저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상 진행자는 애플·테슬라·아마존·알리바바·페이스북에 대해 단기 하락을 예상하며, 페이스북은 소폭 조정 이후 반등 가능성을 열어둔다. [트위터(확인 가능한 자산 아님) 및 애플] 지난주 초 거짓 돌파(false breakout) 발생 후 하락 전개. 17:03(표기 불명확) 하향 돌파 시 1650 지지선 가능성 언급. 애플은 150.975 부근 갭 메우기 가능성과 150 부근 반등 구간 재확인을 언급하나 단기 하락 우위 전망. [테슬라] 장기 추세선 이탈 및 하락 돌파. 1차 목표 335 부근 언급, 현재 하락 흐름 지속 전망. 306~307 부근 지지 가능성 언급. 실적 발표 임박, 진행자는 실적 전 포지션 정리 입장. [구글] 거짓 돌파 신호와 실적 갭다운 회복이라는 상반된 신호가 공존해 리스크/리워드가 불분명하다고 평가. 명확한 방향성 판단 유보. [아마존] 실적 이후 대량 거래 동반 하락, 실적 갭다운 회복 실패. 실적 발표 전후 하락 우위 전망. 시장(S&P500) 신고가와 대비되는 약세 신호로 해석. [알리바바] 상승 쐐기 패턴 이탈, 거짓 돌파 및 추세선·50일 이평선 하향 이탈. MACD 다이버전스 언급하나 단독 지표 의존 경계. 과거 유사 패턴 사례 근거로 하락 전망. [페이스북] 거짓 돌파 후 하락 전개, 과거 10월 유사 패턴 사례 근거로 단기 하락 가능성 제시. 과거 패턴상 급락 후 회복 사례도 언급. [전략 및 리스크] 진행자는 거짓 돌파·추세선 이탈 등 복합 패턴 확인을 강조하며, 지표 단독 사용 및 실적 전후 변동성에 대한 주의를 환기.
다듬은 글
in absolute twitter daily chart here to start and i want to recall here going back to early last week was this early last week yep early last week we had a false breakout alright we had a false breakout so what is a false breakout it's a break out over a clear level of very clear clean level of resistance all right here we are and then we broke over it right here okay and then just a few days later we broke back under it right here so when you have a clean very easily to identify resistance it breaks over that and then it breaks back under that that is a false breakout okay so it doesn't become a false breakout until it breaks back below and that's what we did right here and then we called for some downside on Twitter we said it was going to hit this trendline right here in the 50-day moving average it did that and it even went past it so congrats if you followed along now what to expect with Twitter well we just barely closed below this trend line and the 50-day moving average well not barely on the 50-day moving average but barely on the trendline here which is really the most important thing that I'm looking at personally but we did so first of all we barely closed below it and we did so with a potential reversal candle so to me it's not considered a break of this trendline just yet but if we break today's lows so if we break 17:03 then I think definitely it's going to come down to this next level of support which was around 1650 okay and then if we break the highs of today which was 1741 1740 one is that high over there if we break those highs then we can potentially look for a bounce on it right here but right now the best setup was that short trade right here and it really worked out really nicely so I'm really happy for you pple here again we pointed out this was likely a Bear Flag when it was happening and again we broke out of it right here so we got that confirmation so congrats if you took that short trade up here okay now to me right here because we gapped down we have this gap that may want to fill before we had lower be another little Bear Flag okay so it could be another little instance where we're just going to trade sideways here for a little bit and then eventually break to the downside either way I do favor downside on Apple whether we come up here and fill the gap up there at about 150 975 before heading lower or not you know remains to be seen but to me the direction on Apple is going to be down from here could just be down to retest you know that bounce zone around 150 once again and then we can kind of reassess the situation but in the short term I think we still have lower to go I think these lows from early this week in late last we are going to eventually get broken the next one we're going to take a look at is a stock here Tesla and Tesla this is another one that we called for a downside we pointed out I want to go back to exactly why we called for downside because I really want you to learn it's all about learning here alright so we had this trendline it started right here started right here I'm sorry I got a bounce there bounced here several bounces and then we broke back under it right here so when you're drawing trend lines and you're watching other people's videos or what-have-you you want to make sure that people aren't just drawing some random line on the chart and price isn't really reacting to it okay so clearly you can see right here the price of Tesla is reacting spot on on to this angle so we know that it's important and we want if we're bullish on Tesla you want to see the stock continued to hold that trendline because clearly it's been bouncing off of it for a very long time and now that it's broken it clearly that's a key thing and we pointed that out we pointed out that we were likely going to get rejected around here we got that rejection than we were looking for headed down to that first target near about 335 and now we're breaking even lower right here not a great look for this stock and I believe earnings are coming up here earnings honestly crapshoot and I'm not going to be holding any position on Tesla through earnings so I forget if it's tomorrow or even tonight but regardless I'm I'm personally out of Tesla right here as earnings are coming up pretty soon and it's always a crapshoot but Congrats on this short trade so far from about 360 to about 325 you know the chart really is not looking great at this point in time we got to reassess maybe we can look for bounces down about right around here or so that's a potential area we bounce right here a lot of sideways trading here and then we bounce right here that and that level is right around 306 307 has earnings coming up and I want to point out you know we pointed out the false breakout that occurred just recently and again just to review here's that resistance here's that resistance here it is reacting to that level and then we broke over it right here held over it for about five days and then broke back under it right here that was the false breakout as you can see moved nicely short from here and again earnings are coming up with this one and to me it's kind of a crapshoot with Google because we got two things that went on here with with Google okay so we do have this false breakout okay but we also are above this is the last earnings right here that we had a big decline right there but as I talked about many times on these charts is that when you recover over those gap downs okay a big gap down on earnings when you recover over those gap down so we did that right here and not only did we break that but we stayed over it we're still over it you can see we're bouncing off those levels right here to me we've got two kind of two things one bullish one bearish thing playing tug-of-war and to me the risk versus reward in either direction and I'm talking about just me personally you can do whatever you want a lot of other opinions out there I