저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 급락은 기회이며, 에너지·소비재·채권 등에서 매수 기회를 찾을 수 있다는 견해. 시장 반응: 유럽이 미국만큼 크게 하락한 것은 맞지 않다고 봄. 미국은 천연가스 등 에너지 자급 상태라 에너지 문제가 크지 않다고 평가. 전쟁과 시장 심리: 전쟁이 금요일 등 주말에 발생하는 경우가 역사적으로 많아 월요일 반응이 이어진다고 언급. 바이든 행정부가 사전 경고를 충분히 했기 때문에 시장이 충격으로 반응하는 것은 과도하다는 취지. 일부 자산운용사가 숏을 커버하기 시작했다고 언급. 석유: 석유 관련 주는 매도(스케일 아웃)해야 한다는 의견. 다만 석유 상승 지속성에 대한 질문은 받고 있다고 언급. 채권과 배당: 가격이 떨어진 배당주와 quality 국채가 매력적이라고 봄. 소비재·제약: 유가 상승과 인플레이션 우려에도 P&G 등 소비재 및 J&J 등 제약주는 경기침체와 무관해 매력적이며, 프록터앤갬블이 150달러 이하로 떨어지면 매수 가능하다고 언급. 임의소비재(discretionary) 종목은 하락 가능성이 있다고 봄. 리스크와 조건: 전쟁이 3일 내 끝나면 기회가 있다고 보며, 러시아 체제가 유지되고 독일이 노르드스트림2 승인을 미루는 등 제재가 장기화되면 경제 영향이 커질 수 있음. 중국이 유럽과의 일대일로 관계 때문에 유럽을 해치지 않을 것이라는 관측도 언급. 출연자 전망: 전쟁 피해를 일부 인정하지만 단기 과매도 후 반등 가능성에 무게를 둠.
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i i do believe that we're down as much as uh europe which isn't right uh europe's directly impacted in terms of the energy costs let me just back up for a second this is horrendous uh that he is going to get away with it which i think he can because he's got basically a lightning strike here uh is evil but at the same time i recognize that we have thought about this every day i don't think president biden could have prepared us more for how this is going to happen there were daily david daily reports that's going to happen so now the market's reacting like it's a shock and that means you got to go against the market because the markets could be wrong today okay so you you believe this is i you know again we don't want to make light of the humanitarian crisis that said we're here to talk about the implications economically and for markets and what i'm hearing you say is there may be an opportunity here um i am saying there may be an opportunity now we've got friday which is sort of historically a weekday when you go into a war monday where people are discovering this i think you always have to remember that there are people who woke up today and looked at their 401ks i got to take some action here but at the same time david we must understand that we have been preparing ourselves endlessly for this that does not mean we can't go down again no and there have been some there have been asset managers have been preparing as well by getting short and perhaps they're starting to in fact i talked to a couple this morning actually cover a bit here because if you've been paying attention certainly if you read that speech earlier this week well the speech was a stolen speech it made it clear that perhaps clearer that this was a a very significant possibility right um and so yeah uh there are those who are going to start to actually use this as an opportunity to cover shorts they don't put in as a result of expectations and sell oils because oil should be sold because their oil is you know the question i keep getting is how sustained is the move in oil because of any economic ramification broadly speaking it certainly is that one you obviously pointed out energy prices in europe which has a broader impact there certainly natural gas prices were up dramatically we've talked a lot here about germany's decisions in terms of relying on solar and wind and saying no to nuclear and how they're ruining that decision perhaps there and in other parts of europe not as much france by the way no still as they used to say but for nuclear they have that excellent way to be able to store the interest i i think carl one of the things that we got to recognize is that their problems are not our problems you know we started uh at four o'clock we were down much less uh we do have abundant natural gas they do not uh we do not have an energy problem in this country we have a survey of energy particularly if we wanted to drill but we've held back i don't think that and you know if you're some of these oil companies their their ratio is 30 40 it's worth it for them to drill even though they've held back so i do think the oils should be scaled out of i think that if you want to buy yield and i do that really at these prices if you get if stocks that have yield and applied right to plate to quality treasuries make a lot of sense to me you'll notice that a bunch of them aren't even down anything that is drug and if we're not related to the recession that this market is predicted i think is very attractive today today i even think that you can go by the proctors proctor if it reaches 150 you buy it because we're going to see a slowdown and it's all now not i'm not saying that we're going to have a big roll back in inflation but you have to buy the stocks that if you presume that j-pal moves anyway yeah well you buy drugs you buy consumer package good stocks even though they have i was going to say inflation even with the currency effects and even with the slew of names that have not had good things to say about the consumer this week uh we got more last night everything from ebay to bed bath to discretionary descriptions yeah discretion discretionary hurts by the way is going to be down discretionary this is discretionary i don't want to buy anything that that doesn't need you know where you don't have to go i mean i think that you're not going to stop buying j and j products even as much as i think that their issues legally i just don't want to get ahead of what i regard as being an opportunity over a three-day period if this war ends uh in war ends because a russian has been installed we've not really seen the ukrainian president of late then what happens uh we the germans uh continue to say no to order two they wait till the spring yeah you would expect that the sanctions would deepen and or stay in place for a long period it's a very different economy than 1997.
it's a self-sustaining economy you're talking about russia yes and unless you think that china comes in and says you know what we are now going to risk fracturing our newfound relationship because we're so embedded into belt and road remember when you fly into milan all you see are giant belt and road initiative signs prc prc prc and much of europe so the prc does not want to disable europe
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