저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 CPI(전월비 0.6%, 연환산 7.4%)와 근원 CPI(0.7%)가 예상보다 크게 높았고, PPI(1.3%, 연환산 17%)와 수입·수출물가도 급등했다. 시장은 나쁜 물가를 연준의 강경 대응 신호로 받아들여 금·은을 매도했으나, 발행자는 연준이 이미 패배했고 대차대조표 확대·M2 증가로 실제로는 비둘기파라고 주장한다. 물가 상승이 계속되며 2027·2028년 CPI 7% 이상을 예상하고, 금·은 적극 매수를 권한다.
다듬은 글
Year-over-year, they expected producer prices to increase by 5.6%. Instead, they grew by 6.3%. The core index was expected to increase by 0.3%, but it increased by 0.7% for the month. If you analyze this, it comes out to be 9%. 9% core inflation. Inflation is getting out of control. And the Fed missed the moment.
Actually, Waller gave a speech, I think last night or this morning, that got everyone excited because, despite all these bad inflation numbers, he didn't express any concern in the speech that this meant the Fed needed to take more aggressive action ; This has led to a drop in expectations of a rate hike in October before the elections from 40-45% to around 15%, because apparently it doesn't matter at all .
The week ended with a triumvirate of bad news about inflation. On Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. All the news was worse than expected, meaning inflation turned out to be higher. Ironically , as has been the case for many months now, all this bad news about inflation became bad news for gold and silver in the eyes of traders, because they were selling gold and silver.
And again, the reason is that they perceive worse-than- expected inflation news as a sign that the Fed will have to act tougher. It will have to resort to radical measures to combat inflation. It will have to significantly raise rates and possibly reduce its balance sheet. It is this fight against inflation that worries traders, and that is why they are selling gold.
But if they understood that worse inflation numbers don't mean the Fed will fight harder, they mean the Fed has already lost. Inflation won. Here's what the numbers show you. The market still doesn't understand that even if the Fed raises rates two or three more times, it doesn't mean anything. Inflation is accelerating much faster than the Fed is raising rates.
Meanwhile, the Fed, especially Kevin Warsh, is just talking. Everyone considers him a tough fighter against inflation. He is Paul Walker in a new incarnation. This is all nonsense. He has been heading the Fed for 5 months. And what did he do in those 5 months ? Raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Big deal. This doesn't mean anything. And he probably won't even raise them another 25 basis points until December. So what? And look at the balance. The Fed's balance sheet is larger today than it was 5 months ago when he became Fed Chairman. And the M2 money supply has grown by almost 6% year-on-year over the past 5 months.
These are not the actions of an inflation fighter, nor the actions of a "hawk." These are the actions of a "dove." Despite public rhetoric portraying the Federal Reserve leadership as staunch hawks, actual policy decisions are demonstrating an increasingly dovish trajectory. The central bank's actions, including moderate rate adjustments, continued balance sheet expansion, and M2 money supply growth of almost 6%, do not match aggressive anti-inflationary statements.
Interest rate increases continue to lag behind the acceleration in price growth, which reduces real returns in financial markets. Moreover, the recent expansion of the Fed's balance sheet directly contradicts official mandates to combat inflation. As markets gradually realize that central bank interventions are not severe enough to contain the rapid rise in prices, institutional confidence in paper currency is weakening, laying the groundwork for a significant long-term revision in commodity and precious metals valuations.
So, Varsh is a "dove " in a "hawk" form. Forget what he says, look at what he does. And markets will soon realize that he is all talk and nothing action when it comes to fighting inflation. But let's look at the terrible numbers we got that should have pushed gold up hundreds of dollars an ounce this week if traders really understood inflation, interest rates, bond yields, and the Fed.
But, fortunately for us, they don't understand this. They do n't understand anything. And that means Schiff Gold customers get another opportunity to buy more gold and silver. Gold fell half a percent in a week. Uh, it closed at around 2145, although it should have gone up. This is good news. You can buy more gold at a lower price because traders don't understand what's going to happen.
Silver fell even more, so you got an even bigger gift. Silver ended the week down about 3%, closing around $26.85. In fact, within a week the price even dropped below $25 with something. This is a great buy. Get silver below $30, especially given all the positive news that came out this week that traders are not properly aware of.
I'll start, actually, with the mildest of the bad reports that came out on Wednesday, and I've already discussed this on my main podcast, but I'll mention it again. And this is the CPI. These are all September figures. So, the September CPI increased by 0.6%. This is a significant movement in 1 month.
But, you know, what's even more significant is in annual terms. When you multiply that by 12, that's an annual rate of 7.4%. This is significant inflation. But they never annualize monthly figures , as they do with GDP. When they report GDP , they always convert it to an annual figure. So, if quarterly growth was half a percent, they report 2% GDP growth.
