저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 6월 금리인상 가능성은 과대평가되었으며, 실제 인상 가능성은 낮고 금과 금광주에는 장기적으로 상승 요인이라는 주장. 연준 FOMC 의사록 분석: 의사록은 경제 성장 회복, 고용 개선, 인플레이션 진전이 있으면 6월 인상이 '아마도 적절할 것(likely appropriate)'이라고 했으나 확약은 아님. 그러나 시장은 이를 사실상 확정으로 받아들임. 경제 지표 비관론: 2분기 성장률은 1~1.5% 수준으로 부진하고, 4월 고용은 기대(20만명)에 못 미치는 16만명, 내용도 나빴다고 평가. 실업수당 청구 3주 연속 증가, 올해 최대 규모 감원 발표, 타겟 실적 쇼크(주가 장중 -10% 이상, 종가 -7.6%) 등 소매업 부진 언급. 시장 반응 및 구조: 달러지수 95 이상으로 상승, 금 약 20달러 하락(1,250달러대 유지), 은 하락, 금광주 8~10% 급락. 다우는 소폭 하락, 나스닥은 상승. 금융주는 금리 인상이 호재라는 기대에 반등했으나 Schiff는 저금리가 은행에 유리했다고 반박. 정책 전망: 6월 인상 가능성은 낮고, 인상되더라도 연내 1회에 그칠 것. 금리 인상 발언 자체가 주식시장 하락 → 연준 후퇴 패턴을 만든다고 봄. 2017년 12월 인상 이후 불황 임박 시 연준은 다시 인하·QE로 전환할 것. 금 관점: 실질금리가 여전히 마이너스(인플레 2% 대비 기준금리 0.75% 수준)이므로 금리 인상은 금에 약세 요인이 아님. 주식 급락 시 안전자산 수요로 금에 호재. 이번 금 조정은 매수 기회일 수 있으나 추가 하락 가능성도 인정. 장기적으로 금 강세장 지속 전망, 달러 약세 전망. 과거 달러 강세·금 약세 트레이드는 끝났다고 주장. 출연자 및 채널 정보: 진행자는 Peter Schiff이며, 금 구독 서비스 광고와 인터뷰 언급 포함. 기타 진단: 최근 금광주 급등 후 조정은 정상적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
short podcast today just to discuss the FOMC Federal Open Market Committee minutes that were released at 2 PM this afternoon Eastern which reflect the uh the views of the Fed at least what they wanted reflected in those minutes when they had their April meeting which was some 6 weeks ago when the Fed decided not to raise rates at that time and as a result of the release of these minutes everybody has now jumped to the conclusion that a June rate hike is not only on the table, but basically a done deal.
I mean, I heard people talking about it on CNBC basically. Well, you know, the Fed had to do this. I mean, they really had to show that they were on a path to normalization. They said that they would have a gradual pace, so they had no excuse but to do this. Do what? They haven't actually raised rates.
They've just talked about it. Let me read you the statement that they made about rates. They said that most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continue to strengthen and the inflation rate makes progress towards 2%.
I mean, that's already happened, right? But anyway, if if these things happen, if the economy picks up and if the labor market continues to strengthen, then it likely would be appropriate for the committee to increase the target rate in June. They didn't say they would do it. They said it would likely be appropriate.
Now, likely doesn't mean definitely. and appropriate doesn't mean they're going to do it because a even if they determine that it's appropriate. Just because it's appropriate doesn't mean they're going to do it because they do a lot of things that aren't appropriate. And again, likely that even if it is appropriate, they may not do it.
They likely may do it, but they may not. But again, what did they say first in order for it to happen? Because before you even get to the likely and appropriate part of this statement, two things also has to happen or three things if you want to count inflation. But inflation has already happened. So forget about that.
We got inflation. I mean they'll pretend that we don't have it but forgetting about that. Let's go to the other two things that have to happen. The economy has to pick up in the second quarter. Well, it doesn't look likely that that's going to happen. I mean, it's possible that we could get a second quarter that's stronger than the horrible quarter we got in Q1, but if we got one one and a half% economic growth in Q2, I mean, is that picking up?
I mean, it's still way below what the Fed was anticipating at the end of last year when they hiked rates. And certainly, if you averaged the second quarter with the first quarter, no matter what the second quarter is, it's still going to average out to be a very, very weak uh first half of the year.
But also the Fed said that in addition to the economy picking up in the second quarter, they also want to see that labor conditions have continued to strengthen. Now remember this was 6 weeks ago. This was before the April jobs number which was a disaster, right? We got the April jobs number at the beginning of May.
