저자: DanIves/영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 테슬라가 AI·로보틱스 전환으로 시총 3~5조 달러까지 갈 수 있고 머스크 목표가 터무니없지 않다고 주장. 영상은 머스크 1조 달러 보상안(시총 2조→8.5조 달러 구간, 운영 목표 2천만 대·옵티머스 100만 대·FSD 1000만 구독·로보택시 100만 대·이익 4000억 달러)을 분석. 8.5조 달러는 현재 시총 약 1.5조 달러의 5.7배. 노르웨이 국부펀드·캘퍼스 반대, ISS·Glass Lewis 반대 권고 언급. 실현 가능성은 있으나 완벽한 실행이 필요하다는 결론.
다듬은 글
Look, I think it just comes back to when it looks at robotics and you look at autonomous. I mean, this is the most important chapter I think in the history for Tesla. So, you need Musk as a leader, as ultimately the key ingredient to get there. Look, you start to get to three, four, five trillion as a market cap and also based on a lot of those sort of, you know, targets to hit.
I believe it's all on the table. I mean, this is not these are not targets that are just ridiculous. Obviously, extremely optimistic, but I think Tesla is gonna be able to get there as they execute. You just heard Dan IV say Tesla could hit a $5 trillion market cap and that Musk's targets aren't ridiculous.
Tesla shareholders just approved what is literally the largest corporate pay package in human history. Up to $1 trillion over 10 years for Elon Musk. 75% of voting shares approved this 2 days ago at Tesla's annual meeting in Austin. Let's break down exactly what needs to happen for Musk to earn this and whether it's actually achievable or complete insanity.
Quick disclaimer, this isn't financial advice, just breaking down what this pay package actually means and the targets involved. Do your own research. So, here's the structure. Musk gets zero salary. Instead, he gets stock grants in 12 trenches, each worth roughly 1% of Tesla stock. That vest only if he hits specific operational and market cap milestones simultaneously.
The operational targets are deliver 20 million vehicles annually, sell 1 million Optimus humanoid robots, get 10 million full self-driving subscriptions, operate 1 million robo taxes commercially, and generate up to $400 billion in core profit. And the market cap targets start at $2 trillion, which would be roughly 33% higher than Tesla's current $ 1.5 trillion valuation and scale all the way up to $8.5 trillion for the final trench.
Let me repeat that. $8.5 trillion in market capitalization. To put this in perspective, Nvidia, currently the most valuable company on Earth, has a market cap around $4.6 6 trillion. Apple hit about $4 trillion. Microsoft around $3.6 trillion. No company in history has ever come anywhere close to $8.5 trillion.
Tesla would need to increase its current valuation by roughly 5.7 times to hit that final milestone. And Musk needs to do this while also delivering on those operational targets. 20 million vehicles is roughly double Toyota's current annual production. 1 million robots is creating an entirely new market that doesn't really exist yet.
And 1 million robo taxes means solving full autonomy and getting regulatory approval at scale, which nobody has done. The way the trenches work is Musk unlocks each one by hitting paired milestones. So, he doesn't get all $1 trillion unless he hits every single target. But he can still earn tens of billions, even if he only hits a few milestones.
Each time he achieves an operational goal, while Tesla's market cap reaches the corresponding threshold, he vests another 1% of the company. If he hits every milestone, he ends up with roughly 12% more of Tesla on top of his current 15% stake, bringing him to around 25 to 27% ownership. That increased voting power is actually part of why Musk wanted this deal.
He said publicly he wants at least 25% voting control to steer Tesla's AI strategy without the risk of being outvoted. The net value after accounting for taxes and the shares that existed when the board passed this in early September is $878 billion. But the headline number is $1 trillion because that's what the total grant could be worth if Tesla hits $8.5 trillion valuation.
Now, let's talk about whether this is actually achievable. Dan Ies is bullish and says these aren't ridiculous targets. They're extremely optimistic, but possible if Tesla executes. The bullcase goes like this. Musk hit his previous 2018 pay package milestones ahead of schedule, which required a 10 times increase in market cap.
Tesla went from around $50 billion valuation to over $500 billion within a few years, and Musk earned tens of billions from that package before it got struck down by a Delaware judge. So, there's precedent for him overd delivering on ambitious targets. The 20 million vehicles target assumes Tesla continues scaling production globally and they're building factories in multiple countries.