They multiply by four. So why don't they multiply the monthly inflation rates by 12? September economic reports confirmed rising pressure on consumer prices: the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in the month, corresponding to an annual rate of 7.4%. The core CPI also exceeded analysts' forecasts, indicating a systemic acceleration in prices for basic goods and services.
Standard economic reports often focus on annual monthly metrics or year-over- year underlying indicators, obscuring the true cumulative impact on purchasing power. CPI trends since the beginning of the year demonstrate that inflationary pressures exceed levels observed in previous financial cycles. As structural budget deficits persist alongside increased central bank liquidity, annual consumer inflation rates need to be revised upwards , which exacerbates the long-term structural burden on the entire real economy.
Because they want the number to look as small as possible. So you don't think, "Oh, it's only 0.6%." "It's not that bad." Yes, but that's in one month. If this happens every month for a year, it would be 7.4%. The annual core inflation rate was 3.7%. However, excluding food and energy, the figure was higher than expected, as other bad news was forecast.
The core figure rose 0.3%, 50% more than expected, and the annual core figure rose 2.6%. And that was higher than the projected 2.5%. Gold and silver fell sharply in price on this news. As is the bond market. Although the bond market later recovered , yields, in my opinion , reached new highs due to this bad news about inflation.
But, you know, when you hear Republicans talking about inflation now, they try to prove that Trump has significantly reduced the inflation rate. They point out, "Oh, under Biden it was 9.1%, and under Trump it's only 3% now." They say that Trump curbed inflation, and all the problems were inherited from Biden.
So we're doing a great job. This is all nonsense. Inflation is getting worse under Trump, not better. As of the first 9 months of 2026, the CPI increased by 4%. There are still 3 months left until the end of the year . I am sure that inflation will be 5% for the whole year. But even if we take the 4% we have now, for the entire year of 2024, Biden's last year in office, the CPI grew by 2.9% over all 12 months.
It is already 4%, and there are still 3 months ahead. The year before, in 2023 , inflation for the whole year was 3.4%. Now we have a higher rate. So, inflation in just the first 9 months of this year is already worse than it was in the entire fourth year of Biden's presidency and his entire third year.
So how can you say that this is considered a decrease in inflation if it is higher now than it was in 2024 or 2023? Right now it is still not higher than it was in 2022, when it was 6.5%, or in 2021, when it was 7%, but it will happen. Inflation rates at the initial stages of production are clear leading indicators for the consumer market, as business costs are inevitably passed on to final retail prices.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.3% in one month, almost three times higher than forecasts, and this implies an annual producer inflation rate of 17 %; Producers' core indicators similarly reached an annual level of 9%, indicating a widespread increase in wholesale prices in production and distribution networks.
Despite these worrying indicators, official monetary policy statements remain largely subdued , with expectations of rate hikes falling sharply following the speeches by Central Bank officials. This widening gap between producer spending growth and passive monetary policy signals further structural acceleration in future consumer price indices.
I believe that next year, 2027, the CPI could grow by more than 7%, and it could grow by more than 7% again in 2028. When Biden was president, the highest CPI was in his first year. Every year while he was president, the CPI got lower. With Trump, everything will be the opposite. Every year of Trump's presidency, the CPI will worsen.
I'm not saying Biden was a great president. No, he wasn't like that. He was a terrible president and his policies were inflationary. But so is Trump's policy. However, if you just look at the numbers under Biden, we had 4 years of declining inflation. Under Trump, we will have 4 years of rising inflation, and I am sure that on average over all 4 years of Trump, the CPI will increase more than under Biden.
And ironically, the reason Biden's first year was the worst, 7%, is because of the monetary and fiscal policies implemented under Trump in 2020. Trump sowed the seeds of that spike in consumer prices with his fiscal policies and the monetary policies pursued by the Fed while Trump was in office. So, Biden inherited this serious problem from Trump.
Trump constantly talks about inflation, which he allegedly inherited from Biden. Well, Biden inherited it from him. I'm not saying that Biden hasn't added to the problems that will manifest themselves during Trump's tenure. Much of the inflation we will experience over the next few years can be attributed to Biden's policies.
But Trump made them worse with his " big wonderful" bill. And in fact, after the midterm elections, when Republicans are likely to lose the House and Senate, budget deficits will become even larger. The reckless bills passed by the Democratic Congress will cause even more inflation than those passed by the Republicans, and Trump will sign them anyway .
This will not be a political stalemate. Trump will sign them. In fact, the 2024 election was entirely focused on inflation, the cost of living, and the affordability crisis. The 2028 elections will be about the same thing , only things will be even worse. Inflation will be a much bigger problem in 2028 than in 2024.
In 2028, we will have a much more serious affordability crisis than we had in 2024. All elections will be about: whose fault is it? Who will get charged? Of course, Republicans. Well, they'll probably blame Biden anyway, right? You blame Biden for everything. But they will also blame the Democratic Congress.
