저자: AnthonyGrasso · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론은 모건스탠리의 언더웨이트 하향(목표가 56달러)과 재고 조정 우려로 단기 부진 가능성이 있으나, 지표상 PEG 0.66, PER 6.99로 저평가. 2023년 경미한 경기침체 후 2024년 매출·이익 회복 전망. 칩스법 수혜 기대. 저자는 경미한 침체를 가정해 매수 의견과 12개월 목표가 81달러를 제시하고, 심각한 침체 시 단기 자제를 경고함.
다듬은 글
anthony grasso here bringing you financial news that you can use in this series of videos i'm going to do a go go over a few stocks in different sectors to help recession proof your portfolio in this video i'm going to do a stock analysis on micron technologies which is a large cap blend in the information technology sector i'm going to go over a summary the company its product offerings recent headline news uh analyst projections financials and given my buy hold or sell recommendation for both your short term and long-term growth investors out there and as always folks don't forget to smash that like button down below definitely helps and consider subscribing hit that notification about like here daily stalking cryptocurrency reviews and recommendations from an unbiased source so let's get right into it and as always folks this video is brought to you by weeble which is an online brokerage trading platform where you can buy stocks options etfs and cryptocurrencies if you sign up today and deposit any amount you can get up to six free stocks by using my referral link in the description down below now micron technologies uh designs manufactures and sells memory storage products worldwide now the company operates through about four different segments compute and networking business unit the second one is the mobile business unit third is the storage business unit and the fourth is the embedded business unit now provides memory and storage technologies compromises uh the dram products which are dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high speed data retrieval now the nand products that are non-volatile and rewritable semiconductor storage devices and the nor memory products now which are non-volatile rewritable semiconductor memory devices that provide fast read speeds under the micron and crucial brands as well as other private labels now the company also offers memory products uh for the cloud server enterprise client graphics networking markets as well as for smartphone and other mobile device markets now the solid state drives and component level solutions for the enterprise and cloud client and consumer storage markets other discrete storage products in the component and wafers and memory and storage products for the automotive industrial and consumer markets now it markets its products through its direct sales force channel as well through uh a channel distribution partners a micron technology was founded in 1978 and it's had a headquartered in bosey idaho now let's go ahead and look at some of the news of the company that's going on right now so morgan stanley has just downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight along with assigning shares to a 56 dollar a price target to me that's really extremely low that causes about a three percent loss in the in the other day's trading now economic concerns with impact the microns key revenue sources represented warrianson the headwind now this specific morgan stanley analyst joseph moore sees a dim outlook for micron disagreeing with the idea that the company has a more favorable framework following it con conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter ending august 31st 2022 now while micron likely guided conservatively relative to their outlook at the time the market continues to deteriorate both volume which is the primary reason for the weaker guidance and pricing more stated in the research notes in this article now further the analyst suggested that the upcoming pressures impacting mike micron is less about demand and more about inventory as consumers and all markets listened to the substance of microns commentary that shipments this quarter and next will be below production with a large micron inventory build by year end and start to release inventory buffer now thus moore noted that multiple customers are taking a more aggressive approach to inventory management in light of this commentary now i think you can call this guy kind of like a boomer bear right so going on to another article uh that went over 20 that rated 26 analysts uh all together they have a greater weight regarding bullish ratings versus bearish ratings regarding this stock and there's also another recall i came across where you know the recent senate bill that the chips act and that will definitely benefit companies in the semiconductor space chip space which is good which is great news for for micron but let's go ahead and look at some of the fundamentals of the company right now so the stock is currently trading uh last time i checked to 61.29 cents a share with a market capitalization of about 67.9 billion dollars now the company is projected to have about 31.38 billion in revenue for the fiscal year of 2022 with earnings coming out to be 8.9 roughly now the revenue projections are the slightly decrease over the next year in 2023 to be around 30.2 billion dollars of revenue by the end of fiscal year 2023 with earnings coming out to be around 7.1 billion dollars now but you have to look at the revenues going into 2024.
they're projected to drastically increase to around 36.2 billion dollars which is five billion more per year right now then and and they're going to have earnings of roughly 11.41 billion now these projections are priced in the possibility of a mild recession going into 2023 and then coming back strong on the other side of it in 2024.
