Markets will get used to economic messiness, says Ed Yardeni

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연준 파월 의장의 완만한 비둘기파적 발언으로 시장이 반등했다. 관세와 정책 불확실성으로 성장 둔화 우려가 있지만 소비와 임금 성장이 버티고 있어 GDP는 1~2%대 성장을 예상한다. 혼란은 장기간 이어질 수 있으나 협상으로 관세 문제가 일부 완화될 것이라고 본다. 투자자는 성급히 반등을 쫓기보다 인내하며 인프라·데이터센터 관련 기업에 기회를 찾는 것이 좋다고 조언한다. 연준이 연중 3회 인하를 반영하는 시장 가격을 재확인했다.

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01. it does take us to our talk of the tape the uncertain road ahead for stocks let's get the view of our panel today Stephanie Link High Tower's Chief investment strategist and portfolio manager Ed yardeni is the president of yardeni research young Yuma is with wealth management our own Steve Leeman is our senior economics correspondent and Steve I'm going to begin with you because I feel like we got a Fed chare bounce today and what do you think it was specifically that he said here in New York that seemed certainly seemed to calm markets I I think it was a generally uh doish take modestly doish see talked about the idea that if inflation doesn't behave well we can hold rates and if uh we have an unexpected week in the labor market we can cut rates didn't talk about raising rates but overall Scott listen to what he said here when he talks about a generally and very patient approach from the FED inflation can be volatile month to month and we do not overreact to one or two readings that are higher or lower than anticipated as we parse the incoming information we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the Outlook evolves we do not need to be in a hurry and we are well positioned to wait for greater Clarity Scott obviously there's a lot of information to come he talked about the idea of thinking about the uh um all the policy changes Administration as a whole not just one talk about the idea that tariffs are are really something that generally passed through and ultimately was was very kind of not alarmed by what's been happening you could see what happened Scott there was no change in the outlook for the FED funds future so we kind of affirmed the market pricing for three Cuts this year stay with me Steve let's bring in everybody else too I mean Steph it did not in any way sound like somebody who was all wound up about either frankly the state of the economy nor the Tariff impact yet yet um I I think we were looking for an excuse to bounce to be honest with with you we're way oversold we all know about the uncertainties we all know we're in a growth slowdown we've been talking about a growth slowdown to expect in January just simply because we don't have the fiscal Tailwinds that we had from the prior Administration obviously we're all concerned about tariffs on off on off that's kind of hard and a headache to be honest with you but we also don't know about inflation we also don't know about the Fed so the question is how low do we go in GDP we were growing 3% last year do go negative or do we go 1 and A2 2% I'm in the camp we go 1 and A2 2% because there still are a lot of Tailwinds in the economy I look at the consumer and I think lower rates helps them lower gasoline prices helps them jobs today were not horrible whisper numbers were 40 to 50,000 151 it's slowing of course we're expecting that private jobs 140,000 I was very encouraged about wages at 4% and and and so to me the consumer is hanging in that's the biggest part of our economy I'm still in the belief we have a manufacturing Renaissance as well Scott we're not we haven't even scratched the surface in terms of onshore reshore and and data centers and you know I've been buying the infrastructure data center companies because they've gotten slammed so I've been looking for opportunity I have't I had a little extra cash in the beginning of the week I am deploying it I deployed a bunch today I know you have and I'll I'll get to that in a minute but Ed yard Denny the price action today interesting um do you think it was the FED share that turned this Market yeah it was nice to have a voice of reason and column as opposed to all the uh noise to signal that we're seeing the noise to Signal ratio has really gone off the charts I think the markets are trying their best to kind of find uh an island of calm and uh reasonableness and I think that's what we got today from the from the Fed chair and I think his assessment of the economy was uh right on I think the economy is actually going to turn out to be quite resilient I mean look it over the past three years it put up with a tightening of monetary policy and didn't have a recession and now I think it's going to be challenged and tested again uh by all this uh tariff turmoil but um I think at the end of the day a lot of this going to be negotiated away the problem is negotiation should be behind closed doors where you can't hear all the noise and shouting you just want them to come out and say we've got a deal and uh so it's it's messy but I think we're all going to start getting used to the fact that it's going to continue to be messy it might and young youu that's a good point that Ed yard Denny makes this could remain messy for a while so how are investors supposed to navigate that yes definitely it's still a high uncertainty High disruption it's certainly the tariffs that are ongoing tariff concerns are ongoing but also do spending cuts and layoffs that are also uh a disruptive force in the economy now how do you navigate this I think the first thing is to be patient and not try to chase bounces when they happen we do think that uh the market will gradually stabilize but it could take some time because we have a timing mismatch between the disruptions that are taking place in the Here and Now versus when the FED might start cutting rates by mid year and some of that benefit might come into play in the near term we just have to face some of the uncertainty that remains and looking for opportunities but I I think being patient with opportunities as well is the way to go