저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 톰 리는 비트코인이 현재 약 4만 달러 수준에서 장기적으로 10만~20만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장하며, 주요 근거는 미국 가계 순자산의 채권 이탈 자금 유입과 네트워크 가치 증가다. 시장 현황: 발언 시점 비트코인은 약 4만3천 달러, 이더리움 약 3천 달러였다. 분석가들은 비트코인이 1월 저점을 찍고 반등 중이며 지지선 약 4만1,900달러, 저항선 약 4만5,400달러, 이후 4만9,000달러(200일 이평선)를 언급했다. 뉴스 요약: 슈퍼볼 광고에 크립토닷컴·코인베이스 등이 대거 출연했고, 블록파이는 고금리 예치 상품으로 SEC에 1억 달러 과징금을 냈다. 랜섬웨어 수익의 약 4분의 3(약 4억 달러)이 러시아 관련 주소로 흘러갔다는 보고서도 소개됐다. 톰 리의 핵심 논리: 미국 가계 순자산은 142조 달러로 GDP의 5배 이상이며, 금리 상승으로 향후 10년간 채권 손실이 확실한 'TINA(보장된 채권 손실)' 자금이 약 55~60조 달러에 달한다. 이 자금이 주식(FANG 등)이나 암호화폐로 이동할 것으로 본다. 장기 예측: 비트코인 목표가 10만 달러, 이후 20만 달러(장기). 근거는 네트워크 가치가 참여자 수에 비례한다는 점이다. 리스크 1: 에너지 비용이 0에 수렴하면 51% 공격이 가능해져 비트코인 보안이 무너질 수 있다. 리스크 2: 양자컴퓨팅 등으로 암호 해시가 뚫리면 작업증명 개념 자체가 무력화된다. 상방 촉매: 65세 이상이 미국 부의 76%(약 100조 달러)를 보유하고 있어, 이들이 규제 명확화 후 2% 정도만 비트코인에 배분해도 네트워크 가치가 5~15배 증가할 수 있다. 추가 발언: 앤서니 노토(소파이 CEO)는 비트코인·이더리움을 보유하지만 포트폴리오의 아주 작은 부분이라고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 톰 리는 비트코인 장기 상승을 낙관하나, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 3개월 예측은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
today we talked to fun strat's tom lee on whether the 2022 crypto winter is over and his firm's 200 000 forecast on bitcoin prices plus crypto companies flood the zone with ads during the super bowl and a new report says the vast majority of ransomware revenue ended up in russia last year welcome to cnbc's crypto world i'm mackenzie sagalos this is a brand new five day a week show dedicated to all that's happening in the world of cryptocurrencies we'll cover the price moves the technology that makes crypto trading possible regulation around the world and a whole lot more so let's get started cryptocurrency staged a bit of a comeback late this morning the market as a whole gained about six tenths of a percent by noon eastern bitcoin prices hovered right around forty three thousand dollars after rising by eight tenths of a percent since yesterday ether rose more than two percent and it sat around three thousand dollars meanwhile xrp fell by nearly one percent now for more context on all that's happening in the crypto market we turn to our own tanaya mckeel analysts are telling me bitcoin is really range bound right now some are saying it found the lower end of that range in january and is now in the process of reversing higher so the support level at least one analyst has told me um is looking at about thousand three hundred however they say bitcoin is not really in store for a near-term test anytime soon i also talked to someone else who said you know keep an eye on the 50-day moving average that's about the 41 900 mark says traders might be using that support level as a stop level um with resistance at about 45 400 that could even go up to 49 000 which would be the 200 moving day average okay so you're up to date on crypto prices so now let's catch you up on the headlines first up if you watched the super bowl last night there is no way you could miss the buzz around crypto crypto.com coinbase etoro and ftx all ran ads during the game now some featured stars like lebron james and larry david while others were as simple as a bouncing screen saver it is a sign of the technology going mainstream sure but the number of crypto related tv spots is even more impressive if you consider the six and a half million dollar price tag for a 30-second ad slot during the super bowl the nfl itself could be getting even more into crypto soon the league recently disclosed that it lobbied the sec on quote issues related to blockchain technology between july and december of 2021.
