저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 투자 초보에게 필요한 것은 차트나 단기 시세 맞히기가 아니라 기업 가치를 이해하는 원칙이며, 그 출발점은 벤 그레이엄의 가르침이라는 취지의 강연이다. 발언자는 11세에 첫 주식을 샀으나 차트·타이밍 실험으로 수익은 없었고, 19세까지 독학하다 1949년 벤 그레이엄의 '현명한 투자자'를 읽고 투자 철학의 틀을 얻었다고 회고했다. 첫째 원칙: 주식은 사업의 일부다. 주가 숫자가 아니라 사업의 경제적 특성, 경쟁자, 경영진을 따져 가치를 평가해야 한다고 강조했다. 둘째 원칙: 시장은 '미스터 마켓'이라는 조울증 동업자와 같다. 매일 가격을 제시하는데 투자자는 그 가격을 따를 의무가 없고, 유리할 때만 활용하면 된다. 시장은 투자자를 가르치는 곳이 아니라 필요할 때 서비스하는 곳이라는 논지다. 기업 가치가 연간 2배씩 흔들리는 일은 없지만 주가는 그렇게 움직인다는 대비도 제시했다. 셋째 원칙: 사업을 깊이 이해하는 것이 가장 중요하다. 1주일 안에 사업 세 개만 사고 팔 수 없다고 가정하고 고르는 사고 실험을 제시하며, 장기간 지속 가능한 경쟁우위(해자)를 가진 기업을 찾으라고 했다. 현재 이익이 가장 큰 기업이 아니라 지속 우위가 있는 기업이 기준이다. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 전망이나 매매 권유는 없었다. 출연자 본인이 투자 교육 콘텐츠를 설명하는 형식이며, 시장 방향에 대한 예측은 등장하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
I started investing when I was 11. I just dithered away until when I was seven or eight nine but so unfortunately I didn't get started till I was 11. but I bought my first stock when I was 11. and then I experimented with a whole bunch of things like the timing of stocks and charting and doing all these crazy things it was a lot of fun profitless but a lot of fun and I did that until I was 19.
and I read all the books on investing in the public library and just I ate it up it was fascinating to me but I had no framework I was just searching for something I was hoping that little things on a chart would tell me something about what a stock was going to do it was kind of crazy what everybody else was doing it so I figured I'd do it too sometimes you turn the chart upside down you know it still wouldn't help then in 1949 I read the intelligent investor by Ben Graham I'd never heard of them up until then and there are really only two chapters in that book that are the key to it but they set my philosophical framework for investing in three ways they're so basic and so simple it's hard to understand how they could be that important but the Ten Commandments are simple you know the first is that a stock is part of a business I mean you can't think of a sock as something different it's you value a business and then you divide it by the shares outstanding but what you have to think about is what kind of a business are you getting into what are its economic characteristics for its competitors once it's management like all of these things that relate to a business instead of a little ticker symbol I used to know when I was 11 or 12 the ticker symbols of every company virtually on the New York Stock Exchange I could Mark the boards of Harris up the Mio but I didn't know anything I mean I could you know I knew that X was ooh steel and two was at T and so on but I didn't I didn't know anything I didn't know what was behind them so I had to start looking at these little symbols or these little names in the paper as businesses and decide how do you value a business what counts the second thing in that in the book is that Graham gives you a marvelous set point in terms of how the investor should react to stock market fluctuations he talks about his mythical Mr Market in chapter 8.
there's been no better thing written in terms of the Investor's attitude towards stock prices most people react the wrong way to stock prices I mean they feel good when their stocks go up they feel bad when they go down they think the stock market is there to instruct them and Mr Market is this partner you have in investing you know these are remarkably obliging partner this guy comes around every day and he tells you why don't pay you for your interest in the business or what it'll sell you more at the same price nobody ever does that in private business if you owned you and I own a gas station together and I said every day I want you to come in and offer me your half interest in the station and I can either buy your half or sell you my half at the same price and you have to come in every day and do it you'd be at a terrible disadvantage and you'd be at a particular disadvantage if you're Mr Market in the market because Mr Market or a friend of the market who obligingly gives you those figures every day different figures at the end of the day at the start of the day but he's naming a price at which you'll either buy yourself the beautiful thing about him is that this guy is an alcoholic manic depressive I mean I mean he is as unsound as they come he wanders around all day you know and looks at the crazy things and he knows he's going to name all kinds of crazy prices and you don't have to pay any attention to them except when it's your advantage to do so if that's once a year if it's once every five years it's one stock out of three thousand all you have to do is sit there you have no moral responsibility to this jerk you know I mean he is naming these numbers you didn't ask him to but he's doing it and all you have to do is pick the one time when he is particularly depressed or particularly manic or particularly drunk or whatever it may be in the market will be all of those things and you take advantage of it and that's what's remarkable about stocks if you think about it is that if you look at the highs and lows of all of these American companies for the last year you'll see case after case after case where the highest twice below now that's for sound American businesses running along paying people selling Goods and so on if you go out and look at Farmland 10 miles from here there's no way in the world over here that the Farmland is going to range in value from X to 2x it doesn't maybe go from X to 110 of X or vice versa if you look at an apartment house near here and figures on essentially apartment houses like that over a year it won't it won't move 10 in a given year but here are the finest of American businesses and people just name these numbers that go all over the place and you don't have to play except when you want to that's the important thing and that's that's what Graham tells you is the market isn't there to instruct you to tell you anything the market is there just basically to serve you when you wanted to serve you you know one of the most important things to remember in stocks is very hard to do but people have all these feelings about it the stock doesn't know you own it you know you're sitting there with these certificates for Berkshire the company doesn't even know you own it you know and the stock doesn't its trading now and they don't know you own it so it has no feelings about you I mean you got all these feelings about it but it's just part of a business if Berkshire is worth seven five zero zero zero times a million and a half shares you know roughly 110 billion or something like that it's a good investment if it isn't it's a lousy investment you know you have to Value the business in Graham you know it's amazing but people don't do that in Wall Street you bet if your price targets or that kind of thing but you see no one write a paper that says here is the nature of this business over the next 20 years do you know what will that it should that business sell for forget about what it's selling for in fact one of the things I just can't get rid of one leg of the three-legged stool and still have a good investment philosophy but I would say that the most important thing over a long period and working with big money honest to understand the business let's just say for the moment that you were given a million dollars or whatever was necessary and you could look around Knoxville or look around all of Tennessee if you want to buy into any three businesses you know between now and a week from now private businesses are not trading or anything of the sort you've got a week to do it or you have to give the money back what will you be doing during the next week I mean you can look at all these companies some of them you're quite familiar with some of them you're less familiar with you know by reputation some of them you know the management some of them you know their competitive situation what will you be thinking about during that seven day period how will you actually be screening these companies out I think you look for three businesses and you can't trade them after you buy them you're just gonna you're gonna own the rest of your life you're gonna be looking for businesses that have an enduring competitive Advantage you don't want to buy a Burger King franchise just because nobody's come within 10 miles of it yet because you know Wendy's and Donald's and all of those will be there pretty soon it isn't necessarily who's earning the most money now you're going to look for something with an enduring competitive advantage what do you think of our video let me know in the comments section below if you enjoyed this video make sure to hit that like button also subscribe to my channel before you go
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