저자: TheTradingAnalyst · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 알리바바·아마존·페이스북·구글·테슬라·트위터·애플 등 미국 기술주 다수가 단기 하락 가능성이 높다는 기술적 분석 영상이다. 알리바바(BABA): 상승 쐐기 추세선 이탈, 거짓 돌파, MACD 음의 다이버전스, RSI 50 하회가 겹쳤다. 2016년 10월에도 유사 패턴 후 105→87로 하락했다. 단기 목표 약 160달러, 계절성도 언급. 아마존(AMZN): 실적 발표 후 대량 거래 갭하락 저항을 돌파하지 못했다. 실적 전 리스크 대비 보상이 상승 쪽에 유리하지 않다고 판단. 지지선 950~940달러 하락 목표. 페이스북(FB): 저항선 재돌파 실패의 거짓 돌파. 2016년 10월에도 같은 패턴 후 실적 반응이 있었다. 하락 경계. 구글(GOOGL): 거짓 돌파 후 하락. 이전 숏 추천이 저점 이탈로 적중했다고 언급. 실적 전 상승 위험보상비는 불리하다고 봄. 나스닥 주요 종목 다수가 같은 패턴이라고 지적, 주의 필요. 테슬라(TSLA): 저항선 거짓 돌파 후 하락 중. 실적 전 기술적 지표가 상승 돌파에 우호적이지 않으며 335달러 하향 이탈 시 추가 하락을 예상. 355→335 구간 숏 적중. 트위터(TWTR): 저항 재이탈 후 하락 추천. 상승 추세선 근처 반등 가능성은 있으나 매매에 적극적이지 않다는 입장. 애플(AAPL): 베어 플래그 하향 이탈이 확인되며 추가 하락 여력이 남았다고 봄. 전망 기간은 약 1개월 이내의 단기다. 출연자 소속 정보는 제목·설명란에 없어 미상.
다듬은 글
libaba and I'm gonna point out a couple of things on this chart that I'm seeing for right now and I'm also going to show you in the recent past for Alibaba where it looks very similar to that pattern so what we have here I'm only Baba we have a rising wedge triangle whatever you want to call it again if you watch these videos you know that I'm not super technical on these patterns and you know the textbook definitions of them but you have this pattern you have this trend line here and it clearly broke that trend line and anyone can draw a line on the chart and make it seem like it's valid but what you want to have is the trend line and the price reacting to each other so clearly you can see we got a bounce right off the trum line there right off of it here direct touch and bounce off of it here and then as you can see the last few days look at that angle bouncing off of that trend line right here day after day and then finally we broke today so I'm pointing that out because you can see that this is a definitely an important level here for Alibaba the next thing I want to point out so we've got that trend line break the next thing I want to point out here is we have this false breakout okay you have this key gain so that made it a false breakout all right now and this false breakout plus the break of the trend line next thing we've got a negative divergence so as Alibaba is having higher we've got MACD heading lower that's what's called a negative divergence next as we broke the trend line today we broke back under the 50 level on the RSI alright we've got a lot of reasons here that's for reasons we've got a false breakout we've got a trend line break we've got a negative divergence and then finally we've got this RSI below the 40 bucks I'm sorry below the 50 line next I want to show you when it looked exactly like this previously and this is back in last October I'm just kind of zooming in here so you can see right there okay so here it is last October look at this last October we did the same exact thing so we have this really nice uptrend okay we've got Alibaba trending up and then as you can see it broke out of this rising wedge out of this triangle out of the trendline so here's that trendline you can see it getting bounces several times there and then as you can see it broke it right here all right as you can see look at what happened and went from about 105 down to about 87 so pretty big big drop obviously it bounced big-time after that but I'm talking about just the short-term and what it's going to do right now so we've got that false break out here as well so here's that resistance broke over it here and then we broke back under it at the same time we broke that trendline you can see we've got MACD that was heading down you can see RSI headed below the 50 line right there so a lot of things lining up the pattern looks the same the trendline looks the same MACD he looks very similar and another thing too is it happened almost at the exact the same time just a year ago so we broke the trend line right here on the 12th of October last year it's the 23rd of October we're just about 11 days off alright so seasonality you know is a big thing here so we've got seasonality we've got pattern we've got a lot of things that are looking very very similar to the previous time at dips so I am looking for some downside on Alibaba no crash or anything like that just looking for some downside target would be about 160 and that's based off of this previous support you can see that right there before we eventually broke over that so that'd be that support level that could definitely bounce from right around 160 all right the next one to take a look at is Amazon Amazon this is one we've been calling for some downside on you know if you watch these videos you will do it would have done quite well on this Amazon trade we called for some downside you can see we've been mentioning for a long long time on pretty much ever since it happened back here in the beginning of August this big huge gap down with heavy volume three days in a row look at all that selling right there all right look at all that selling this is a reaction to earnings right there and we came in to that level it got rejected big-time we called for downside now we're getting it so likely gonna head even lower down to about 950 or so down at 950 is going to be a pretty big support 950 to 940 depending on you know the level that it balances at but that's a big level down here for Amazon earnings coming up for Amazon and to me it's not looking great for Amazon before earnings because we weren't able to break over this gap down so normally what happens is when you get a big gap down on earnings and a perfect example I'm going to show you a a oh I okay this is a perfect example so here we have a big gap down on earnings heavy volume right there okay and this is a very bullish stock if you look at it went straight up for about a year and a half all right so here we have this big gap down on earnings on big volume and then look at how I was never able to break over that gap down right here and what do you know what happened on the next earnings another gap down so going back to Amazon sorry kid type you know we weren't able to break back over that price point before earnings now does that mean we can't head higher no but to me the odds are not really as good as they were let's say in other instances before earnings and so yeah that's why I think that Amazon the risk versus reward on the long side heading into earnings is not favoring the Bull this is another false breakout here that we have so as you can see we have this key resistance here you can clearly see there's a resistance here okay here it is knocking into it again here it is here it is okay and then we cleared it right here okay so very bullish breakout if you look last time we had this pattern and we pointed this out on this video last time we did a video on Facebook we had this rocking it up alright that's what should have happened here but as you can see we broke back under this resistance which turned into