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TSM 3분기 실적은 매출 202억 달러(전년비 36% 성장)로 컨센서스를 상회, 영업이익률 약 50%로 매우 우수. 다만 2023년 업계 성장률 둔화 전망, 중국 리스크·미국 대중 제재, 자본지출 축소(360억 달러)가 우려 요인. 주가는 고점 대비 큰 폭 하락한 상태로 기술적으로 장기 상승추세 하단 이탈 중이며, 추가 하락 가능성을 언급하며 분할 매수와 마진 미사용을 권고.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there you know it must be earning season we're up at 6 a.m over here at the investor Channel we haven't showered we haven't eaten because we've got to take a look at the Q3 earnings that just came across from Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company otherwise known as TSM that's the ticker symbol sometimes it's referred to tsmc over the last year this stock like a lot of stocks down big down 41 year to date down 50 percent this one's been walloped oh my goodness we've got a p e ratio forward of just 10 on this one your dividend yield is creeping closer to about three percent you've got a market cap of about 323 billion dollars when we go through these numbers we'll still see a company with absolutely fantastic growth rate a company with a dominant Market position we'll jump into the financials take a look at the balance sheet the profits the cash flows everything that you love with this company and then you come over here to the stock chart and it has gotten super ugly so we'll talk about that as well let's jump right into that Q3 numbers we had Revenue coming in at 20.23 billion dollars that was 36 percent growth year over year it did be Expectations by about 1.14 billion dollars we'll come over here to the expectations Wall Street was expecting about 19 billion dollars of Revenue the high-end estimate out of 23 analysts on Wall Street coming in at 19.75 billion dollars so this 20.23 billion dollar number certainly very very strong gross margins were fantastic operating margins everything across the board looked fantastic with this company now we also got guidance for the upcoming fourth quarter as well for TSM revenue is expected to be about between 19.9 and 20.7 so there's a chance we see a little bit of a sequential fall on those revenues going from 20 maybe down to about 19.9 I did want to show you the analyst estimates was for 19.48 billion dollars in the fourth quarter again this is for the upcoming quarter that we just got guidance on we'll go through the third quarter here in a second take a look at that from a financial perspective but look the upcoming quarter is still gonna show you about 22 23 growth in fact the high-end Wall Street analyst estimate was for 20.5 so if this company comes close or even exceeds the 20.7 billion dollars worth of Revenue that they're thinking that could come down the pike down in Q4 well they'll certainly come over expectations again and you've also got another quarter of over 20 growth but that's not the story that a lot of investors are looking at today and probably for good reason as well a lot of investors are looking out into q1 Q2 really all of 2023 and there's a lot of mystery about what's going on now analysts are expecting those fantastic 20 30 growth rates at TSM and for all chip makers across the market to decline to very slow Revenue growth for basically all of 20 23 expected to grow just 4.7 percent then 2.5 percent then back up to seven and then somehow we're gonna go back into double digits towards the back half of next year certainly if you believe that is the story that will likely play out I tell you what a company like this if you're comfortable with the China risk if you're comfortable with the fact that the United States is starting to sanction China when it comes to these chips and certainly going to impact TSM as their customers like Nvidia AMD and others might not be able to sell into that China Market as easily as they had in the past we'll see what happens a lot to discuss with this company now they also discuss the fact that they're going to actually cut their Capital expenditures otherwise known as capex for 2022 to around 36 billion dollars that's pretty significant because the company said in July they were likely to spend 40 billion to 44 billion dollars for the upcoming fiscal year so they've actually really slash their capex budget now it's for two reasons number one is the fact that capacity optimism otherwise known as demand for their products certainly has started to wane as nvidia's overstocked on inventory so is AMD Intel all down the line we're seeing lower demand for chips from the PC space but also potentially for the server space obviously for gaming and crypto mining a lot of that air has been let out of the balloon so they're pulling back there but they're also seeing challenges and getting tools delivered so they chip making obviously requires some very specialized tools some very expensive tools and those are being delayed as well according to management over at TSM on the conference call now let's jump over these financials because I think you're going to absolutely fall in love with these we've got tons of cash over at this company over 40.8 billion dollars worth of cash or nearly 40.8 billion dollars worth of cash the company carries a ton of property plant and equipment and if you've been following this space you you know that this is very valuable property plant and Equipment because one of the competitive advantages that this company has is it doesn't have a lot of competitors and their competitors like Intel and others that are trying to build up these Fabs they're still years away maybe even a decade away from really scaling up to anywhere close to where TSM is and obviously this company is going to be able to continue to scale up during that time frame as well this company has nearly 76 billion dollars worth of property plant and equipment and to balance that off they have very few liabilities just about 60 billion in liabilities to be balanced off by over 63 billion dollars worth of total current assets and total assets period is over 146 billion dollars if there wasn't that China risk on this one I probably would be piling into a stock like this over the next couple of months because when we come over here to the profit and loss statement it is just gorgeous you had that 20 point two billion dollars worth of Revenue we talked about how that was 36 percent growth year over year and then we're expected to do in that range in the fourth quarter now obviously analysts