저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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결론: 빌 밀러는 비트코인을 '투자 대상'이라기보다 금융 시스템 리스크를 피하는 대안 자산으로 보며, 장기적으로 기술 채택 곡선을 따를 것으로 본다. 비트코인의 문제 해결 측면: 과거 금융위기가 반복되어 왔고, 정부가 독점한 화폐 시스템이 시민 이익과 어긋날 수 있어 자산 일부를 보호할 수단이 필요하다고 주장. 비트코인은 탈중앙·검열저항·공급 고정(2,100만 개)의 특징을 가진다. 수요-공급 근거: 전 세계 백만장자 약 4,700만 명이 1개씩 원해도 공급이 부족하며, 공급은 수요와 무관하게 고정되어 있다고 설명. 네트워크 효과: 브라이언 아서의 이론을 인용해, 기술이 상호운용성과 네트워크 가치를 가지면 초기 폭발적 혁신 후 소수로 수렴하며 지배적 기술(50% 이상 점유)이 나타나면 후발주자는 생존은 하나 성장은 어렵다고 봄. 비트코인 도미넌스가 과거 높았다가 다시 내려온 상태도 언급. 과거 투자 이력: 개인적으로 순자산의 1% 정도를 평균 약 300달러에 매수했다고 밝힘. 스스로를 '강세론자'가 아닌 '관찰자'라 칭하며, 잃어도 감당 가능한 금액만 투자하라는 비대칭 리스크·보상 관점을 제시. 리스크 및 조건: 수많은 코인·ICO 중 대부분은 가치가 없을 수 있다고 인정. 2021년 4월 시점 기준 과거 발언이며 특정 가격 목표치는 제시하지 않음. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인이 기술 확산 패턴을 따를 것이라 보며 긍정적이나 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않음. 사회자 발언 및 기타 자산(주식·금리·환율 등)에 대한 언급은 없음.
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one of the best uh investors of all time and certainly the best uh investor in public uh financial services stock and and maybe bill you could talk a little bit about your own um uh way that you came to bitcoin and maybe talk a little bit about uh network effects well first i i caught i caught uh tim earlier had his bitcoin tie on set aside where my bitcoin had killed my street cred and bitcoin maximalism um yeah so just this just as with pete i came to bitcoin via wences i met wences i think it was 2013 maybe latest 2014.
i think it's 2013 out at sun valley at the at the annual conference that um allen company has which brings together people from uh tech people silicon valley entrepreneurs government officials and people from sports in hollywood and um and whence this gave a gave a talk similar to what he what he what he said today a little longer talk explaining explaining bitcoin and i was interested enough that and i you know i hadn't had lunch and we chatted about this and and um and i was interested enough in it to sponsor a conference at the santa fe institute where i was chairman at the time and as you might know the santa institute is a is a scientific research organization that is involved in complex systems theory and and so we we did a conference that had a similar name to our panel it was called money past present and future and i invited wences to give a give a talk at that and it brought together sf5 by the way was founded by a variety of uh scientists including three nobel prize winners uh ken aero and economics and murray gilman in physics and phil anderson in physics but we brought together a group of economists cryptographers mathematicians historians sociologists archaeologists physicists and then you know business people investors entrepreneurs to just look at the history of of of money and how did it evolve what had happened uh and how different disciplines thought of it and then um and it was a very synoptic uh view of things and it became clear to me at the time that i think we had the same reaction at this group which is roughly a year after the sun valley conference that i saw at sun valley and i would i would venture to say it's the same today so there were probably 350 people at sun valley when wentz escaped his gave his talk and i i would guess that if that 350 people if you surveyed them and usually you know very very prominent bill gates is always there warren buffett if you surveyed these people today you know call it six seven years after after that talk and observing what's happened with bitcoin i bet you wouldn't find five percent of them that on bitcoin and at the the same thing with the folks at santa fe very very smart people um i would guess maybe maybe it's 10 of that so it's extraordinarily early in the in the adoption cycle with with bitcoin and when when mike mentioned that he talked to stan druckenmiller saying it was a solution in search of a problem i i would and i have great respect for stan obviously but i think it's it's fairly clear what the deal is with bitcoin i mean the question is what what um what role does it play i mean what what is it what problems it solved and going all the way back to the to the history of money in fact the first financial crisis was you know in rome with tacitus in the in the first century first century a.d and that they've been recurring events in in economic history all the way up until up until last year in 2008 and 2009 and the problem it solves is how do you how do you uh how do you safeguard a portion of your assets from the vagaries of the financial system and especially a system which is monopolized by by governments and those monopolies uh have a way of behaving in ways that are in their own personal interests and not necessarily as once demonstrated in the interest of the citizens and uh and so i think that's the problem that bitcoin solves it's complete you know it's what what it's a decentralized peer-to-peer permissionless um unhackable permanent record of of various transactions and it's the only economic unit that i'm aware of that is both infinitely divisible and instantly transportable where the supply is completely independent of the demand so no matter