Unlike consumer price index calculations, which use hedonic quality adjustments and commodity substitution models , trade price indices offer unadjusted measures of actual transaction costs . The latest trade data showed significant growth: import prices rose by 1.1% month-on-month, representing an annual rate of 14%, and annual import price growth reached 8.1%.
Export prices showed even faster dynamics, jumping 2.2% in one month and exceeding the annual inflation target in just 30 days. Given the economy's heavy dependence on imported industrial goods and raw materials, rising import prices directly increase domestic production costs, making the central bank's short-term targets increasingly unattainable under the current policy framework.
And the Republicans will say, "Look, you see, they elected Democrats, and look what happened to inflation. It skyrocketed . I told you so." Trump will say, "I warned you not to vote for Democrats. It's all their fault." Isn't that right ? So, Republicans will try to blame everything on the Democratic Congress.
But Democrats, of course, will blame everything on Trump. And so it will turn into a game of mutual accusations. Everyone will point the finger at the other and at the other party. And the public will have to draw conclusions. But, judging from experience, the party that controls the White House is usually blamed.
That's why Republicans will remain extreme, and that's why I believe Democrats will win a complete victory in 2028, including the radical left democratic socialists and Congress. And you should actively buy gold and silver until investors understand what this means. So, the day after the CPI was released, and I have n't talked about it yet because I was recording another podcast on Wednesday.
This happened on Thursday. We got the producer price index (PPI). And if people thought the CPI was bad, the PPI turned out to be much worse. What's even worse about the PPI being so high is that it is a leading indicator for the CPI. Because before consumer prices rise, producer prices rise. Such a chain.
Businesses have rising costs and prices, and then they pass this on to the consumer. So if you want to know what will happen to consumer prices in the future, look at producer prices today. And when you look at manufacturers' prices, the picture is unattractive. So, the consensus forecast predicted a 0.5% increase in producer prices.
And that would be a little more than 0.4% in the previous month. Instead, they grew by 1.3% per month . This is almost three times more than analysts expected. And again , if you calculate it on an annualized basis, it's 17%. Producer prices rose in September with an annual inflation rate of 17%. Does this look like the Fed is winning the battle against inflation?
It seems that inflation has crushed the Fed. Prolonged fiscal spending, spending expansion laws, and rising budget deficits continue to inject structural inflation into the global economy. Historical political cycles show that bipartisan fiscal commitments rarely curb government spending trends, leading to rising national debt regardless of who controls Congress.
As affordability issues intensify, market focus inevitably shifts toward long-term currency depreciation and preserving purchasing power. As monetary expansion continues to outpace government bond yields and nominal interest rates, physical reserves of wealth, including physical gold and silver, remain vital hedges against complex currency devaluations and ongoing macroeconomic instability.
Year-over-year, they expected producer prices to increase by 5.6%. Instead, they grew by 6.3%. The core indicator was expected to increase by 0.3%, but increased by 0.7% per month. If we extrapolate this to a year, we get 9% core inflation? Inflation is getting out of control. And the Fed is asleep at its post .
In fact, Bostick gave a speech, I think last night or this morning, that got everyone excited because, despite these bad inflation numbers, he didn't express any concern about them or that the Fed should be more aggressive in his speech. This led to a drop in expectations of a rate increase in October before the elections from 40-45% to around 15%, because, apparently, it doesn't matter at all .
By the way, I was watching CNBC when they were covering these bad numbers. They knew the CPI numbers, they knew the PPI numbers, and they said that this was problematic for the Fed because it showed that inflation was not coming down as quickly as they expected. What do you mean by " not decreasing as fast as expected" ?
It is not decreasing at all . Inflation is rising. Inflation is accelerating. They simply embellish reality. They act like, "Well, the only problem is it's going down slower." It is not decreasing at all . It is growing. This is a much bigger problem. The Fed believed that inflation would trend downward.
Instead, it is growing rapidly. In fact, the worst numbers we got this week came out today. They left on Friday. And this is perhaps the most reliable of the indicators. These are import and export prices. And the reason I call them the most reliable is because they are unadjusted. There is no substitution.
There are no hedonic adjustments. These are just actual prices. Therefore, import prices were expected to increase by 0.6%. Instead, they grew by 1.1% per month . In annualized terms, this is 14% annual inflation. Year- over-year, import prices actually increased by 8.1%. We buy a lot of imported goods in this country.
Almost everything we buy in goods is imported, and 8.1% is not at all like 2%. That's not even close to the overall consumer price index year over year, which seems to have been around 3.7. But look at export prices. Export prices were expected to increase by 0.9%. Instead, they grew by 2.2% in 1 month.
This is a whole year's inflation target in 1 month, even more. The Fed aims for inflation of 2% per year, and in export prices it was 10% higher, that is, 2.2% per month, in one month.
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