are expecting this to drop down under 19 billion or actually under 18 billion dollars for the next couple of quarters to re-accelerate back into that 20 billion range the reason why that's important is the fact that they have cost of Revenue of just eight billion dollars now there's probably some investors that are concerned that as the nvidias have to pull back as the amds have to pull back and all the customers have to sign up pull back on the demand that they're seeing well then TSM might have to pull back on their gross margins no evidence of that yet but that is one of the very attractive things about this company off of 20.2 billion dollars worth of Revenue they had gross profit of 12.2 billion dollars they have very few operating expenses a total operating expense coming in at just 1.9 billion dollars so you take 20.2 billion dollars worth of Revenue you minus off about eight billion dollars worth of cost you get 12.2 billion dollars worth of gross profit you minus off another 1.9 we'll call that nearly 2 billion dollars worth of operating expenses and then you get to the all-important income from operations at 10.2 billion dollars that is like 50 in fact in excess of 50 operating margins so for every dollar in Revenue they're clearing nearly 50 cents in profit this is one of the most impressive things that you'll see you don't see this very often when you analyze these financials you pull all the way down to net income after they pay everything and it paints basically the same story 9.2 billion dollars worth of net income this company prints nearly 50 percent of their revenue all the way down to net income you don't see this very often and if there wasn't all these other risks in the market this certainly could be a easily a top 10 holding for most investors and for some investors that are looking for that type of risk that this stock does have with that geopolitical tensions that you have going on with China and kind of the rest of the world and the rest of the West this could be a top five holding with these types of financials now for the nine month ended we're looking at cash flows here you see this company generated 38 billion dollars of net cash provided by those operating activities now we talked at the jump on the balance sheet they spend a boatload on that property plant and Equipment 25 billion dollars over the last nine months on that alone so that's going to chew up a lot of that cash flow a lot of those profits but it still leaves plenty for this company to then pay dividends they paid about 7.3 billion dollars worth of dividends over the last couple of months over the last nine months to be specific but given this company's profit margins and their strong Revenue this is one of the better Financial stocks that we look at outside of the apples and the microsofts and the Googles to be quite Frank with everybody now let's come over here and look at this from a technical perspective it's looking like a lot of stocks we're starting to test and in this case even break through what we're talking about decade long uptrends that we're seeing since the depths of the great financial crisis back in 2008 this stock has been on An Elevator Shaft upwards now obviously like a lot of stocks took a big gigantic probably over reaction type jump after the March of 2020 lows and it just skyrocketed from about fifty dollars per share all the way up over to nearly 150 dollars per share that certainly wasn't warranted now I am on a weekly view I'm starting to look at stocks from a weekly view to make myself maybe feel a little bit better about these things but this downward channel is still intact and it's still intact until it's not I still think you're looking at these companies if you have a longer term perspective five six seven year type perspective maybe even 10 years for some of you well a stock like this can be accumulated at these times but understand the momentum is completely out of these names and there's the potential for much deeper drops on this one but historically this period over the last uh more than a decade has been a wonderful buying opportunity when it's pulled back to this weekly time frame I'm sure we could switch this over to a monthly view paints an identical story as well it's just been on this Elevator Shaft upward now obviously those things can break you do have some support down here at about 56 dollars per share it's about nine dollars lower there's further support down here at about 49 per share now we're getting nearly 20 lower and there's probably kind of this Rock Bottom price down here at thirty four dollars that's still another 30 or 40 percent decline on this one we're already from the highs this stock made back in January we're already down 56 on this one if we pull back a little bit more to this area of support that's a nearly 60 drop you have another area of support here at about 68 Decline and I think your Rock Bottom is from from the highs nearly 75 percent I don't know if that provides any comfort because if this stock continues to drop you could have potentially another 40 percent decline on this one and at least another 20 decline that's why if you're inching into these stocks which I actually think is a good idea you want to do it very very slowly one step at a time I would not use margin in this environment there's certainly options strategies that could give you a little bit of margin of for safety as well what the premiums are in this environment is up for you to decide but TSM is just a wonderful company from Financial perspective from a demand perspective going forward a little bit shaky from a regulatory perspective very shaky from a geopolitical perspective extremely shaky but you've got a very reasonable price to earnings price to sales on this type of stock given its growth rate given its profitability given its balance sheet is about as good as it gets that's in the shorter term investors are extremely nervous but in the longer term it's going to be stocks like this that have epic rallies over a short period of time as the market starts to get greedy once again hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video lots more videos coming over the next month as earnings season has officially begun hope you guys have a wonderful day out there good luck with your Investments
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