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hey guys marcia the electric israelis here thank you for joining don't forget to hit that subscribe button and today we're going to talk about tesla a stock and future uh projection uh just full disclosure i do not recommend you to buy sell or hold any stocks including tesla just for another full disclosure i do own tesla stock and i do invest in arc invest which i'm going to talk to you a lot about today including a tesla model y and the tesla model 3 next to me so that's all the disclosure so let's go to the uh immediate news and then the future news about art invest continue to project a 7 000 tesla price so first of all tesla split one for one to five um is going to be executed at the at the end of this week so if you are holding holding a tesla stack you're going to get to see that split at the end of this week uh end of august uh if you buy tesla stacks this week or it's it's not going to affect at all only until it was until friday so the split is happening this week price is over two thousand dollars now tesla market cap is 30 379 billion dollars just for to give you a sense it's more than a volkswagen and toyota combined volkswagen toyota sold last year 20 million cars as opposed to 367 500 of tesla cars but that's not the story as of course you know it's about the future now what to look for battery day coming in on september 22nd it's supposed to be according to all the rumors something groundbreaking in battery technology also a q3 delivery sometime beginning of october first to third q3 deliveries and q3 earning in a sometime at the end of october beginning of november that's when the uh the earning are reported now a story that was not so much covered because of all the other things that going on with tesla is that panasonic is going to add 14 uh production lines 14 production lights for a battery that of course going to relate to a more efficient uh battery chemistry and all that 14 lines that that in the factory in nevada now will tesla hit the 500 000 mark this year uh most likely because a lot a lot to do with china and uh with the third and fourth quarter uh which are historically uh better for a cars and a tesla cars in them in particular now let's move uh these are the immediate let's move to uh catherine catherine wood coffee wood she is awesome she's from arkhanvest i do hold a shares of arc invest so full disclosure she had a massive interview i'm going to show you some snippets of it uh we still think it's way underestimated even with the massive move it has had it hit 350 dollars at the bottom in march um and is now 1900 roughly there yeah it went over 1900 and fell back a little bit today yes uh and uh even with this um our bear case for this stock has been 1500 now that's a five-year price target that assumed that tesla would lose market share we first made this analysis in 2018 2018 tesla had a 17 share of the global ev market including china last year i think i've got this number right they had 23 percent share we assumed for our bear case that tesla would lose market share from that 17 percent and go down to in our base case 11 and in our bear case six percent instead what has happened it went up to 23 last year and now i think we're up to this is rough uh as of mid-year about 26 so it's still increasing has 78 9 to 80 percent share in the united states and even in china where i think there are 150 electric vehicle manufacturers crazy crazy um tesla has 21 had in june 21 of that market think about that 150 and tesla is 21 now it's incredible yeah it is incredible what's really interesting is pinduodu which is a social commerce company yeah it uh basically is giving away a tesla or there's some or selling a tesla selling selling tesla on its network for a discount and tesla has had uh uh has had to go to them and say wait a minute the customer is ours not yours so they but think about that pinduo audio thinks this is so important in china is going to be such a business getter driver for it that it so uh that's that's the first thing so it's not losing share it's gaining share and in that bear case we have nothing for autonomous at all and nothing for ride hailing ride hailing we do think they're going to start a ride-hailing service this year they're going to compete against uber and lyft uh we believe if they do that and and again we think they will uh we think that the bear case is history um and so when we see it past 1500 to 1900 we're not worried at all and in fact our base case which is in the 7000 range this is again a five-year target our base case will also go up if they do launch this ride-hailing network because we have not included uh that and in our base case we have simply assumed that they keep their share from last year not lose it uh so i i believe i'm right we may have we may be assuming that it does go back to 17 i'll have to check on that and talking about what are the uh why is she so uh uh bullish on tesla now she's been talking about it for years she and and um and bearing investments talking about it for you this is not news and she point out few very interesting facts sometimes you forget about so in 2018 a tesla owned 17 of the global market all right uh in 2019 it went up to 23 of the global market when ark invest predicted maybe a a a loss to 11 in 2020 tesla now owns 26 of the global market 80 of the united states market that is totally amazing globally but totally not surprising in in the united states because there is no competition and says zero whatsoever it's nothing even in china where there are 150 uh companies 150 companies that make evs china is the biggest market in the world for evs tesla still owns a 21 of uh the market now let's go to uh a one of the biggest uh uh assumption of arc invest in their price to get to seven thousand dollars and that is of course the full self drive first step might take place this year and that is ride hailing okay like uber and lyft imagine a tesla owner or a tesla wannabe owner uh who can now be employed by tesla or work use this car or her car to participate in tesla ride sharing okay and uh be part of this luxury network and use tesla insurance also which is significantly less than everybody else and be part of this now let's say you don't own a tesla i do let's say you don't how about if tesla uh ask you to put five to seven thousand dollars down and now you can own a tesla and you can work uh you know half a day three quarters of a day you know days work seven hours five hours eight hours and pay off the card this way by you know uh uh paying off a little bit through the ride hailing you are employed by tesla and eventually it will like a rent to buy kind of a thing it's a rent to buy idea that will eventually you own the car you make money from the car now it is not full self self-drive yet but it will be uh autonomous car with the driver to begin with with the driver to begin with that is a an amazing amazing step and tesla may actually do it today now what is it for tesla beside having more tesla owners even if even if they're not getting all the money up front but incrementally and getting a share of the right dish hailing what is it for what's in for tesla data collection more and more data collection tesla has won the ai a neural um network uh a war it's over google and the cruise technology forget it it is over tesla now has now has 14 to 15 billion miles of data collected from drivers on the road right now and imagine with ride hailing how many more uh they will uh uh have even in china catherine would talk about in china about the baidu ai a in the that nvidia is not including anymore included anymore in that technology even in china tesla may have a 10 share of the uh ride hailing or the full self drive or the or the autonomous um the autonomous market the autonomous car market and when when that gets to be hopefully that would also be meaning a driverless car uh the tesla owners like i am or others can leverage their car to uh be to participate in ride hailing uh i mean looking at 20 20 million tesla car sold per year is inevitable all right guys thank you for watching let me give give me your thoughts below and i'll see you all tomorrow
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