저자: Timcast · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리의 대규모 공매도 베팅과 금리 상승으로 미국 시장 폭락 가능성을 논하지만, 확정 예측이 아닌 추측 중심의 진행이다. 마이클 버리 베팅 관련: 2023년 8월 기준 SPY·QQQ 풋옵션 약 4만 계약, 명목가치 약 16억 달러가 보고되었고, 실제 투입금은 약 2,650만 달러 수준으로 추정된다. 같은 시점 약 42% 손실로 알려졌으나 보유 여부는 불명확하다. 금리·경기 관련: 연방기금금리 5.5% 수준에서 추가 인상 가능성이 언급되며, 고금리가 기업·가계 부채 부담을 키워 경기 조정(리밸런싱)을 낳을 수 있다는 우려가 제기되었다. 케빈 오리어리는 연말 이전 혼란을 경고했다. 정치·유가 관련: 경기 침체가 2024년 선거에 영향을 줄 수 있다는 가정 아래 트럼프 재선 가능성을 이야기하며, 휘발유 가격 상승을 바이든 정부 탓으로 연결했다. 브릭스 관련: 브릭스 국가들의 자체 통화 추진과 페트로달러 경쟁이 미국에 악재가 될 수 있다는 주장이 나왔다. 대상 자산 가격 방향 예측: 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, 금, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등 한국·국내 종목과 주요 지수에 대한 구체적 1~3개월 방향 발언은 없음. 미국 지수(S&P500·나스닥) 하락 가능성은 버리 베팅을 전제로 한 가정적 언급에 그침. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 금융 전문가가 아니라고 밝히며 투자 조언을 회피했고, 재무 자문 상담을 권유했다.
다듬은 글
this past week I saw that The Big Short was trending on Netflix The Big Short of course is a film about the 2008 financial crisis it's an amazing movie it needs a bigger punch when they break down the banks who are collapsing the the lenders were collapsing but for the most part the movie is absolutely fantastic with an All-Star cast including Christian Bale Brad Pitt Stephen Carell and uh who else is in it I don't know there's a whole oh yeah Ryan goslings in it yeah he's in Barbie too awesome movie the movie talks about Michael burry as well as a few other investors who took the unprecedented move of trying to short the U.S housing market everyone thought they were crazy are you nuts everybody pays their mortgage if you're right the economy collapses how long ago was this maybe like 17 years ago maybe it was 17 16 years ago I I knew someone who told me that they had their family had given them a trust or that you know whatever it was I don't know they had a bunch of money invested in their name by their parents and I said wouldn't you rather have the money to do stuff with I mean I get it it's you know it's tens of thousands of dollars but what if the what if the market collapses and what I was told was ha ha ha if this stock goes down the country implodes so what do I care and I thought that was really interesting the mentality of this was man and this was like this must have been this might have been before no I think it was after the financial crisis but it was interesting to me that the idea was what do I care if the investment goes up I make money and if it goes down everyone's suffering anyway so whatever and that's basically the gist of what was going on nobody believed the market would crash because they were like that means that millions of people would be homeless and it would never happen before in history and sure enough it did let's get to the news Shark Tank star Kevin O'Leary warns that soaring interest rates will bring Mayhem to the economy Before Christmas really the investor said that America is headed towards a rebalance because of high inflation and interest rates the fed's interest rate is currently 5.5 percent but could rise further as chair J Powell tries to cool inflation a high interest rate pushes up the cost of debt which threatens business and households with mortgages that's right we could be heading towards the same thing which brings me to the big story from the past couple of weeks Michael burry of famed The Big Short movie Fame he made a big bet in that movie they and it's a move it's dramatization they even point out some points in the movie it's really funny like there's two characters who fight a prospectus like a pamphlet explaining a plan for shorting a housing market and they're like whoa look at this and the one guy looks up actually this didn't happen we heard about it from a friend of a friend so this is a fabrication but anyway it's a it's a great movie in the movie Michael Berry says you and I want to short the housing market his investors like you're not stop don't do it and then he says uh you can't even short the housing market how would you do it because I'm going to get a bank to create the proposal and then I'm going to buy it from them it's actually really simple I'm not a financial guy but the general idea is with uh with put options with shorting a stock again not an expert my general understanding is uh you've got three parties one guy owns a stock one guy wants to buy a stock and then there's you what you do is let me borrow the stock from you person a you then sell it to person B at its current value of fifty dollars you get all that money but you owe person a that's stuck now if the stock goes down you can buy it back but keep the profit and then give the stock back to the person you borrowed it from it's an interesting way to bet against a stock with the credit default swaps it was basically just hey I'm gonna pay you every month for insurance and if the stock the bond collapses then I get paid out that's basically the general idea well Michael burry is now making a 1.6 billion dollar bet against the U.S stock market and they're mocking him and they're laughing at him even while all the data points are coming out so I find fascinating in the movie The Big Short there is a part of the film where all these guys who bought these credit default swaps are watching defaults escalate Skyrocket mortgages are collapsing and they're like certainly these bonds must become worthless