The Fed didn't know what the April jobs number was when they had this meeting and everybody expected 200,000 jobs to be created. I'm sure including the Fed, we only got 160,000. But more importantly, the internals were lousy. You know, we had the big jump uh or drop rather in labor force participation.
We revised down the previous jump up in in average hourly earnings. It was a lousy report. Then we also got the announced layoff number which was another big number. We've now started the year with the most announced layoffs since the Great Recession. And we just got three weeks in a row of increasing unemployment claims.
Uh the most recent, the highest in a year or two, but more importantly, the 3-w week jump because we were up three weeks in a row. And that was the biggest spike in the unemployment rate in 11 years. So when it comes to the job market so far, all the news that has come out since these meetings has been bad and most of the economic news that has come out has been bad.
Not only the news that's being released from the government, but look at all the terrible sales that are being reported. The uh bombshell of the day was from Target, which still managed to beat their earnings forecast because they had lowered them so much. But the revenues missed. Even though they had already diminished expectations, the stock was down.
At one point during the day, it was down over 10%. It closed down about 7.6%. It's still down about 20% in less than a month. Uh but this is just the latest retailer to blow up. They're blowing up one after another. And of course, more and more retailers just continue to make new 52- week lows today.
In fact, new multi-year lows. A lot of these stocks are half of what they were uh you know less than a year ago. But we're getting lots of bad economic news from the retailers. We're getting bad economic news in general in the government statistics. We got bad uh news coming out on the labor market.
Yet everybody who heard this immediately said, "Oh, the Fed's going to raise rates." Why? They didn't say that. They said if the economy improves, which it's not. If the labor market continues to strengthen, which it's not, then it may be appropriate for us to raise rates and we may actually do it. But they didn't commit to anything.
I mean, this is the same old same old that they were doing all last year, right? They kept crying wolf on a rate hike all year last year and they finally did it in December. Now they're starting to do the same thing again, talking about the possibility of raising rates. If the economy gets better, if the labor market gets better, uh then they're going to raise rates.
Well, you know, the labor market, according to the government statistics, was getting better all last year. The economy was getting better all last year, yet still they waited till December. Well, now the economy is getting worse by the government's data. The GDP is weak. The jobs numbers are turning in the wrong direction.
So the Fed should be talking about the economic weakness. They're not. In fact, the only thing they're talking about as a reason not to hike rates is the Brexit vote. You know, whether Britain will leave the Euro zone as if, you know, that's the big deal that the Fed is worried about. You know, it's possible when they don't raise rates in June, they'll blame it on Brexit uncertainty because apparently I think the vote uh comes after the meeting.
You know what also comes after the Fed's uh uh meeting is the GDP numbers for the second quarter. See, if the Fed is waiting to find out if the second quarter GDP did well, they're not going to know that until after the June meeting. They're not going to know that until July. So, if they're really waiting to find out how growth was in the second quarter, how could they raise rates in June when by then they won't even know what the second quarter was because the numbers wouldn't have been released unless they're just going to base it on, you know, the estimates from like the Atlanta Fed or the New York Fed.
I mean, the Atlanta Fed right now is up at 2 and a half%. Although, they were at 2.8, you know, last and they just revised it down. and they still likely will go a lot lower because the economic news has actually been pretty bad on balance since the Fed met. Certainly much worse than what the Fed was anticipating.
And the jobs markets has worsened. Of course, we're going to get one more jobs number before the June meeting. We're going to get uh the May number in the first week of June. I think I said June 3rd is when the Friday falls. And what if that's another bad number? Well, obviously this rate hike that was that I don't even think is really on the table is off the table.
But nonetheless, right, everybody just jumped to a conclusion that okay, that's it. They're going for sure. Now, when that happened, of course, the dollar rallied pretty sharply. This is a new, I don't know, maybe a four-week high in the dollar index. Dollar index is back above uh 95. It had gotten below 92 a few weeks ago.
But now it's above 95. It closed at 9520. And gold got clobbered. Gold was down just over 20 bucks. Still above 1250 though. Uh which I think is pretty encouraging. 1258 was uh the close. Silver down 35 cents. 1688. Gold and silver stocks they got obliterated. I mean most of the gold and silver stocks were down 8 to 10% on the day.
I mean that is a huge move. But remember I told you this on earlier podcasts. The biggest moves in a bull market are down and the biggest moves in a bare market are up. And that's what you've got. You've got these huge moves that are there to shake out the weak hands, shake out the speculators. And you know, all this rate hike talk, this just a bunch of talk, but it provides the fear in the wall of worry that this bull market is climbing because the reality of it is even if the Fed raises rates in June, and I'm not saying it's impossible.
