저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 긴축이 경기침체를 악화시키지만 암호화폐 시장의 바닥은 가까워졌고 비관론은 곧 틀릴 수 있다. 연준 긴축 비판: 연준은 자신의 유산을 더 걱정하며 인플레이션 통제에 집착해 큰 실수를 하고 있다. 기준금리를 3개월 만에 0.25%에서 1.75%로 7배 올려 경제에 충격을 줬고, 미국 경제는 이미 침체 상태라고 본다. 나쁜 뉴스가 오히려 좋은 뉴스로 작용하는 약세장 특성이 나타나고 있다. 신용시장 우려: CDX 지수 CDS 스프레드가 연초 50에서 100으로 2배 올랐고, JP모건 CDS는 48에서 102로 올라 시장 평균보다 크게 상승했다. 다만 체계적 위험이 현실화될 가능성은 낮다고 본다. 아르케고스 붕괴 이후 리스크 관리자들이 과도한 레버리지를 점검하고 있기 때문이다. 암호화폐 상황: 비트코인은 11월 고점 69,000달러에서 약 19,500달러로 하락했다. 200주 이동평균(약 22,500달러) 아래에 있어 저항선으로 바뀔 우려가 있다. 루나·테라 실패 이후 셀시우스, 보이저, 쓰리에로우즈 캐피털 등이 무너졌고 블록파이는 펀딩 가치가 30억달러에서 크게 낮아져 FTX 인수 얘기가 나온다. 시장 전망: 붕괴 규모가 점점 작아지고 있고 캐나다 렌딩 플랫폼 등 업계 신뢰 있는 참여자들이 인수에 관심을 보여 체계적 위험이 줄고 있다고 본다. 기술적 지지선이 1만1,000~1만3,000달러 부근에 있다는 시각도 언급했다. 비트코인 월봉은 중립에서 긍정적이며 항복 신호를 조금 더 기다리는 중이다. 향후 금리 전망: 연준이 금리를 다시 올리면 75bp는 아니고 25~50bp 정도일 것이며, 그 역시 과도할 수 있다고 본다. 바닥은 이미 지났을 가능성이 크고, 알고리즘 매매가 추세를 쫓다 멈추는 시점이 가까워져 지난 1년간 약세에 베팅한 쪽이 반대편에 설 것이라고 전망했다. 암호화폐는 투명성과 과담보 구조 덕분에 장기적으로 전통금융보다 신뢰를 얻을 것이라고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
the bad news is that the fed has become extremely aggressive and hawkish the good news is that we are beginning to get data that is confirming that the economy the u.s economy is in recession i i did a tweet thread last weekend and basically concluding that the fed right now is much more worried about its own legacy than it is about the economy it is so afraid that it has let the inflate inflation genie out of the bottle and that it won't be able to get it back uh that it is in unison basically going out there and saying we are going to tighten we have an unconditional commitment to two percent inflation using the cpi as its guide the fed is making a big mistake there's already a lot of deflation in the economy the fed has shocked the system we have gone from 0.25 in the fed funds rate to 1.75 percent in the span of three months that's a seven-fold increase we've never seen that before i think the fed has panicked and it's causing the the the economy the economy a lot of problems one of the the most obvious but one that very few people mention or maybe they don't monitor are credit of default swap cds's now this is the price of insurance against bankruptcy and uh so when the price of this insurance goes up dramatically in a short period of time uh i certainly take note so the five cdx as measured by market m-a-r-k-i-t has gone from 50 uh to a hundred uh year-to-date and uh for jp morgan so a money center bank it has gone from 48 to 102 so jp morgan's credit default swaps have gone up more than the market's average this doubling in in in credit default swaps for the market's average and jp morgan has us asking questions is there something systemic out there if on top there's leverage uh could be a problem now one of the reasons we don't think this is is going to be a problem is because of what happened a little more than a year ago with the archigos blow up apparently one bank didn't know the amount of leverage that archicos had taken on and and this was true across the banking system and and so that's how that situation became so leveraged i think risk officers are now looking for excessive leverage and so we would be surprised if there is going to be a systemic risk but we we do want to note that uh the concern is out there and and it is elevated the fed had waited too long and now it's going to have to work that much harder to get inflation uh under control i want to spend a little time on crypto it has been an incredible month and fears of systemic collapse have been rife in the marketplace bitcoin it peaked way back in november at 69 000 and it is now at 19.
uh 19 500. um uh it is still higher than its pre-covered seven to ten thousand range and it is just about at its uh 20 uh 2017 high so this could be some support it's also at um it's it's it is below its uh it's 200 week moving average uh which is at 22 500. so there is some concern that that is the new resistance crypto personified that d5 personified that uh when uh and and we knew that uh the luna terra experiment with algorithmic stable stable coins was not going to work it was backed by nothing it failed in spectacular fashion in in may and and has taken celsius down with it uh voyager digital uh three-hour arrows capital uh block almost it was very interesting uh to see blockfy's last funding round at three uh billion dollars this is a lending platform and uh tried to do another round recently at one billion dollars he couldn't get it done and today it seems that ftx is going to uh is going to buy it out or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million a rumor this week had it at 25 million so much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its last round big big down runs happening very quickly the transparency uh in in the market uh i think is the reason we've seen a lot of failures very quickly we have compared to the opacity in the traditional financial markets i think the shakeout in crypto has happened sooner and faster than it would have in the traditional financial markets blockfi is is going to ftx we know that uh two other platforms or companies led n which is a um a lending platform in canada highly regarded uh also seem to be interested as did i believe morgan creek now these these are people who really know what's going on in defy and if they're willing to step in here that has increased my confidence to some extent that the systemic risk is diminishing here with time we're seeing that each meltdown seems to be a smaller one not the opposite the only reason i think people are a bit on edge here is technicians who um those who really don't follow the crypto markets at all they they're just technicians they follow equities bonds they they don't they don't care what these companies do or you know what what kind of fixed income instrument it is they just have their technicals well if it breaks from here it could go to 11 to 13 000 from this 195 and the reason they say that i i can see this on the charts is that's where there is a huge amount of support where it peaked a lot of times i am feeling a lot better about what's going on in the crypto world right now um you'll see our bitcoin monthly i would say you know we're neutral to positive we're waiting for a few uh a few more capitulation signals and of course time will tell on uh the systemic side here um and uh we haven't heard of uh another stress signal in the in the last few days so so that's good as well what's happened in the crypto market gives you a sense of why it is a very um why it's going to work long run it's transparent um and there's a lot more trust in the crypto ecosystem because of the transparency and the over collateralization uh than i think there is in the traditional financial markets the crypto market has alerted us that hedge funds leveraging ten to one when yields are two percent so that they can reach the returns uh or their return objectives the fed has already gone too far and that if it increases rates again i doubt it'll be 75 maybe 25 or 50.
i even think that will be a bit too much given what's going on out there and given the recession we're in the fed thought these numbers were very strong consumption very strong no consumption is falling apart believe it or not bad news is good news now as tends to be the case in a bear market when inflation is a concern so bad news is good news and it's always darkest before the dawn and i i believe we've passed the darkest place there are others out there we're reading them in the press they say we're only halfway there and i think they follow algorithms i've watched a bunch of algorithmic behavior that you know just chases chases as an idea chases an idea until it stops and i think we're getting close to that point where they who seem so right with their negative stance over the last year or so will be on the wrong side of that trade
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