저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 Q3 실적은 매출 131억 달러(+47% YoY)로 컨센서스에 부합했으나, Q4 가이던스 140억 달러가 시장 기대를 소폭 하회해 시간외에서 약 5% 하락. 성장분 대부분은 VMware 인수 효과이며 기존 사업은 약 4% 성장. 비용 효율화와 현금흐름 개선이 긍정적이라 평가. 기술적으로 122~130달러 구간을 매수 관심 구간으로 제시.
다듬은 글
broadcom Q3 earnings just came out and Wall Street is definitely not liking it as in the after hours we're seeing at the current moment shares of broadcom down by about 5% we'll talk about some of the reasons why shares of broadcom are down in the after hours a lot of it has to do with the Ford guidance of the fourth quarter we'll talk about how this company grew over the past year as Revenue came in at a whopping $113 billion and some change that's 47% growth year-over-year but the devil's in the details how much did the core business over at broadcom as most of you know the company purchased VMware over the past 12 months and that is leading to a lot of the revenue growth that you've seen year-over-year speaking of the revenue growth we'll look at the revenue the profits how has Hawk tan integrated VMware are the sales and the cost starting to balloon over this company or is he keeping a lid on expenses and continuing to drive bottom line results we'll also take a look at cash flows very important as it relates to broadcom and we'll come over here and look at this technically I think you'll probably all agree this is definitely a stock that you want to own for the long term since back in 2010 the stock is pretty much only gone up minus a few deviations so after the Q3 results do you step in and buy the dip on broadcom we'll answer that question and more on today's show what is going on V hopefully guys are doing well out there we got broadcom today over the last year this thing's up big time up 75% even year to date up 36% any way you slice it this thing has been doing pretty darn good but we are seeing a slide this week a lot of volatility in the markets and semiconductor stocks in particular going on a slide now broadcom is a unique Semiconductor Company because they also have a software business which they've acquired mainly through Acquisitions now Revenue came in at 13.07 billion in the quarter that was 47% growth year-over-year the Wall Street expectations were right around 13 billion the highend estimate was closer to about 13.8 so the company just constantly Meeting those expectations if you know anything about the CEO Hawk tan he likes to set the expectations relatively low and then have a natural beat he has kind of a private Equity background so he knows what Wall Street likes he knows what analysts like he doesn't want to create any surprises now we did get a surprise though maybe a disappointing surprise the fact that the fourth quarter Revenue guidance coming in at $14 billion but keep in mind this company is relatively conservative but that was what Wall Street was expecting in fact the midpoint estimate was for a little bit over 14 billion the high-end was for $14.6 billion the company just beat Expectations by about $110 million so you got to expect broadcom going to probably come in at 14.1 maybe as high as 14.2 next quarter but that certainly is not meeting the expectations That Wall Street already had set which was for 51% growth year-over-year now the growth is a little misleading and a little deceiving for broadcom as they completed a gigantic acquisition of VMware over the past year in fact if you look at the company's financials and look at the details that the company grew 47% year-over-year to $13.1 billion worth of Revenue but minus out the contributions of V mware which was acquired over the past 12 months and you compare the core business that existed 12 months ago for broadcom year over-year you actually grew and I say only only 4% year-over-year now company is certainly one of the largest AI accelerating data center providers of those chips including networking and custom accelerators particularly for Google we'll talk about also that broadcom is potentially going to work with open AI about producing a new AI chip if you are a premier software provider and you want to create your own custom silicon broadcom is certainly a phone call that you'll have to make now over the past year this definitely looks a little bit light compared to Nvidia but we have to keep in mind Nvidia is the Michael Jordan of the AI accelerator Data Center business broadcom very much a major player there as they expect a revenue in this fiscal year which ends next quarter to be about $12 billion now obviously Nvidia is doing that every month and a half just gives you an idea of where Nvidia is with their business model but certainly broadcom paying a very close second as amd's business model I don't even think has eclipsed the double digit Mark but also keep in mind that broadcom's numbers do include some networking equipment as well so we had that $ 13.1 billion worth of Revenue keep in mind also that we got guidance for the upcoming quarter we're going to come in at about $4 billion the way the company laid out their financials is last year minus VMware we did about $8.9 billion now you're bolting on a gigantic software business so that increase your Revenue so really the way you are going to look at this at least in the shorter term till that VMware acquisition actually starts lapping and you can probably see that on the company's estimates as you get into Q2 next year companies expected to grow kind of low teens mid teens growth rate at least on that Revenue side but the revenue is not the full story when you have acquis positions like that you have to have the right management in place to find those efficiencies you don't need two accountant staffs you don't need three or four different corporate lawyers you just need the ones that you had and your core team and you're going to see evidence of that when we roll through these cost you do have some amortization of acquisition related assets those are going to roll off at some point we're seeing those flatten out quarter over quarter total cost of Revenue despite the growth quarter over quarter from 125 up to 13 billion notice that your total cost of Revenue basically flat that's exactly what you want to see so higher Revenue lower costs that led to higher gross margins from 78 up to about $8.4 billion now we did spend a lot more on research and development $2.4 billion basically flat quarter over quarter but obviously a billion dollars higher than it was last year now you got a much larger company so