I just don't think it's very likely that they're going to do it. And in fact, I don't think most stock market traders believe it either. Even though the foreign exchange market sold or the dollar rallied and gold sold off, the Dow was barely down on the day. I mean, at one point it was down over a 100.
Uh but it closed down, you know, single digits and the NASDAQ was actually up 23 points. If the stock market really understood that this was a done deal, they might have rolled over. But maybe it's because we were already at a two-month low and we had some short covering. You know, the financials all rallied as if this rate hike is somehow good for the banks.
It's not. People think, "Oh, higher interest rates are good for the banks." Yeah. Not when all the loans default. Not when the real estate market tanks and they don't no longer have any collateral. Look, low interest rates were good for the banks, right? How are high interest rates going to be good for the banks?
You can't have it both ways. I think it's the low interest rates that have been propping these things up. And so any meaningful increase in interest rates is not a positive for the financials. It's just wishful thinking uh that these financials are going to do well when the Fed raises rates. But if the markets really thought it was a done deal, I think the market would have gone down more.
Although we still might. This is just the first day. And in fact, if the markets continue to sell off between now and the June meeting, then even if the Fed was going to raise rates, it ain't going to happen. Because remember, they talk about financial conditions tightening. And that means the stock market go down.
See, that's what happens. The Fed talks about raising rates and then the stock market tanks and then the Fed doesn't raise rates and then the stock market goes back up. I mean, if anything, maybe this was kind of a trial balloon that the Fed wanted to float to see how the market would react to a potential rate hike.
And if the balloon blows up, if the market goes down, well, then they don't hike rates. And of course, if they don't hike rates in June, I guess they're setting this market up for a big rally, which maybe is what the Fed wants because now you're going into the conventions over the summer and then you got, you know, the election in the fall.
But that is another reason in theory that the Fed might raise rates in June because that's really the last time they can do it and have some distance between the rate hike and the election. Uh so it's possible they might go in June. And if they do raise rates in June, it's probably again one and done for the year because they're not going to do it again in September.
Is it possible they can do it in December after the election? In theory, but I think in reality, we'll be kneedeep in this recession by then. And of course, there'll be no need reason for the Fed to pretend that everything is great when the results of the election are already over. And and so I think the Fed can pull out the stop.
So I doubt we're going to get another rate hike. So, we had one rate hike last year and if we have one more this year, that's nothing. I mean, that means if the rate will still be a half of a percent to three quarters, we won't even be back to 1% and we'll be in a se severe recession and the Fed will be cutting rates.
But that rate hike, even if it comes, is not bearish for gold, nor is it bullish for the dollar. What happened the last time the Fed raised rates? after a knee-jerk reaction, we had a huge rally in gold and a big drop in the dollar. Why wouldn't the same thing happen if the Fed raised rates by another quarter point?
I think it would because I think the reason that the dollar rallied for three years and gold fell for those three years is because the markets were anticipating much more in the way of tightening than the Fed is delivering. The markets believed we had a much stronger recovery than we actually do. And therefore, they believed the Fed would be hiking rates.
Not only hiking rates actually, but shrinking its balance sheet, unwinding its balance sheet. There's no more talk about that at all. That's completely gone by the wayside. Right? The balance sheet is growing and no one's talking about shrinking it anymore like they were a few years ago. So, it was based on all this tight monetary policy, plus based on the divergence of monetary policy.
Not only was the Fed going to be tightening, everybody else was going to keep easing. Everybody else was going to be launching more QE. And I think that we've got they've gone about as far as they're going to go probably in Europe and probably Japan too. And probably they're likely to tighten their monetary policy maybe before we do or be tighter.
So that whole trade was wrong. And so I think the bare market in gold is over. The bull market, the dollar is over and now gold's going up and the dollar is going down. But the prospect of future rate hikes is what's dangling out there, which is that is supplying the fear, right? That's keeping these markets in check, keeping the bullishness from running rampid because people like, "Oh, no, the Fed's going to raise rates.
That's going to make gold go down." No, it's not because they're not going to raise them enough because inflation is always going to be out in front of the Fed. They're behind the curve. They're never going to actually get out in front of it. the rate hikes are not going to be big enough to create positive real rates which would be where the interest rate is higher than the inflation rate because even if the Fed raises rates to 3/4 of 1% even by the government's estimate we got 2% inflation so if the interest rate is less than two you got negative rates negative rates negative real rates are bullish for gold and so none of these rate hikes if they come are going to be uh bearish for gold and in fact If the stock market sells off as a result of the rate hike, which I believe it will because that's exactly what happened the last time the Fed raised rates, that's bullish for gold because people now buy gold as a safe haven from the tanking stock market.