they go to the banks and the banks are like no and everything's fine we're going to keep valuing your bond very high and they're like how you're it was fraud apparently what the banks were doing they knew the bonds were collapsing the subprime mortgage loans were worthless and people were abandoning properties so instead of publicly announcing they secretly started offloading these Securities to other Banks to minimize their exposure knowing the collapse was coming evil and then it happened in the meantime Michael burry and others who bought these swaps were facing losses they were paying premiums despite them knowing what was going on Finn bald writes here's how much Michael burry is down on his 1.6 billion dollar bet against the stock market now this is different with put options you know it's more so when you have to uh when they come do or get called or whatever again not an expert on this stuff but you can hold on to these options for a long time and not realize any losses or gains so here's what they say 15 years after his famed bet against the mortgage market led to a substantial gains legendary investor Michael burry has once again set his sights on a major Financial maneuver this time he has taken a big short position against the stock market by purchasing an impressive 40 000 put options against put option contracts tied to the spdr S P 500 ETF trust and Invesco QQQ trust the disclosed data from earlier this month showcased a combined nominal value of 1.6 billion for these contracts however it seems that for now Barry's short position is at a heavy loss notably a widely followed stock Trader known as the gargavin on Twitter revealed on August 27th that bury is down 42 percent on his short bet assuming that the investor is still holding the positions it is important to note that while the combined uh no uh notional value of the two positions was whopping 1.6 billion Burris spent only a minor portion of that figure to build his new Big Short according to gergavin's estimates the fund manager likely only spent around 26.5 million to build his short position in particular he invested 18 million on 20 000 spy put options and about 8.5 million on 20 000 QQQ puts there's a possibility that bury built the two positions as Hedges aimed at softening the blow to his investment firm cyan Asset Management if the stock market declines and its long positions lose value on the other hand the puts could also indicate that bury is feeling bearish about the two Flagship index funds which are significantly impacted by large cap stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia meanwhile it should be emphasized that it remains unclear whether bury is still holding the two contracts given that there has been no update on his holding data since June 30th perhaps he sold them or perhaps doesn't matter next year anybody paying attention to the political turmoil might suspect that for political reasons stocks will collapse General Market downturn I wonder I can only say this if Michael burry is correct Donald Trump likely wins in a landslide and by Landslide let me clarify for all you Wing nuts I mean that figuratively I don't know what Landslide actually means I'll say Donald Trump wins decisively if the economy takes a major hit Trump comes out and incumbent loses if the if he's right about this Market bet then we're going to see Trump 2024 win the economy takes a hit an election year and that is apocalyptic for the car for the party currently in power Donald Trump comes out and then says remember we had excellent gas prices very low some say the best 104 a dollar forty for gas now you can blame the global lockdowns for that to be completely honest but gas was still around two something on average and then Biden took over now it's around four dollars I don't know about where it's Where It's At by you but it's around four dollars by me and we're in a more rural area typically gas is a little bit cheaper here that's already bad enough because gas prices track alongside political elections I gotta say there are fears about all of this because even Kevin O'Leary is saying there's going to be a rebalancing this year so perhaps Michael burry is correct and he can realize massive gains Before Christmas and what does that mean for all of you I have no idea I'm not a financial guy I couldn't tell you what to do I don't even know what I should do everyone's got some idea or some plan but I'd be willing to bet the guy who made what did he make like 500 million dollars that's the number they gave in the movie 489 million I got oh no no I'm sorry he made uh he made like 1.3 something billion I think the value was around 1.45 billion he he bet a 1.3 billion and then he he came out with 2.69 billion or something like that so maybe he's right and if he is maybe talk to a financial advisor about what you should be doing right now then I have to be worried about what this means for the global economy because if the crash does happen at a time when the brics nations are poised to launch their own currency and are trying to compete with the Petro dollar that's going to be their time to strike it's bad news for America my friends but I don't know I'll leave it there next segment's coming up at 1pm on this channel thanks for hanging out and I'll see you all then
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