저자: JeremyLefebvre · 외국인
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팔란티어는 데이터·AI 분야 강력한 기업으로 5년 내 강한 성장과 높은 시총 잠재력이 있다고 봄. 다만 경찰 예측치안, 감시 관련 부정적 언론이 커지며 평판 리스크가 확대될 것이고, 이는 페이스북처럼 주가 밸류에이션을 억누를 수 있다고 주장. 벨류에이션 자체보다 내러티브 리스크를 핵심 위험으로 제시.
다듬은 글
well hello there folks and welcome into today's video so today uh we got a little bit of a different type of video and i kind of i almost call it like a lesson type video that i want to uh explain something that's going on with palantir stock that i think is very very important here and what it means for palantir's long-term valuation on this company what it means for the stock price and many various factors okay so i just got done watching a video from tom nash tom nash i try to watch all tom nash's palantir videos uh very very interesting and i love what tom nash has done as far as like you know pellantier's really built into a stock for tom nash that's going to be kind of his stake in the ground right meaning if palantir is hugely successful and goes up a ton tom nash is definitely going to benefit from that if palantir doesn't obviously it will hurt but i respect the fact that he's really put a stake in the ground when it comes to palantir and he's super bullish on the company talks about it a ton right and so he just put out a video recently and i just got done watching it called palantir is literally the worst company in the world and in this video he talks about uh you know basically ross gerber edwin and said a bunch of stuff about palantir company and and you know talking about other bad company and and things like that right and so i kind of want to act as kind of a man in this situation between tom nash and kind of his views in ross gerber and his views because i think both of these gentlemen have some good points here but i think there's some things that should be accounted for and like i said i've tried to watch all of tom nash's palantir videos he's put out over the past year or so i don't think i've ever really heard him address this head-on but it's possible i could have missed a video in the past but i think it's a really important issue that you have to have to think about if you ever invested in one of these sorts of companies that's caught up into what is uh this company's gonna be caught up into so i hope you guys enjoy as always don't forget to subscribe so when it comes to palantir pltr if you were to ask me am i bullish on the company or bearish on this company in the next five years bullish without question right i mean this is a company that you know if you look at their business model it's it's at the cross sections of data and artificial intelligence uh i think it's going to be a must of you know at least almost a must use for most big corporations over time and the best part of the business mall is i think it's going to be incredibly sticky business model and when i say sticky business model what that means is if you're a big corporation midsize corporation whatever and you start using palantir i think it's going to be hard to get off a palleteer and use some other companies product okay and so when you look at it from that angle this company i think has many years of strong revenue growth in front of them i think they're going to build out to a very very profitable business model over the coming years and i think there's a chance that this company can be a 100 billion dollar mark cap if not several hundred billion dollar market cap over the coming years okay so that's my views on on palantir on the positive side right i think there's kind of two things you got to consider on the stock uh on the other side okay now the first one is actually not the the biggest problem we're going to get into the biggest problem here in just a moment the first one is valuation right if you look at this company on any type of short-term metric it looks overvalued right p forward p price sales all those sorts of things but you can't really look at companies like that when they're a growth company like a palantir is right so i don't think that's really the biggest risk at all when it comes to a stock like palantir i think there's a much bigger risk that that tom nash and i think everybody that that owns a stock thinking about owning the stock should consider and it's the reason i haven't been able to build this into a big position because i'm like do i really want to catch myself up into another one of these type of stocks because i've been investing another stock over the past several years that's been caught up into a whole bunch of crap okay and i'm gonna share that stock with you here today and why this matters and why this it matters so much for long-term valuations of companies okay so look at this here how the lapd the los angeles police department and palantir used data to justify racist policing all right that's something local law enforcement quiet on relationship with predictive policing company since 2016 law enforcement agencies in san diego have spent millions of dollars on data analytics company known for its predictive policing platform with ties to immigration and intelligence authorities all while bypassing open discussion these sorts of headlines this is this this is not a good look uh for palunterium we're going to tell you why it's going to get a lot worse too coming okay revealed this is palantir's top secret user manual for cops motherboard obtained a palantir user manual through a public records request and gives unprecedented insight into how the company logs and tracks individuals by vice air palantir is one of the most significant and secretive not good okay this is just this isn't a good look okay and secretive companies in big data analytics the company acts as information management service for immigrations and customs enforcement corporations like jp morgan and dozens of other local state and federal agencies it's been described by scholars as a secondary surveillance network since it has extensively catalogs and maps interpersonal relationships between individuals even those who aren't suspected of a crime okay now uh and we're you know the stock that i've been in for many years that gets caught up into a whole bunch of crap okay so when you have headlines like this coming out and keep in mind palantir is still so on the dl compared to what palantir will be on in a few years from now when you have these sorts of headlines coming out okay it's gonna get a whole lot worse before it gets better for a company like palantir when it comes to stuff because what you've got to understand is as a company scales its business as it becomes bigger and bigger right and it gets to a bigger market cap bigger revenues bigger profitability everything more and more folks start to analyze a company and look at what it's doing and try to tear it down like anything else in the world the bigger something gets right the more folks try to tear it down whether that's a person a corporation whatever it is right and so you have palantir already starting to deal with all this stuff over the last couple years right all these sorts of articles coming out just you know on you know how this company is uh you know