So, the fact that the gold market and the dollar is what has the big reaction to the rate hike rumors shows me that traders still don't get it. Because remember, before the Fed rate hiked rates in December, it was the currency markets that were worried, right? The the gold markets, but the stock market was shrugging it off.
Hey, everything's going to be fine. We've got nothing to fear from a rate hike, right? And then the market tanked after the fact. But prior to that, when the Fed was bluffing a September rate hike and the market sold off going into that, the Fed didn't hike. The one of the only reasons they hiked in December was because they thought the market was blessing the hike.
And I said that at the time and I said, if they're betting on that, they're wrong because the market's not going to like the hike. And the market's not going to like this hike any better. In fact, it's probably going to like it even worse, which is another reason why the Fed probably won't do it. But if the stock market sells off between now and the June meeting, then there's no way they hike.
But if for some reason the delusion persists and the stock market actually rallies between now and June because apparently they're okay with a rate hike and then the Fed actually hikes rates, they're going to, you know, throw up on it just like they did the last time. But I think that'll be another buying opportunity in gold assuming that gold actually sells off between now and then, which it might not do.
I mean, it could easily just rally back as people come to the same conclusion that I have that the rate hike's not going to matter because even if they raise rates, it's too little too late. And ultimately, whatever they do is temporary because we're very close to the next recession if we're not already there.
So, the rate hikes are not permanent. They're temporary. So, they hike it and then immediately they have to ease. And that is going to be extremely bullish for gold because this easing cycle is going to be huge because they're going to take back. Well, first they're going to start talking about cutting rates, then they're going to cut them, then they're going to talk about QE, then they're going to do it, then they're going to talk about expanding it, then they're going to do it, then they might ease.
I mean, they have all these things they're going to do. And all this stuff is going to be extremely bullish for gold and very bearish uh for the dollar. So, if anything, yeah, we've got this pullback in the metals. Maybe it'll go on for another day or two. There's no way to know. Remember these markets, as I said on the podcast yesterday, we've come a long way.
I mean, these mining stocks have moved up dramatically, particularly some of these silver names I mentioned yesterday. They've moved up dramatically uh this year. So, they're entitled to a decline. Nothing goes up in a straight line. And again, you got to keep people honest. It can't be that easy to make money.
You can't just buy it and have it go up every day. There's got to be some fear. There's got to be a two-way risk in the market that the stocks go down as well as up. And that's what happens now. And I think again that's being interjected by all this rate hike talk. But again I think it's just talk. I think it's uh you know the the boys at the Fed or the girls crying wolf and the village idiots over there on Wall Street.
Every time they cry wolf they believe it. And yes there was a wolf. Finally we got one wolf in uh in December. But you know there was a lot of crying before that little wolf finally showed up. And now even if they raised rates in December it's six months. Remember when they raised rates in December, they were initially talking about four rate hikes this year.
No way that's going to happen. Even if we get one in June, the earliest we would get the next one would be December. And I think by then there's no way they're going to be raising rates. Everybody's going to know that they're going to be cutting. Attention listeners, I have an urgent message for you.
We're in the middle of a war. The global conflict is destroying the lives of millions without a single bomb being dropped. It's called the international currency war and your bank account has been drafted to fight. The victims in this conflict are our currencies. The dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound.
They are all heading to zero as irresponsible central banks compete to see who can print the most the fastest. But there's one form of money politicians and central banks can't destroy. Gold. Today, it's more important than ever to understand the value of gold in your portfolio and to keep a close eye on major market developments.
Subscribe to my monthly video cast and you'll be the first to hear my latest analysis on gold investing and the currency wars. Visit goldvideoccast.com right now to subscribe for free. I call the.com bust, then the housing bust, and I advise clients to diversify into foreign equities and hard assets while the rest of Wall Street laughed at me.
Now, I want to keep you up to date on the next crisis that is brewing. My goal video cast also includes personal interviews I've conducted with other contrarian investors like Jim Ricks and Axel Murk. Gold has gone up 256% since 2003, but it has a lot further to go. Don't miss the rally. You can prosper during this time of currency wars, but only if you stay educated.
Get a free subscription to my gold videocast at goldvideoccast.com. That's goldvideoccast.com. There's so much factually incorrect information and under reporting by legacy media today. Shouldn't there be truth in media? Well, there is truth in media. Recently, a novel thought is now a reality with truthandmedia.com.
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