저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 댄 아이브스는 테슬라가 단순 자동차 회사가 아니라 플랫폼 기업이며 1,000달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 단기 전망: 주가 695달러에서 다음 주 700달러 돌파 가능성을 언급하고, 700달러는 단기 목표라고 설명한다. 장기 목표: 1,000달러가 강세 시나리오이며, 4~5년 뒤 주당순이익 10~15달러를 근거로 제시한다. 수요 근거: 현재 전기차 수요 비중 약 3%가 연말 6%로 증가할 것으로 보며, 미국뿐 아니라 중국 수요가 핵심이라고 강조한다. 시장 규모: 전기차 시장을 향후 10년간 1조 달러 규모로 보고 있다. 비교 논리: 아이폰 출시 당시 애플 주가가 판매 대수보다 향후 판매 잠재력에 반응했던 사례를 들어, 전기차 점유율이 낮아도 성장 여력이 크다고 주장한다. 사업 다각화: 테슬라는 자동차, 보험, 자율주행, 소프트웨어 업데이트, 태양광, 배터리 저장 등 다양한 사업을 하므로 자동차 회사 프레임으로 보면 안 된다고 주장한다. S&P500 편입: 다음 주 월요일 편입을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 테슬라 밸류에이션은 실적 성장에 따라 점차 정당화될 것이며, 4분기 인도량이 중요한 단기 변수라고 본다.
다듬은 글
yeah i i still think it has fuel in the engine here i mean ultimately i think we could be looking at a seven handle as we go into next week and and i think fundamentally you take a step back this is really a defining chapter in the tesla success store especially in the profitability focus that continues to be i think the mage differentiator for musk especially with teflon-like demand that you're seeing on the ev side this was den ives uh friday morning as the market responded to tesla moving to the s p 500 this coming monday the stock shot to 695 dollars and is basically explaining uh what is this real story of tesla why is the trajectory for tesla stack is not only to reach 700 which it almost did but to continue to go all the way to a thousand dollars let's see what else it says so just on what sort of numbers basis would you get to your 700 dollar price i think 700 is just near-term ultimately bold case is still a thousand dollars and i think it really comes down here it's only right now three percent of demand is ev i think that goes to six percent by year end you could be looking as you look out next four or five years ten fifteen dollars or earnings power that's the key because you're seeing the demand as well as you're seeing the profitability and i think investors right now continue to view tesla's the core way to play ev i view this is a trillion dollar market the next decade and that's why i think they continue to grow into their valuation thousand dollars bouquets as they execute i think we'll see that again over the coming weeks with q4 deliveries but it is and so let me show you something give your knowledge is my iphone so 10 15 years ago when there are there were no smartphone coming out and their first iphone iphone one came out and the apple stock shot up in 10 15 20 30 multiples it wasn't about how many iphones they sold it's about how many iphones they will sell and we all know that the rest is history so even though the ev market is three percent we're talking about the next 10 15 years 6 10 20 30 50 and eventually a hundred percent now who is prime to be there when the uh uh if the market is going to be taking over and replacing the ice cars obviously tesla is prime candidate because that's only that's the only thing that they do but there is much more into that watch this an argument that it's an auto company and it's going to it's going to make those numbers as an auto company or it's going to make those numbers as an auto company plus plus something else a great point that's why i've never viewed it as an auto company have you a disruptive technology name in terms of that's the multiple i think it deserves and you're starting to see that more across ev because of what they're doing and they've built out the industry in terms of ev and right now we're still seeing the early days of demand not just in the us but especially in china which continues to be the hearts and lungs of the tassel bull story okay so that's the point that is the point it's for them fiat and gm that the only thing that they make that's the only thing they make they make cars tesla makes car but tesla makes so much more it's the insurance it's the autonomy okay it's the platform all right it is the uh software updates it's it's the solar it's the battery uh storage it's more than than anybody else so that's where the future of tesla and the future of tesla stack is and being included in the s p 500 next week is very exciting and i'm glad i'm part of it and i'm glad i never sold one share so that's what i do i don't suggest to tell you what to do but this is why it's what they're going to be and what they're they're becoming i'm confident that they will reach the 500 000 cells this year but that's not the story uh again to my to my cell phone analogy i rarely make phone calls on this cell phone even though it's called cell phone it's everything else that we make on it then then what it is actually called so it's much much much more than just a device that you can make phone calls from thank you for watching guys i hope you enjoyed it see you tomorrow
Comments 0