helps i mean look at the headline i mean it doesn't get worse than this it doesn't get worse than this if you want to talk about your brain and how it's going to be interpreted how the lapd uses and palantir use data to justify racist policing like those are sorts of headlines that will get worse before they get better because this company will likely become more and more successful and more and more folks are going to be looking at it and um just waiting to tear this baby down and i've seen it on message boards over the past couple weeks um on how many people view palantir and you know the views of it out there no the question is i don't think anybody should look at this and be like try to debate this right like well no palantir is not helping you know uh justify racist police policing and things like that right and um they're not you know helping these folks as much as you think blah blah blah don't ever look at it like that because that doesn't even matter all that matters is the narrative around it the narrative is what matters and as i say perception becomes reality and so if this builds into a bigger snowball which it will as palantir gets more and more successful this will be become a huge hurricane cloud around palantir that distracts the management team away from building the business into we've got to deal with an onslaught of negative media that's coming and it's going to be big negative media there's going to be cnn coming after them is going to be all the biggest publications out there are going to end up i in my opinion likely coming after palantir over time as the company gets bigger and bigger in talking about look at how bad this company is look what they're doing over here and as you deal with that you have some folks that say oh no they're not that bad they're helping right a matter and you have other folks say they're the devil and they need to be eliminated and we need to you know find a way to make this company you know make their life a whole lot harder than it's had to be right where they've kind of been able to operate on the dl in kind of a secretive manner right and that's going away for this company and so this is where you get into a real messy situation i've been in a stock in the past uh and currently right that i've been in for years that's the best business model you'll ever find they're a beast but facebook they've always had this cloud around them and it's one thing after another and as they became bigger and bigger and more successful they had to deal with more and more junk right the cambridge analytica situation how they're using data when this company was a much smaller company no one ever questioned that right now you've got certain groups of individuals that think you know facebook's the devil right and they're the the reason you know society is on the decline or whatever you know that's the way some folks think about this right whether that's true or is not true all that matters is in enough people's mind it is true right and so you have a lot of the reason facebook in my opinion trades at such a ridiculously low valuation compared to what it should trade out because this company should trade at a forward p of 40 or 50 easily if not 60 based upon its future growth rates the reason it trades so low is because a lot of funds and a lot of investors just choose not to be part of facebook because they know it's constantly caught up into a bunch of crap and they know you're going to have to answer to their investors who care about social related things right and they're going to ask facebook you know they're going to ask the the hedge fund or whoever is running the etf why you invest in facebook they're you know this they're that they help this president get elected blah blah blah right and so now the same exact thing is going to happen with palantir where all of a sudden you're going to have folks saying hey you know why you invest in palantir there are a racist company that's helping you know uh police departments you know basically you know have racist policies and using data just as an overclock over it right you're gonna have to deal with that now and so when it comes to like me and palantir it's like man do i really want to build this into a big position i'm like their opportunity is big in front of this company but they're going to get an onslaught of bad press coming over the coming years as a company has more and more success that's going to be vicious and i mean vicious and it holds back the it holds back the stock price in a way just like facebook's been held back there should be a 600 plus dollar stock today it's not because it's being held back by all the stuff they always have to go through and now palantir is about to go through a whole lot of stuff as this company gets bigger and bigger and more known out there okay and so this is something you have to consider if you're investing in a stock like palantir is you're going to have to understand there's going to be so much bad press coming for palantir over the coming years that it's going to be ridiculous that's all i'm going to say about that there's going to be so much bad press coming and you know you're not going to be able to change the narrative of this company like people are going to believe what people are going to believe and um it's gonna happen okay and so and then you have certain funds and folks that can't even invest in stock like this because they'll start to look at it as you know like if you look at certain industries it's so hard to find you know investors for some of these industries oil and gas like people look at that as this like a dirty industry that a lot of folks don't even want to be invested in nowadays cigarette companies like look at the valuation cigarette like no one wants to be part of cigarette company nowadays right if you look at like the private private prison industry right like no one wants to be part of those those those uh you know stocks right because they look at those and they're like hey that's just bad stuff right they look at that as kind of the devil and then if all of a sudden this becomes the narrative around you you know for your company i mean that's you know it gets ugly really really fast and so i think that's something that folks should consider if you're you're investing in palantir you're thinking about investing in palantir is just the fact that there's going to be massive negative press coming for palantir as a company has more and more success okay so anyways guys hope you enjoyed a little video like this a little learning video where we describe uh something that's you know this isn't something that's usually taught uh in an investment book or something like that right you know of having to deal with situations like this this is not something you usually have to go through this has nothing to do with financials or uh income statements or balance sheets or any of that it has to do with perceptions and whether people will invest in stocks uh based upon cert you know perceptions that are put out there around it okay much love as always guys and have a great day
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