now speaking of the sec it just reached a record settlement with blockvi over its lending product the wealth management company agreed to pay a 100 million penalty for its high-yield interest accounts which the sec claimed were unregistered securities the wall street journal called it the largest penalty yet levied against a crypto company block five first came under fire from regulators back in november of 2021 when it was sent a cease and desist notice from four different states now the company can no longer offer its high-yield lending service to customers in the u.s and finally we're keeping an eye on the rising tensions between russia and ukraine so here's the latest on crypto in the region a new report from chain alice's found that nearly three-quarters of all revenue from ransomware attacks or about 400 million dollars likely went to addresses affiliated with russia between 2019 and 2021 as much as 48 of all crypto sent to businesses in moscow were from quote illicit and risky addresses according to the report one such recipient is suex which has been sanctioned by the us government now for our main story of the day fellow crypto world host kate rooney spoke with tom lee bunstrat's co-founder and head of research to get his outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2022 i am joined here on crypto world with tom lee he's the co-founder and head of research at fun strat tom thank you so much for being here great to see you yeah great to see you and you guys have some really unique ways of valuing bitcoin and a lot of other crypto assets uh walk us through some of the on-chain data you use and some of the things that you're looking at that really aren't available in traditional equities and how you think um you know bitcoin is different from equities or bonds in any of the traditional assets that you might also cover at fundstrad i mean in essence i think crypto's interesting because every transaction is traceable um i mean unless you're using like a mixer but um that's what makes bitcoin interesting that it's not a way to really disguise what you're doing uh you could be anonymous but your wallet's not anonymous and that's what makes crypto interesting because one uh not only can you actually look at the number of existing holders of crypto but you can track the history but ultimately the value of crypto is is just going to grow by the number of holders which means there's a network value so it's important for community growth one of the things that i think is challenging is that not every community member is as valuable so i think there's going to be a lot of work done in the future about what is the proper value add by an incremental member what's holding it back uh i mean we're sort of in this forty thousand dollar range what needs to change in your mind to get bitcoin to that hundred thousand and eventually two hundred thousand dollar level um if you look at u.s household net worth which is 142 trillion um which is a staggering number i mean that's more than five times gdp it's almost six times um as interest rates look like they're set to reverse almost 30 years it declines right i think interest rates probably are either flat or rising that means for the next 10 years you're guaranteed to lose money owning bonds and so we call that guaranteed tina that's 55 trillion dollars almost 60 trillion of the 142 trillion so the question we ask ourselves is where is the 60 trillion going to go uh to earn yield and the obvious thing is going to be it rotates into stocks like fang maybe it goes into crypto because you can generate yield um through yield farming or lending but i think what is more likely is that a lot of uh speculative capital from equities flows into crypto so i think it's really going to be tracing its roots to a rotation out of bonds is going to eventually flow into crypto perfect i want to end with the biggest potential downside and the biggest potential upside catalyst for you and that 200 000 eventual target what do you look to as you know the the thing that could unravel that um on the downside and then i'll also ask you about uh you know the best news you could possibly get but we'll start with maybe the negative end on a positive yeah i think the biggest downside for crypto will actually be an exp a vulnerability exposed in bitcoin because it's the most important blockchain and the one with the most value stored on it and there's really two things that could happen one is if the cost of energy globally fell to zero because if you don't have to spend money to protect a security network then it means someone can launch a proof of basically a 51 attack um and of course the second is that cryptographic hash uh becomes exposed you know meaning someone finds a way to actually you know whether it's quantum to essentially defeat the proof-of-work concept itself so i'd say those are the biggest downside risk and in terms of upside risk at the end of the day um if i had to say what's the simplest way for for a big step function to happen in crypto it's really getting existing generations of investors in the us not new investors to actually be willing to allocate to bitcoin and 76 of all the wealth in america is controlled by people over age 65.
so that's you know nearly 100 trillion dollars uh held by people that think bitcoin is still kind of a hobby or things that people who live in the basement play with so i think regulation could actually unlock a lot of that movement i mean just imagine you know two percent out of 100 trillion allocated to crypto you know you could see a 5 to 10 15 times increase in in total network value before we go sophie's ceo anthony noto spoke to cnbc's squawk box about the crypto buzz at the super bowl here's what he had to say i mean we're invested in cryptocurrency we own bitcoin we own ethereum we own some of the more obscure different cryptocurrencies but it's a very small part of what we own and with that you are all cut up for today but we'll be back again tomorrow with more so we'll see you then you
Comments 0