but this guy is a billionaire so does he really need to free up 95 million dollars from shares of virgin galactic especially like i said he's a smart guy he knows that this is going to raise some eyebrows what are investors going to think if someone like him who's also the chairman mind you of virgin galactic as you can see on his twitter page if i scroll up here you'll see it says chairman at virgin galactic so he knows that as a chairman of a company who just sold 95 million worth of stock he's a smart guy he has to know that this is not going to look good for the company this is not going to look good for investors and i think he tried to get ahead of that by putting this tweet out and sort of explaining why he cashed out but honestly i'm not buying it the timing is a little fishy too why didn't he cash out before the test flight i'm assuming he always planned to cash out and was hoping that he would get a little pump from a successful test flight i don't know that's all he or said is just my opinion just speculation but it's still funny but as you can imagine on twitter now this has kind of you know brought out the conspiracy theorists and people responding with tweets now here's the other interesting thing just two hours ago he put this tweet out saying that his other company or another company that he really likes open door they are going to merge with a spec with the ticker symbol o p e n or open it looks like start trading on monday so now what i'm wondering is did this guy just cash out 95 million dollars so that he can then buy into this ipo because if you take a look at the recent ipos on airbnb on doordash that just happened recently their evaluations were out of control when they first ipo'd i mean airbnb they were offering shares of stock for their users for their hosts at 68 dollars a share airbnb ipo'd at something like 150 or 160 dollars a share so immediately those hosts that got shares at 68 instantly almost tripled their money two times to three times their money i'm wondering if chamath is trying to do the same thing where he's trying to take that 95 million dollars out of space put it in to this open door ipo and then just immediately 2x or triplex his money because the ipo valuations right now are crazy i mean from a money standpoint that's great but for people like me that are bullish on virgin galactic that like the company that like what they're doing doesn't really bode well take a look at this tweet that came out by data okay this is what knocked the stock down after hours because chamath's tweet came out already known during the trading day so what happened after hours to cost that huge sell-off well this is it so about an hour ago quant data treated out that virgin galactic they are offering more stock actually almost 113 million more shares of stock so the theory is that now that chamath has kind of cashed out his shares the company needs more money so they need to raise more capital and they're going to do that by offering more shares of stock so they are essentially diluting shares of the company so again that's just bad for current investors so that's probably why the share price dropped so hard after hours because like i said this news just came out an hour ago during after hours trading so it's going to be a very interesting day when the market opens tomorrow i am expecting a big red day to be honest with you so why am i worried then if you've been following my videos i actually have four cash credit puts on virgin galactic right now that expire tomorrow so let's go back to robin hood so my puts are at the 18 strike price as i'm making this video virgin galactic is trading for 24 okay when i sold those puts virgin galactic was in the low 30s okay just keep that in mind now i think i would be safe i'm not too concerned but for 18 for virgin galactic to get the 18 tomorrow it would have to lose six dollars and six dollars of the current share price of 24 is just about 25 so virgin galactic would need to drop 25 tomorrow for me to possibly get assigned shares now i could always consider rolling my shares out to next week or later on and even rolling the strikes down if i don't want to own the shares but i'm going to see what happens tomorrow keep a close eye on this stock because you know you might save yourself 25 percent that's a lot to lose in a day and i agree with you but it wasn't too long ago that virgin galactic actually shot up 25 okay so if any stock can lose 25 percent in a day it's definitely virgin galactic let's take a look at the trading view chart so here's where we close today but as you can see after hours trading we are well at 24 20 we're actually below this area of support that i had drawn at about 24 36 we're pretty much right there now to get to 18 we'd have to break past below the 50-day moving average and two other areas of support that i had identified before like i said let me show you that green candle where we shot up 25 percent that was this kindle right here back on september 28th you can see we gapped up there so like i said any stock that can move 25 percent it's going to be virgin galactic in terms of updating our technical analysis i'm going to delete this up arrow because i think right now there is no chance that virgin galactic is going to go up tomorrow my first area of resistance the strongest area of resistance is probably going to be the 50-day moving average which is actually right at the 78.6 fibonacci level at about 23.
the second area of support that i'm going to look for is about 22 at this trend line and then about 20 21 and then i'm going to be looking at about 20 because that's the most recent low back from november 16th is it possible that we get so low that's we get sub 20 i think it's possible i don't think it's likely i think it's possible i really hope though that virgin galactic closes at like 19 because then my options will expire worst lists and then come monday i'm going to sell cash good puts at like 15 or less and hopefully get assigned at a super low price if you're really long-term bullish in the company and you're really a believer this is going to be a golden opportunity to buy the dip of course this is not financial advice you have to do your own due diligence but talk about a stock going on sale we might get a huge sale on virgin galactic tomorrow so let me know what you think do you think chamath is believable in that he just needed to free up some cash or do you think he knows what's up and he's saying you know what virgin galactic might not be a good company let me pull my cash out before they sell off even more here's the other thing on twitter so user patman cap he found this old tweet from chamath okay this is from october 1st of 2020 and he says it's important to construct initial owners who are skilled long-term investors okay and he's kind of contradicting himself by selling off his shares this week so i don't know some fishy business going on let me know what you think in the comments below are you worried do you believe chamath are you just going to write off space altogether and not touch this thing is this a hot mess right now let me know what your thoughts are let me know if you have shares let me know if you have options on space i hope you stay green and as always happy trading you
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