support so now it's resistance again that's a false breakout okay and if you go back to last October here we are in October again just like Alibaba happen I'm a zoom in so you can see it even better all right so here we have Facebook this is last October 2016 October look at this setup here's our resistance here it is again here it is again then as you can see it broke back under it right here and I believe this was the earnings reaction as you can see so we had that false breakout right here so you got that warning before earnings came out okay you got that warning before earnings came out that we got rejected at these price points so Facebook did not want to stay up here all right so now you get that warning we're getting that same warning today on Facebook okay same warning today we're getting on Facebook it's a false breakout false breakouts one of my favorite favorite setups because they're very very accurate even more accurate than an actual breakout because you know there's no turning back you know you break over resistance and then you break back under it well that's it that's all you can do you had your chance so that's what I'm seeing on Facebook and the next one the next one wanna cover is Google and Google again here we are with a false breakout once again so here's that resistance right there here's a resistance right here here we are running into it once again and then we broke over it right here here we go and then breaking back under it right here we pointed this out here last week the last video we did on Google we set that if it breaks this low right here that it's gonna be a short right so we broke that low as you can see headed much much lower we're already about 12 dollars lower than where we were starting at this low right there so congrats if you follow it along on that short trade so now Google has earnings coming up but now that it has a false breakout over this resistance back under it to me the risk versus reward on the long side it's kind of not really there for the Bulls now out of all these false breakouts to mean my favorites are Olly Baba and Facebook as far as these Google not necessarily my most favorite because it has kind of had this situation before and it has recovered but I want to point out another situation right here last October as well you can see had a false breakout I'm going to show you right here just like the other ones okay and this is important here because you know it's not just one stock okay it's not just one stock this is a lot of stocks here that are in the Nasdaq all doing the same thing they did last October alright so definitely need to take note it so here's that resistance here it is clearly see it there here it is we broke over it right here look like it was going to be a nice big breakout okay kind of put it out right here and then ended up breaking back below it right here and this was the earnings day right here on the 28th of or that was the reaction to earnings right there so it actually did a false breakout cliff for earnings last time but here on today's action the current action we actually did a false breakout before earnings was released so to me it's even worse now I mean as you can see right here we saw a break back below this resistance which was dipped came back up got rejected against that level right here and then saw a big dip right here obviously again we've recovered here big time and rocketed up after that but I'm talking about just a very short term because that's what we like to cover here at the trading annals it's the short term action the midterm in action what's gonna happen tomorrow what's gonna happen you know in the next couple weeks few weeks our outlook is is in time frame is about that it's about one day about you know one month out so that's where we're coming here in these videos for you the next one we're going to cover is Tesla and Tesla let me get the chart back to the recent action here so let me delete that Fibonacci retracement level just to clean up the chart so as you can see here we dropped big-time for you guys and this is something that if you've been watching these videos you would know that we've been bearish on Tesla you can see we had a false breakout here's the break out over this resistance you can clearly see that resistance here clearly see it we closed over that ever since then well not ever since then we liked we've been liking Tesla for a short pretty much ever since it broke this trend line right here and it's working out beautifully right here we updated you guys on the false breakout right there and then headed lower into our first target here near about 336 you can see it was support here here here and over here a couple days as well so we'll see what happens definitely not great action for Tesla heading into earnings obviously it can you know surprise everyone in the head higher and do all that but to me the technicals are not really looking great for a higher move after earnings a break below 335 to me would be also very unforeseen grats on this downside from about 355 all the way down to 335 $20 move already on that short play the next one we're gonna touch on is Twitter and Twitter this is another one and this is another one that in a false breakout again we called for some downside we're getting that downside again this is why you need to study this pattern okay this pattern here we go you have a resistance here and this is super easy okay super easy guys you have a resistance here it is again hitting that resistance this we broke back below it right here that's when we called for some downside on this stock and here we are getting that downside and today's move was on a little bit above the recent above-average volume so that is bearish as well but we're coming in to the point that I said it could get a bounce at to me I'm not too too eager to to play Twitter I'm alongside but it definitely get a bounce here against this trendline so there's that trendline there's a bounce several bounces here and that's matching up perfectly right here to where we're at as well as the 50-day moving average the next one is apple an apple this is another one that we called for some downside on we called for some downside back when it broke this trendline saw a big move down and up here we called for a rejection at these highs because this was a Bear Flag we were seeing this as a Bear Flag as you can see big gap down and a break out of that bear flag and to me I still think Apple has some downside left in it okay we broke out of that bear flag confirming this bearishness okay so we headed up we didn't get really confirmation until it broke out of it right here so to me that is signaling that we still have more downside left on Appled a lot and took a lot of good notes because that's what we want you to do we want you to ding up a notch and learn even more and make more profitable trades than
Comments 0