really don't care but for me personally I don't like the risk versus reward on Google in either direction just because I've got two conflicting things that are really just as much but on the other side if we did have a false breakout and it was still below this level to me that would be a great shorting opportunity and I'm gonna cover one right now that's just like that so here we have Amazon that tanked last earnings right here big gap down on some big volume right here this is a big reversal candle right here and then a few days after that here's the reaction to earnings and here's the next day after that all with huge selling volume as you can see where is any big green volume day ok show me a green above average volume that you can't find it here's a big red volume day big red volume day big red volume day right there so lastly we got rejected right here right where we said we would at 10:20 and headed lower right there and we're still below that price point that we gapped down right here so to me I'm favoring shorts heading into earnings release on Amazon I think that Amazon more than likely is going to head lower on earnings just because we haven't been able to break back above that earnings gap down that we experienced last time ok so that's kind of how we play it you know you got to you got to recover ok you have to recover over this price point in order for it to really show some strength okay and that's what you got to focus on what's the reason that we didn't break over this you know when you look at the market I'm just gonna look at the S&P 500 really quick here's what the market did in that same time period ok we rocketed up to new all-time highs all right straight up practically and then you look at Amazon basically traded sideways here that whole time and then got rejected at these hives ok so there's no reason that Amazon shouldn't have recovered so mean so for me personally that's a telling sign the next one we're going to take a look at is Baba this is another one we called for some downside and we're getting some follow-through right here and if you watch the last video I did on Alibaba or maybe there was the one before that I pointed out a couple of things so we broke out of this little rising wedge you know and I just want to point out too that rising wedge patterns you know are in a very bullish market you know they've got to be perfect and a lot of times you know they fail ok so you really have to pick your spots and have a perfect set ok so not only do we have this rising wedge but we have a false breakout here here's that clear level of resistance that I'm talking about it ran into it for about a week and a half straight here it is again a few days before eventually breaking over it so that's a clean-looking breakout right here and then boom will break back under it right here and then eventually we break this uptrend line right here now we're breaking the 50-day moving average and the whole time that we were heading up into this rising wedge we had a negative divergence on the MACD okay and again like I always mention here on my videos if you're only focusing on indicators you know MACD is heading down or are a size heading down and you're making a decision solely based off of that you're going to have a bad time because oftentimes you know you'll get a MACD that's heading lower like for example right here MACD was heading lower right here as price was heading higher but look at that boom it bounced huge and went from about you know 150 all the way up to about 180 so you would have gotten screwed right there if you would have been just focusing on that MACD but when you combine the MACD with patterns with multiple patterns we had a false breakout and a trend line break that's where you can get some good results and another thing too if you didn't watch the last video I did on on Alibaba and honestly I covered this on a lot of other stocks to Google as well and Facebook we're going to cover next but looking back at last October it did something very similar here you can see there was this rising wedge we had this breakout here's that resistance here's our resistance we brick over it right here hold over it for a couple of weeks actually before eventually breaking back below that and the trendline right here at the same time and as you can see traded sideways a little bit before seeing a pretty big jump from about 105 all the way down to 87 obviously you know if you go here we've got a big bounce and we made new all-time highs but you know we like to focus on just a very near-term action on what's gonna happen on these stocks and I think that similar thing and we're looking at this was last October the end of last October what is it now it's the end of October so we've got seasonality on our side we've got the same pattern exactly to a tee so I think that again a lot of evidence there's pointing to the downside for Facebook I'm sorry for Alibaba so right now we're going to touch on Facebook and as you can see right here we had this false breakout I pointed this out when it occurred right here so we had this resistance there there it is again here it is again here it is again before we eventually broke over it right here look like a nice breakout and then boom broke back below it right there so nice action if you play these false breakouts okay so false breakouts lead to Swift moves in the opposite direction so notice how last time we had a similar move right here so here's our here it is again we broke over it right here and look at how it didn't look back okay that's the action that you want to see okay but here tried to break out that looked like a nice break out and then boom got broken back underneath it okay broken back underneath it so that made it a false breakout and look at what happened last October here we are last October right here look at what happened we had this resistance here here's that resistance here it is again here's that breakout and then here's that false breakout right here and then here was that earnings release that was not too long after that so we got that false breakout before earnings and I think the same thing is going to happen alright so again obviously we went from it was a big dip from about 1:30 down to about 114 so about a 15 dollar drop and then obviously we rocketed up after that and recover nicely but again we like to cover the very short-term moves here because that's what a lot of people have to see and that's when we trade at the trading analyst calm in the pre membership we want you to learn and get better as a trader if you want to step up your trading game one more notch step up your learning step up your winning trades then go ahead and
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