저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금·은·백금 등 귀금속 강세 지속을 전제로, 금광주가 하락 시 빨리 회복할 것이며 1년 강세장이 남았다고 주장. 익절은 실수라고 강조. 비트코인은 금과 달리 약세로 붕괴 가능성을 언급. 과열 신호(센티먼트) 경고와 과거 귀금속 조정(금 34%, 은·백금 60~70%) 사례를 들며 조정 위험도 함께 언급. 시장은 연말 랠리 시즌성 관점에서 긍정적. 트레이딩 포지션 진입 및 뉴스레터 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
I mean, I think the bigger risk is missing out on the rest of this bull market, which is going to last for quite some time. Um, so yeah, I mean, and I also think that the risk is going to be that there are going to be a lot of people that are going to uh take profits too soon. They're going to say, "Oh, I've doubled my money, or I've tripled my money.
Let me get out." And we've got some pretty pretty big moves in the markets. uh gold starting to break out and run higher. We had silver post some pretty big gains. Silver has run all the way up, hit our 20% target uh yesterday, which was pretty exciting. And um if we take a look at platinum and platium, just insane moves here on on platinum up like almost, you know, 10%, it just continues to push higher.
And we've got platium up about half percent this morning. Uh platinum's up about uh 2%, 2 and a half% this morning. But we got some pretty big moves going on in this space. I think any decline like the one we had an hour ago, you know, is a great buying opportunity. I I don't expect there to be that big a decline because I don't think the markets are going to make it that easy for people to buy because I think prices are still much too low.
And I think at this point you have a lot of investors who want to get into this market. And so there's too much buying beneath the market for the market to to correct that substantially. I think there will be sharp sell-offs to kind of get the day traders who are trying to be cute and just maybe come into the market with some leverage positions intraday.
I I think you know they still have to have risk there. It can't be just like one-sided can't lose. So, keeping the speculators honest, I think you're going to see uh plenty of sharp declines like we had today, but not major uh declines. So, I think you've really got to get into this market to the extent that we do see sell-offs.
I I expect them to bounce back very quickly. You know, if we go into a major stock market meltdown where stock markets are down, you know, 20, 30, 40, 50%. Yeah, you know, gold stocks could get dragged down, uh, but I don't think they'll go down as much and I think they'll come back much quicker. And a lot of it depends on what gold does.
I mean, if we see a major drop in the stock market and we also see a drop in gold, okay, then the gold mining stocks are going to get hit. But if we see a a surge in the price of gold, if the money that's leaving the stock market goes into the gold market instead of the treasury market, it'd be hard to imagine, you know, gold moving up substantially and the gold stocks ignoring that and going down.
You would think that they would they would rise as well. If equity markets were to experience a true meltdown, down 20, 30, or even 40%, almost nothing would be spared in the initial wave. Gold mining stocks could be dragged lower as liquidity evaporates. However, history suggests they often fall less and recover faster, especially if capital rotates into safe havens.
The key variable is gold itself. If money fleeing equities moves into gold rather than government bonds, it becomes difficult to imagine gold miners declining for long. Rising bullion prices tend to re-anchor valuations and accelerate recoveries across the sector. I mean, I think the bigger risk is missing out on the rest of this bull market, which is going to last for quite some time.
Um, so yeah, I mean, and I also think that the risk is going to be that there are going to be a lot of people that are going to uh take profits too soon. They're going to say, "Oh, I've doubled my money or I've tripled my money. Let me get out." And you know, look, you know, selling some taking some of your profits off the table.
I suppose I can't necessarily uh argue with that as a riskmanagement strategy. Uh but I think that we have a long way to go. And so I think that, you know, people that think, okay, it's time to cash out and look for something else. I think that that's going to be the mistake that people make, thinking that it's a top, thinking that, you know, they've made enough money and they want to they want to get out because I think we're starting from such a low level.
you know, even if you know, stocks double or triple, you got to look at where they moved from, uh, you know, and where they, you know, how low they actually were, uh, you know, relative to, you know, pasts and and where they're likely to go because I think earnings are going to explode for these companies.
And so I think uh the valuations, you know, are way too low that the the market is not factoring in and crediting these companies for what they're likely to earn in the future. Not just from today's gold prices and silver prices, but from the gold and silver prices that we're going to have in the future.
One of the biggest mistakes investors make in long bull markets is exiting too soon. Doubling or tripling an investment feels like success, but context matters. Many precious metal stocks are rebounding from historically depressed levels. Even after strong gains, valuations often remain well below prior cycles.
Earnings potential is expanding, not shrinking, driven by higher metal prices and tighter supply dynamics. While partial profit taking can be sensible, fully abandoning positions because gains feel large, often leads to regret. The larger risk isn't volatility, it's missing the compounding phase of the cycle.
I mean, I don't know. I mean, they they barely even report on it, let alone pump it. You know, even today, I was watching CNBC this morning, and this is when gold is up like 60 bucks. Silver's, you know, still at record territory, you know, you know, up above 5430 or something or 6430. And they and as they're going into a break, they say, "Oh, let's take a look at the markets.