what the demand is for bitcoin the supply is 21 million and there's you know it's estimated there are 47 million millionaires in the world and so if each millionaire wanted one bitcoin he or she couldn't have it they'd have to settle for something less and i think i think you know coinbase has something like what i recall like 58 million users or something like that and so there's there's there's you know billions of smartphones out there all of which you know can send and transmit bitcoin so friedrich hayek wrote a monograph called the denationalization of money where he argued that you know that the money being monopolized has a similar problems with whether it be violence being monopolized by by governments or education being monopolized or you know that there are things that the private sector can do that the governments can't do or won't do and he argued for you know uh basically denationalizing money and having all kinds of money and i think somebody earlier mentioned that we did have a period before the civil war where that what that was the case um but now let me just get to what pete was what pete was talking about about a little about network effects um so bitcoin basically is that you know it's a global computer network that's that's what it is and the computer network is set up to to validate transactions and to keep a record of those transactions and it's it's paid by uh generating you know generating about 900 bitcoin 900 bitcoin a day and what i found so interesting about about this this network is that it's following the same adoption cycle that all of the great technological innovations uh have had and when i bought the bitcoin which i i followed once this is you and i put one percent of my liquid net worth in it and i think my average cost was around three hundred dollars what's up sorry um so and but i was you know i was referred to for a long time as a bitcoin bull and i'd correct that so i'm not a bitcoin bill i'm a bitcoin observer i'm just observing what's still what it's doing and uh and and what i could afford to lose anybody can afford to lose one or even two percent of their net worth um but there's asymmetric risk reward here and so i was an observer up until probably a year and a half ago and then it's kind of like no this is this is actually going to work it survived a lot of a lot of travails and it's it's it's continuing to survive and thrive and so if you go back and look just all the way back look at the printing press and then look at the steam engine and then and then look at railroads electricity autos computers the internet all of them follow a similar path it's a path that um you know if you can read the book called the diffusion of innovation by of rogers at classic or maybe make it more up-to-date uh the the stanford economist for foreign stanford economist brian arthur has two books one of them called increasing returns in path dependence in the economy and the other called the nature of technology and what brian talks about in that in that book and i'll wrap i'll wrap up here to you know not to monopolize things but what brian talks about in those books is that is that the because the technology is required to be interoperable and and so and when you when it also consists of networks and the networks become more valuable the more people are on the network then they they follow a certain a certain path and what happens is that when you what initially there's a burst of innovation we saw that with bitcoin being the first but then ethereum came along and then you had other ones and then you had the forks and then you had this explosion of of icos and those you know i think we have 8 500 or something now tokens and icos floating out there most of which i think are worthless or will be or will be worthless but again that's a very traditional thing in evolutionary theory where you had you know if you had you had the cambrian explosion where you know after a great extinction event all kinds of new life forms sprung up but then it coalesced down to a smaller number and in technology what happens is once you reach what brian regards as lock in so once you reach a dominance of a particular technology that's 50 or greater then it's very very difficult not other technologies can survive but they can't drive and they will never be anything like what those uh those dominant technologies are and we see that right today so once we had dominance with google in search google dominates search facebook and social amazon and amazon and uh in retail uh so with those you know with those kinds of things you're getting the same thing in bitcoin i think wences had what i thought was one of the more remarkable comments this bitcoin dominance right now has come down again in this flurry of of activity but bitcoin dominance and correct me if i'm wrong here and electricity usage is something like your energy usage is something like 98 so it's a very very large number and it basically indicates kind of game over in that you know in that in that space so i'll i'll just end by saying what brian arthur showed in his work is as he says of networks there will be few
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