the stock is currently trading 9.5 percent below the estimate fair value of the stock right now so the earnings are forecast to go about 6.7 per year on average and the earnings grew about 140 over the past year alone now let's go ahead and look at some of the evaluation analysis profitability analysis growth rates and financial strength of this company right now so looking at the valuation analysis that i was looking at micron is in the semiconductors and semiconductor equipment industry and has positive earnings therefore the priced earnings growth peg and the pe price to earnings ratios the most appropriate valuation measures now the price the book ratio is excluded because it most likely underestimates the company's book value by overlooking you know hidden assets such as intellectual property and the price of sales ratio is also not as meaningful as the p or p e or the peg ratio due to the company's positive earnings so micron seems valued at a discount right now with the peg value at .66 times one of the lowest in the semiconductors industry which is supported by the p e ratio of 6.99 times and that is also one of the lowest in the industry now looking at the profitability analysis it's one of the micron is one of the more profitable companies in the semiconductor space with a net margin of around thirty point five four percent now it's net margin and operating margins are both among the strongest of any of its peers while its gross margin is in line with the industry medium and looking at the growth coming up now the earnings growth that at micron did outpace revenue growth over the past tr uh trailing 12 months this is a trend that is not sustainable profits are to continue to grow this rate however the result was better than the average company in the semiconductor space and as i said before it's definitely going to stagnate a little bit until 2023 and then come out on the other end in 2024 pretty strong and that's the current projection now looking at the financial strength analysis uh micron's death total capital ratio of 12.38 percent is in line with the semiconductors and semiconductor equipment industries norm with the interest coverage ratio of 250 times and a quick ratio of around 2.44 times the company should be able to comfortably uh recover recoup its debt so let me bring it back here so what do the analysts say specifically regarding micron so the uh the the current analysts out there have a moderate buyer recommendation at the moment and the average price target of micron technologies over the next 12 months is around and eighteen cents a share with a high of 165 dollars a share and a low estimate of a hundred or fifty dollars now going over a few of the analyst reports that came across the ford equity research report has a hold recommendation on micron it's a result of their systematic analysis of the three basic characteristics that they look at they look at the earnings strength a relative valuation and recent stock price movements they said the company has generated a negative trend in earnings per share over the past five quarters however while recent estimates for the company have been lowered by analysts micron has posted better than expected results and they have based on operating's earnings the company is undervalued when compared to all the other companies they cover and that is true micron is a very undervalued company at this moment in time now the share price change of the past year indicates that micron will perform poorly over the near term now going to another report i was looking at the cfra report states that there's a buy recommendation on micron technology now thereby uh reflects their view of the valuation of the memory content growth story so despite a well-known inventory correction taking place that we saw in that morgan stanley article we like growth prospects led by micron's strategic portfolio mitigation towards more advanced and higher value products the ddr5 high density server modules and solid state drives now the cfra report said they think that uh micron is making a good progress towards a technology perspective and they have the one alpha the 1z dram nodes and the 176 layer and nand d drive volume now while we see more cash return to investors we see the transition to ddr5 ramping in fiscal year 2022 and like greater emphasis on computer express link the cxl memory products which should support higher return on investment and shareholder value now long term higher volume cost per bit reductions and an improving mix of specialty dram and higher end nand chips will support margins now the risk to their analysis is lower than expected sales of computers and consumer products electronic products faster than expected capacity expansion in the memory industry and less than anticipated cost cuts so am i a buy hold or cell recommendation on micron technologies here are my thoughts first you have to look at what kind of recession do you believe we're heading into right now for the specific consumer electronic market you know will it be a mild recession or severe recession now right now it looks like it's going to be a mild recession some of the decline in consumer spending is due to the inflation tax on consumers at this moment in time now americans right now are cutting back on expenses or and basically reducing their discretionary spending uh to afford higher prices on necessity items so you're not going to be spending money on that two thousand dollar ipad if you need to actually get groceries it also seems that americans are changing their minds about buying new homes and cars at this moment of time now that being said our job market is still extremely strong so now micron uh has taken a big hit since april with a small bounce back in july on the news of that uh of the of the bill that's going to be coming up now i believe we're heading into a milder session right now and i think the market is already pricing into the anticipation of a deeper recession in the stock price of micron at this moment in time now this is our this stock has already taken the hit so to speak now the stock is trading well below discount right now based on the peg and p e ratios so based on all of that i am a buy recommendation on micron with a 12 month price target of 81 dollars a share i believe that micron technologies can weather this economic storm income on top now there are cautions to my recommendation though if we go into a severe recession you might want to pull back in the short term from buying micron technologies because you know that anything having to do with tech in a deep recession is going to get crushed but what are your thoughts do you think we're going to have a mild recession or do you think it's going to spiral out of control into a deep recession please leave your comments down below and as always folks don't forget to smash that like button down below definitely helps and consider subscribing hit that notification bell if you like your daily stock reviews and recommendations from on by source and in the next videos folks we're going to be doing more stocks on how to recession proof your portfolio and the potential stocks the the the top stocks that i think you should look at going into the near future until the next video folks ciao you
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