저자: KushalLodha · 외국인
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라케시 준준왈라를 기준으로 한 '투자 천재' 공식과 그에 대한 개인적 회고를 다룬 영상. 결론: 투자 천재란 따로 없고 좋은 강세장을 탄 것이 성과의 핵심이라는 주장. 준준왈라 회고: 2000년대 초 IT 강세장을 놓친 것을 아쉬워했고, 2003년 강세장 초입에 일찍 진입해 1년 반 가량 약세장을 겪으며 고생했다는 일화. 성공 요인: 2003~2014년 강세장 동안 타이탄(Titan)에 장기 집중 투자해 큰 성과를 냈고, 여기에는 운과 타이밍, 그리고 포지션을 얼마나 공격적으로 가져갔는지가 작용했다고 설명. 투자 철학: 소수 종목 집중(공격적)과 분산 투자의 차이를 언급하며, 소수 집중은 파멸과 큰 부 모두로 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 발언자 본인은 20종목에 분산해 1000억 대 수익을 내는 방식을 선호한다고 밝힘. 손실 관점: DHFL, 부샨스틸 등 파산·사기 사례가 있었으나 포트폴리오 전체에서 큰 수익 종목이 손실을 상쇄하면 괜찮다는 입장. 공식의 한계: 투자 천재라는 개념은 없으며, 미국·인도처럼 장기 강세장이 있던 나라 투자자가 유리했고 중국·일본은 그렇지 못했다는 구조적 조건 강조. 일화: 경비원도 금 강세장에서 큰돈을 벌었으나 투자 천재는 아니라는 예시를 듦. 주식 대신 금 투자를 권유했던 자신의 트윗과, 그 조언으로 집을 산 지인 사례도 언급. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
So you've made a lot of legendary investors as well. So Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is one of them and I read your article which was like brilliant where you mentioned a formula of investing genius and in that formula you had taken down exactly what is the score of such an investing genius. So what have you learned about Mr.
Rakesh Nazarwal after staying with him and secondly how did you derive that formula ? So me Rakesh of course I have known him and had known him for a long time and again please understand this that investing is a game in which things can change overnight for the better and for the worse it can work either way now for him one of the things that he used to feel bad about weather Sara Tech's Joe Era was that 99 2001 Era of Tech he missed it.
I mean the view was that they are overvalued and whatever they can do, you can have millions of rupees and to some extent the view was justified but the logical view is that it does not play out every day in the market. I mean you can be extra logical and you will miss great trends. It happens. His view was that Infosys is a stock worth 200 p.
This is very expensive. That's how it all set out and that was, in my view, the craziest and probably the best bull market. You can never have anything compared to what we have seen in the last four to five years. I mean, I bought HFCL at 6570 and in two years, it was ₹2500. I mean, that kind of return is 40x in 2 years and a half years.
So, with volume, you can buy in size, exit in size, and for that matter, there were a lot of Indian IT services and tech companies that return you will never make again. It was a mania, and the mania ended like all manias, and you know, at least I was lucky enough to understand that, and I got out before many people did not.
Rakesh did not enter either, he did not, he did not need to exit, but he felt that he missed it. So, basically in 2003, when the bull market revived, he was hungry, okay, it depends on how hungry you are. He became literally A very because when you miss out on the previous party you want to show up early for the next party.
So, he went into the market quite early thinking it was the reception of the bull market that started. If I Remember Correctly in 2002 and Something Like That turned very bullish. But the market kept sliding because it was a very brutal time. You Know Companies Fail 89 Even Something People I Mean Many Companies Who Got The Disappeared DSYQ Software It was those many companies.
So, he got in him too early. So it's like arriving at a party at 10:00 pm, you're landed up at 7:00 pm, he's suffered for the last one and a half years of actually a very, very bad bear market, and that period was very tough for him, very, very tough for him, and then the markets rebounded from 2003 to 2014, and then he had built a position in Titan, he had a position from I think the 90s itself, but he probably increased it around that time, and then Titan turned out to be his ticket to success, which was unimaginable for anybody, and in other words, you can't in all probability things can be, I mean, I can be wrong, we can get a great stock in life, it's not possible to get that kind of stock.
So a lot of things have to happen including a large dose of luck, timing and then how aggressive you are in that position. He went into it all. Now I can never do that. That's not like I said that I would rather make Rs 1000 crore in 20 stocks. Rather make 10,000 crore in two stocks. That's my philosophy.
His philosophy was to be very aggressive in a few stocks. That philosophy can lead you to ruin and it can lead you to great riches. It Did Not Work in the Prior IRA But It Worked in the 20034 IRA Correct. So basically how to look at it is up to everybody but a large dose of being in the right place, right time is really what it comes down to and after that the rest was history.
Now once you make a lot of money in a certain position then it's only a matter of then diversifying into one to two to five to 10 to 15. In between that, you will also make mistakes but ultimately how much will be your mistakes in terms of percentage loss 50% something I mean DHFL went to zero that is a different point Bhashan Steel went to zero but in a portfolio of 20-30 stocks even if some go to zero but the others are five 10 20 times it is it does not matter which what I have been saying they don't worry too much about mistakes and all that is part and parcel there is fraud in Bhushan, there is fraud in DHF DHFL is a company I have known the promoter, the original promoter of 1989 and I always tossed a very good company very clean as a whistle and probably it was when the old man was running it now what all did the sons do now who knows from outside I never owned it Rakesh owned it but inside God knows what was there Happening which we only got to know much later right so don't beat yourself up but in the process of his investing he also made you no made losses in significant once in certain companies but the place you made money is far out the losses.
So how did you derive the formula for Investing Genius ? Then the formula is correct. Well, that's for the article in it. Basically I made it. But basically everyone can give one score. Right? can give. I mean this is an over simplification. Frankly, I don't even think there is anything called investing genius.
Then Nothing Called Genius in This Game. All you need is a good bull market. We have been lucky in India that we have had a good bull market for the last 30 years. People in America have been very lucky that they have had a bull market for 30 years and 40 years since 80 and people in China have not been so lucky.
One cannot become Warren Buffett in China. Cannot be made in Japan. Because the market did not work there. You need a big tailwind of a bull market. Now that is not your genius. That is the destiny of the country. These are the policies of the country. Whatever it is beyond your control. So that's what I said, nothing called investing genius and great investors only make great bull markets.
Now in that bull market, you will make a little more money than me. But that doesn't mean that I am an addict. Because that you are making a little more money. It could be because of more risk, more leverage. I am not taking that risk on that leverage. But we are all making money. But that's that. We are not making money because we are some geniuses.
We're Making Money With The Country and That Asset Class is in gold right now, let's say. My security guard has also made a lot of money. Now you will say, is he an investing genius? No, he has been taking it for 15-20 years. Now you have entered the gold bull market. So now suddenly we will not tell him Yadav ji, you are a great friend, come and blow the Kushal and you know on the podcast.
This is all. You had also tweeted that you had recommended them not to invest in stocks and then invest in gold. He just bought a house, he bought his own house in Bombay with the same gold, wow friend like he did not know anything about it, what is the best, what is the CDMO, CRO, RBI Governor, Nirmala Sitharaman, STG, STT, nothing [laughs] he knows it now, tell him who is smart, hmm, so baby, you need to interview him, true people, because they will tell you that there are many paths to making money, we just think stock market, stock market, stock market, and without knowing anything, money is made. Hmm.
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