The Optimus robot is still in early development, but Musk spent a lot of time at the shareholder meeting talking about it. He danced on stage with the robots and said, "This is the new book for Tesla, not just a new chapter. The robotics market could be enormous if humanoid robots actually become practical for industrial and commercial use.
FSD subscriptions and robo taxis both depend on solving autonomous driving which Tesla's been working on for years with their visiononly approach. They've got millions of cars collecting realworld data which is a massive training data set. Uh, and the profit target of $400 billion would require Tesla to become not just a car company, but a diversified AI/rootics/energy company with multiple high margin revenue streams.
But here's the reality check. Hitting $8.5 trillion would make Tesla worth more than the entire GDP of most countries. It would be worth more than the next five largest companies combined. To justify that valuation, Tesla would need to dominate multiple massive markets simultaneously. Electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robotics, energy storage, and AI.
Even if you believe in Musk's vision, the execution risk is enormous. They're facing declining sales right now, partly because Musk's political activities have alienated some of Tesla's core customer base. The FSD system is under regulatory investigation after incidents where Tesla vehicles ran red lights, drove on the wrong side of the road, and were involved in crashes.
Whimo already has functioning robo taxes on the road in multiple cities, so Tesla is not first to market there. The humanoid robotics market is speculative. There's no proven demand at scale yet, and competitors like Boston Dynamics have been working on this for decades. The 20 million vehicle target requires Tesla to more than triple current production while maintaining margins in an increasingly competitive EV market with Chinese manufacturers like BYD scaling aggressively.
The shareholder vote itself was interesting. 75% approval sounds overwhelming. But when you exclude Musk's own 15% stake that voted in favor, the support gets narrower. Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, voted against it. Kalpers, the biggest US public pension fund, voted against it.
Proxy advisory firms Glass Lewis and ISS recommended against it. Their concerns were about dilution from issuing 400 plus million new shares. Governance issues because Tesla's board is very close to Musk and the fact that Musk runs multiple other companies simultaneously. SpaceX, XAIX, formerly Twitter, Neuralink, Boring Company.
There's a legitimate question about focus and potential conflicts of interest, especially since Tesla's shareholders also approve Tesla investing in XAI, which is Musk's AI startup that could compete with Tesla's AI efforts. But retail investors who own an unusually large percentage of Tesla compared to typical public companies were strongly supportive and many institutional investors who believe in the long-term AI transformation story also voted yes.
The 10-year timeline is both generous and constraining. Generous because it gives Musk a full decade to figure out robotics autonomy and scaling production. constraining because technology and markets move fast. What looks achievable today might be obsolete in 5 years or competition might make it impossible to hit these targets.
Musk at the shareholder meeting promised the Cyber Cab robo taxi would enter production in April 2026 said the nextG roadster unveiling is coming and stated he's almost comfortable letting drivers text while using FSD. Those are bold claims that need to be delivered on. The board's argument for approving this package was retention.
They warned that without it, Musk might walk away from Tesla to focus on SpaceX and XAI. Whether you think that's a real risk or a negotiating tactic depends on how much you believe Musk is truly irreplaceable at Tesla. Here's my take. The targets are technically possible, but would require near-perfect execution across multiple extremely difficult technology and business challenges over a decade, while also requiring the market to value Tesla not as a car company, but as a transformational AI/rootics company worth more than any company has ever been worth in history.
Nvidia hit $4.6 trillion by essentially becoming the infrastructure layer for the entire AI revolution. Every company training AI models needs their chips. For Tesla to hit 8.5 trillion dollars, they'd need to dominate multiple massive markets with similar monopolistic characteristics, which seems unlikely given the competition in electric vehicles, robo taxis, and robotics.
But Musk has a track record of achieving things people said were impossible. Reusable rockets, mass market EVs, private space mission. So dismissing this outright would be foolish. It's just important to understand the scale of what's being promised here. This isn't a 2x or 3x valuation increase. It's 5.7x to reach that final milestone.
And it requires simultaneously executing on operational targets that each represent massive undertakings. The next few years will show whether Tesla can actually deliver on the robo taxi and optimist promises and that'll determine whether any of this is realistic. This isn't financial advice, just context on what shareholders actually approved and what needs to happen from here.
Drop a comment and let me know what you think about this pay package and whether Musk can actually pull it
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