Oh, the NASDAQ." And they talked about the NASDAQ. Let's look at Bitcoin. and that was it. You know, they didn't even bother with the precious metals. And in fact, I was watching yesterday and they said, "Come up, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and and whether or not we're going to see a rebound next year, but they hadn't even mentioned gold or silver yet cuz I was waiting for that." And gold and silver, they don't have to talk about a rebound.
We're at record highs. So, they're not even barely reporting on it. Yeah, once in a while they do mention a gold or silver stock or but you know, but they don't really encourage anybody to buy into it. They just kind of mention that it's gone up. Uh they're still trying to um you know, direct their audience to Bitcoin.
So, I think before CNBC even remotely starts to advocate for gold or silver or have guests like me that come on, I never come on that network, but if they have people that are real, you know, gold people, it's probably not going to be till after all the air comes out of the crypto bubble and the crypto community no longer can afford to advertise on CNBC because, you know, right now they're trying to uh, you know, pander to their advertisers and uh, and I and I think the crypto advertisers ers don't want anybody uh focusing attention on gold because they're trying to get people to buy Bitcoin instead of gold.
Uh and I think this what's happening right now in gold should be very problematic to the Bitcoin pumpers because why isn't Bitcoin going up? If it's digital gold and if it's supposed to be better than gold, if gold is going way up, then Bitcoin should be going up even more. But instead, it's down as gold's going up.
So, they got no explanation for this other than, well, gold moves first and Bitcoin moves second. Well, who says why? I mean, why wouldn't it already be moving? If Bitcoin is going to move on the rate cuts and the return to QE, why isn't it moving now, right? I mean, it doesn't make any sense that it just waits for gold to stop going up and then Bitcoin all of a sudden magically starts going up.
It doesn't make any sense that that would happen. Maybe that happened a few times in the past, but that might be more of a coincidence than anything else. Um, I I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that every time gold goes up, Bitcoin must go up later and must go up more. You know, I I think it could just come crashing down.
In fact, the fact that it's not rallying is a good sign that it's about to go way down. Despite record setting moves in gold and silver, mainstream financial media remains largely silent. coverage often prioritizes tech stocks and cryptocurrencies even when precious metals are quietly outperforming.
This imbalance matters. If Bitcoin were truly digital gold, it should be rising alongside physical gold. Yet, it isn't. Instead, gold is advancing while Bitcoin struggles. Explanations that Bitcoin moves later lack convincing logic. Markets don't wait politely for narratives to catch up. When an asset fails to respond to conditions that should benefit it, that weakness often signals deeper structural issues rather than temporary lag.
And we've got some pretty pretty big moves in the markets. Uh gold starting to break out and run higher. We had silver post some pretty big gains. Silver has run all the way up, hit our 20% target uh yesterday, which was pretty exciting. And um if we take a look at platinum and platium, just insane moves here on on platinum up like almost, you know, 10%, it just continues to push higher.
And we've got platium up about half percent this morning. Uh platinum is up about uh 2% 2 and a half% this morning. But we've got some pretty big moves going on in this space. Uh if we go back and take a look at the equities market, so money was flowing into both equities and precious metals. Today, precious metals are are relatively flat.
We've got them the indices kind of mixed. Uh the S&P 500 here on the verge of breaking out to some new all-time highs. We have the NASDAQ, if we take a look here, it's it isn't quite near the highs. It's continuing to struggle. The Magnificent 7 have definitely pulled things down. We've seen a little profit taking in some of these growth stocks.
Uh but overall, this starting to come to life. If we actually take a look at the Magnificent 7, we have uh it's starting to really pick up speed and really starting to pop uh yesterday, which could start to carry over into the next couple of trading sessions before the end of the year. We could see something like this where it starts to gap and run and get that rest of that holiday rally.
Now, when we go and take a look at the markets, uh from a seasonality standpoint, December, uh for the S&P 500 and for the NASDAQ, little bit of a pullback here. we are and we've seen the market more or less bottom out uh this week over the last couple of trade sessions and now it's starting to potentially have that push higher and gold is in the same boat.
It's usually has a little bit of weakness in the beginning of December and then we start to rally and push higher into the end of the year. So that's kind of where we're at in the markets. Now yesterday we did enter a new position. If you're on our newsletter, our free newsletter, you would know about this.
So, you could you take advantage of it. If you go to our website and scroll down a little bit, you can join this free newsletter so you're up to speed whenever we have a new trade issued. And of course, we've been hitting some some we've hit three targets with our silver trade or SLV trade. And um anyways, if you want to be up to speed on things, make sure you get on our free email list to be up to speed.
Recent months have delivered powerful moves across silver, platinum, and palladium alongside steady gains in gold. This broad participation excites investors, but it also reveals shifting sentiment. Historically, faster moving metals and miners often peak before gold itself. Speculative capital chases volatility first, then eventually rotates back to the most stable store of value.
Gold tends to lag emotionally, but leads strategically. When enthusiasm clusters around silver and miners, it can mark a later stage of the cycle. That doesn't end the bull market, but it does signal the need for discipline and awareness to uh not miss out. Now, if we take a look at the rest of the markets, we do have uh Bitcoin.