you're selling General administrative expenses also going to completely balloon this is what hawan is know own for notice last year on $8.9 billion of quarter Revenue they had just $388 Million worth of sgna costs it probably pains this guy he's probably losing sleep the fact that it ballooned to $1.3 billion a billion dollars over what it was a year ago or at least almost notice that that has trimmed from 1.3 billion down to one one and I would imagine as we get into next year the company is going to figure out a way to get this cost under a billion dollars so you're going to have more cost savings likely as we continue to move forward you have some restructuring and other charges as obviously people are losing their jobs when you have combined companies like this some of the staff that is not needed that was already existed at broadcom lose their job we feel bad for them but they are getting Severance and other type of pay packages those are recognized here we'd expect those to roll off the books as you move into next calendar year your total operating income came in at $3.8 billion disappointing considering last year you did 3.8 billion but again it's not the full story quarter over quarter you went from we'll call that 3 billion up to 3.8 billion so everything looking pretty solid from a balance sheet perspective cash has rolled off the balance sheet as you'd expect as they completed a gigantic acquisition long-term debt ticked up big time from 37 all the way up to 66 lower interest rates will definitely benefit broadcom is they're probably not paying a huge percentage on that note but what it will do when we get to cash flows we'll show you they outlaid a lot of cash to repay long-term debt well one strategy they can do is when interest rates begin to drop again likely in the next month or two well instead of having to pay off all the debt or some of it you might be able to roll it over into a new term debt and that will certainly benefit the company at least from a cash perspective from a cash flow perspective everything's actually pretty steady when you strip out the restructuring strip out all the cost that the company has had to incur over the past year or so you notice last year you at 4.7 now you're closer to five last quarter you're 46 so you're certainly moving in the right direction give this company another six to 12 months and things will look really really solid from a cashow perspective they sold the business in the most recent quarter but you see the strength of this business once you kind of lap some of these acquisition charges and those types of things well you're creating we'll call it right around $5 billion of quarterly operating cash flow but look they don't have to do anything they're not building fabricating facilities like Intel is doing they spent just $172 million in fact if you're in the Bay Area and you drive by the Luscious offices of Google or Apple or meta and then you drive by broadcom you almost miss it okay this company is known for having things really lean and mean and when you buy drive by this company's office building it certainly doesn't look like a company that's worth north of $700 billion you got to respect that as a shareholder now if I wanted to work somewhere in the Silicon Valley probably wouldn't be broadcom I'd like all the perks that Google and these other companies offer but when you're a shareholder these types of companies can really really pay off now we talked about how they issued some debt in the most recent quarter to about 5 billion but they paid off about over $9.2 billion that's what we're talking about when they lower interest rates it could be that you don't necessarily have to pay off it at this aggressive of a schedule maybe you lighten that back look for some other Acquisitions as this company has just has proven itself over its entire history to do a very good job integrating companies from an acquisition perspective so could be future growth opportunities going forward you get a dividend with this one they had some Sher purchases but that certainly slowed down at least the common stock in the most recent quarter things are looking pretty good from a financial perspective with broadcom now we are seeing a dip in the after hours will put up a good old fake red candle like we always do in the after hours we have broken what I would say was kind of the micro Trend or the shorter term Trend that you've really been in maybe it's slightly more than a longer a short-term Trend more of an intermediate Trend since October of 2022 you've been really steep with this one those have to give up at some point and I think we're giving those up you look at the chart of Nvidia other charts in the semiconductor industry are starting to look very similar but you've got some big consolidation areas here with broadcom in the 120s to 130 range this is where some buyers should alter step in on the stock now it'll still be relatively overextended when you zoom this out and look at kind of the full view since 2009 or so this thing has just been in a beautiful channel so it's been very very predictable so as we talk about this level at 122 130 certainly not all the way back down at the bottom of the channel when you get those moments you really got to move but you've seen over the past decade or so you've only had and this is a weekly chart that I'm on with broadcom you've only had a couple couple of weeks to move on that stock so we're looking for this one more in the middle of the channel give it some time and I think you're going to be able to get this one back in the 120s 130s that's where you start a position you're already in broadcom that's where you maybe throw a couple of more shares because financially this company is looking absolutely great I think you give them another 6 to 12 months they'll clean up some of this acquisition stuff you've got the Tailwind of the chip industry sick and tired of paying 78% gross margins to Jensen Wong and Nvidia a lot lot of them are going to be producing their own AI chips the networking side of broadcom goes without mention and obviously the software business including VMware will continue to produce steady results going forward this one still priced to Perfection but any more pullbacks probably another $10 $15 from here and it'll be your time to move on broadcom hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video be back again tomorrow the Fang stock recap show see you then good luck with your Investments
댓글 0