저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 현금은 안전자산이 아니며 통화정책 3 시대에는 잘 분산된 글로벌 포트폴리오가 필요하다. 현금의 위험성: 물가 대비 실질수익률이 하락하며, 연 7% 수준의 물가 상승은 보이지 않는 세금처럼 작용한다. 세 가지 핵심 동력: 장기 부채·통화 사이클, 빈부격차와 사회적 갈등, 중국의 부상과 기존 강대국(미국)과의 충돌. 역사적 비교: 네덜란드·영국·미국의 기축통화 흥망을 500년 단위로 분석하면 유사한 사이클이 반복된다. 1933년·1971년 통화 조치 사례처럼 부채 화폐화가 반복된다. 통화정책 3: 정부 주도 재정지출과 중앙은행의 화폐화가 결합되며, 자본 배분에서 시장보다 정치적 결정의 비중이 커진다. 자산 영향: 화폐 가치 하락 시 현금과 채권의 실질 가치는 줄고, 주식과 금은 상대적으로 유리하다. 중국 위안화(RMB)의 국제화와 중국 자본시장 유입을 주목해야 한다. 투자 결론: 현금 비중을 경계하고, 국가·시장·통화를 넓게 분산하라.
다듬은 글
cash is a risky asset I think so many people think if I go to cash I'm going to be safe because it's much less volatile but please realize in this environment of producing a lot more cash the real returns go down it's a seductive asset because let's say relative to inflation you might get taxed seven percent a year that's a huge amount of money over time but it's a subtle tax so first watch that then this is a study that I've been doing and then I decided to share it with people because I think it's so important a number of years ago first with 2008 we got into a monetary situation of course where we're printing money creating a lot of debt and monetizing it and that led me to realize that there are three big things that are going on in the world that are dominant and then covet came along those three forces our first the long-term debt and monetary cycle which I mean creating a lot of debt monetizing it and the implications of that which reverberate through the system in terms of all the markets and everything the second is this conflict this polarization this wealth Gap and how we're at each other's throats and I looked at the wealth Gap and I looked at a lot of measures of conflict going back in time and I found that they were in the 1930 to 45 period the printing of money as I described in debt monetization was also the 1930 to 45 period and the third big influence is the rise of China so the rise of a great power challenging and existing great power the United States and that has enormous implications as investor I think what are the relative appeals of the market it has a lot of implications it's not just the trade War so the markets and everything were reverberating the trade War the technology War the geopolitical war in Taiwan and the South China seas and then also the capital War we're seeing that emerge so those three factors required me to then go back in history I wanted to study the Rises and declines of Reserve currency Empires so I needed to go back far enough that I would have a few so I had to go back 500 years so I could see the rise and decline of the Dutch Empire and its Reserve currency the rise in decline of the British Empire and its Reserve currency the rise and beginning of decline for the United States and its Reserve currency in China it is really concerning it's even more concerning when I went back to find the 500 years and the times it repeated over and over again and what I found was there's a cycle there's a big cycle you know you start a new world order in 1945 we began a world order after the war they decided the wealth Gap because those who have Financial assets do better than those who don't have Financial assets and you have a wider and wider wealth Gap and when you have that wider wealth Gap and then you have another downturn in an economy that's a formula for a lot of conflict and so that's what we see so what does a central bank then do if it taxes it takes money out of the economy that's not good it's a problem and if it cuts expenses that's a problem so the Central Bank always through history this goes back literally thousands of years the central bank or the entity that controls money then prints more money think of it we got all those checks in the mail and we needed to get all those checks in the mail but you can't take it away from anybody so where does it come from and what are the implications so that happens for logical reasons and it often happens at the same time as there's a rising power externally as a competitor which is a challenge in that environment so yes it's one of those times and I think people are not aware of it because I learned from my experiences that many things that happened in my lifetime that surprised me never happened in my lifetime before but they happened many times before in history and that if I would go back in history I could see that the first time that happened was in 1971.
I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and Richard Nixon gets in front of the camera and says we're not going to give you the goal and the values the dollar and I walk on the floor of the stock exchange I figured there was a big crisis and I walked on the floor of the stock exchange and the stock market was up four percent which was the most in couple of decades and I said wow that's surprising and then I found out that Roosevelt did the exact same thing on March 5th 1933 and what was done and those two times is the same thing that was done on April 9th when the federal government and the Federal Reserve decided to produce a lot more money in credit so yes you need these perspectives and I want to pass that along monetary policy 3 which is now what we are seeing and what is needed is the production of that debt through government borrowing and the government direction of those checks to those who mean it most that's what we just saw and that being then monetized by the central banks and so we're in a new era okay of monetary policy 3 as I call it monetary policy three will mean that the free market will play a much less role in determining those Capital Market flows that the government as we come into the future will be thinking how do I get that money to those who need it the most so there'll be a highly political decision much more political than it was in the past and that the central bank then will monetize those political decisions some monetary policy free means there's that type of cooperation so those are the two dimensions of the big change environment you're going to see much more government influence and direction of where money goes which will have a big impact on not only the economy but of markets you have to watch what they're going to spend their money on and they have to watch where they're going to get their money from what taxes and so on means the government will play a bigger role and it also means that there will be much more debt that is monetized and that has implications for the value of financial assets it has implications for the value of the currencies and so on when you get to the end of the arc if money is hard when it was connected to gold or it was gold they always broke that link and if it was soft they would always print more money and you can't raise living standards by printing more money you can redistribute it certainly the money that is being received by those in the form of checks and they go out and spend it helps their living standards but what it does is it diminishes the value of that cash and it diminishes the value of bonds because bonds are a promise to receive a lot of currency and it shifts wealth to financial assets at all ways send stocks higher like my 1971 lesson it always sends gold higher so when we're looking at this we're going to also see I think the rise of the increased importance of China's REM MD is a currency it's got a long way to go before it's going to be a reserve currency but I think that one of the important things to see is that you're going to see favorable Capital flows for China and if you do a comparison of their Market where their interest rates are where their Capital markets who's doing IPO as you know merely half of the IPOs depending let's find out but something like 45 of the IPOs that there will be done in China's markets Shanghai and Hong Kong this year new offerings and more and more you're going to see the internationalization of the REM you're going to see Capital flows move in those directions and those kind of analogous movements have repeated through history I believe when I look at that and then if I narrowed down to investing those would be kind of the main headlines that I'd like to pass it would be first to realize that cash is not a safe investment it's a very risky investment the second big thing is diversify well and what I mean diversify well I mean diversify globally in countries and markets and in currencies what do you think of our video let me know in the comments section below if you enjoyed this video make sure to hit that like button also subscribe to my channel before you go
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