Everything is moving up, but Bitcoin um Bitcoin is really just floundering. If we zoom out the big picture of Bitcoin, there's potential that we're having a cycle low. Now, with that being said, the chart looks terrible. It doesn't look very good. It was giving this broadening megaphone formation we talked about way back over here.
I said, "Don't touch it. Be very aware that this is a bearish pattern. It has broken down and now it's putting in what looks to be either a bare flag and it's going to go a whole lot lower, or it is going to try to carve out a bottom, but it needs to do a ton of work before it can build a new super launch pad to go a whole lot higher." [snorts] Uh the fact that stocks are going up, gold is going up, and Bitcoin is going down is a sign that it's just it's lost its shine.
I think uh anybody who I mean I think a lot of gold bugs moved into crypto for a while, but now everybody's like, "Forget it. Forget crypto. Let's just focus on precious metals again." And that's where everybody's at. Now, if we go and we take a look at um this is something that's really interesting, and I I've covered this many times before um with our our paid subscribers.
If we go back and we take a look at gold, silver, platinum, platium. Let's get Well, we can leave the miners. But what I want to show here is the yellow line at the top is gold. And gold topped out over here in mid or kind of uh uh July 20 July August of 2011. And what you're going to notice is gold miners actually topped out much much sooner.
They did push to a nominal new high, but nothing too significant. Silver topped out six months before gold did. We saw platinum also more or less top out around the same time as silver, but and it really just traded sideways with some pretty big pullbacks percentage-wise along the way. And we saw platium actually top out um months and months before gold did.
And so we're in this feeding frenzy right now where everyone is piling into all of these plays. And that is usually not a good sign. It's people looking for the faster moving metals. It's it's just a there's nothing wrong with it. There's big returns to to chase these because they could still have some big moves, but it's a sign of greed.
Market sentiment is a powerful early warning system. When optimism becomes crowded and criticism disappears, risk quietly increases. Precious metals have seen this pattern before. Strong rallies followed by sharp pullbacks that erase months of gains. That doesn't negate the long-term thesis, but it does punish emotional positioning.
Meanwhile, seasonality favors year-end stabilization and rallies across both equities and metals, a pattern that has repeated for decades. The key is flexibility, not prediction. Markets don't offer certainty, only probabilities. Successful investors manage exposure, follow price action, and stay prepared for multiple outcomes, not just the one they hope for.
People move into the faster moving stuff, miners, silver, platinum, platium, when they start to run, and they forget about gold. And then eventually everybody get uh these other metals will stall out and then people start to move in and gold continues to soar and move higher. And so that's the early warning sign and that's kind of where we're at right now.
We got everybody piling into anything metals and miners and gold has been really just slowly kind of falling under the radar just starting to break out. So that's what we need to be aware of. the sentiment sentiment analysis is very very powerful in allowing us to know when big major tops are starting to take place and um it means we could see the precious metals start to run out of steam which is not what anybody wants to hear and of course uh uh usually when everybody is against a move everybody's long and excited about metals you know that's when you get the most push back right nobody wants to hear anything negative on it and this is something we've been talking about for months or actually for a couple years waiting for this to unfold.
It's finally starting to unfold. The sentiment of people piling into silver and miners and all of that first. So, this isn't any surprise. This is something we we know to watch for and we know what it means generally and how the markets are going to react. And most people get caught off guard holding a ton of gold and silver and metals only to watch a ton of it get wiped out and give it back after you after these type of moves.
We have seen pretty much gold pull back 34%, silver, platinum, platium pulling back 60 70%. And um not saying they're going to pull back that much, but even a 20 or 50% pullback or 30% pullback will be enough to scar a lot of people for a long time. The markets have been doing pretty much what we've been expecting.
The markets are are stabilizing. They're moving up into the end of the year for the holiday rally. We we needed this little this little shake out here. If we look, we were looking for this shake out. this pullback in the market to run all of these little stops. We talked about that back over here when the market was trading sideways.
They said, "Listen, the market is going to want to sell off a percent and a half or two or um down below these lows to try and run all of these little pivot lows where people have stops." We saw that the market got oversold. We saw panic selling and then boom, uh the market starts to rally and now we're pushing up testing all-time highs.
So the stock market's doing exactly what we think have been expecting what the charts have been telling us. I know a lot of people have been going through the roller coaster ride through this phase right here, this gap up all the way through over here and over here. People panic. They listen to the news.
They listen to all kinds of people's opinions who really are just based on, you know, they have a bias. I don't have a bias in the market. We just follow price action and I tell you what it can and can't do every time or what it what it could do and we have a game plan for each direction. And I hear that all the time.
People are always like, "Well, you didn't really tell us much. You said it could go higher. It could go lower." Uh, if you listen and read in between the lines and follow along, it can always go in either direction. And I know a lot of people out there, they they just want an answer. Do I buy it? Do I sell it?
Where's it going? Just tell me where it's going. Nobody knows. That's why we navigate it and we manage positions. And again, if you want to copy our trades, um, like our accounts are, you know, are pushing up to all-time highs. markets are moving. We're we're we're in in all kinds of different trades right now. Uh it's very exciting.
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