저자: TimSchäfer · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏식 장기투자 원칙을 소개하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장은 좋은 기업을 사서 오래 보유하면 배당과 이익 성장으로 주주가 이익을 본다는 것이다. 마이크로소프트는 2000년 인터넷 버블 붕괴 후 회복해 과거 고점 근처까지 올랐고, 상장 이후 약 60,000% 수익을 냈다고 설명한다. 존슨앤드존슨은 50년 이상 배당을 꾸준히 올린 귀족주로 소개되며, 1970년 이후 10,000% 이상 상승했다고 언급한다. 버핏은 주가 급락 시 추가 매수하고 매도는 드물다고 주장한다. 이는 과거 사례 설명이며 예측이 아니다. JP모건은 배당수익률 약 2.9%, 장부가 대비 약 8% 프리미엄으로 장기 보유 가치가 있다고 평가한다. S&P500은 최근 사상 최고치이며 과거 50년 연평균 약 10%(물가 차감 시 7~8%) 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 조정이나 폭락 가능성도 인정하지만 장기 투자자는 흔들리지 않는다고 말한다. 엑손모빌은 유가 폭락으로 매출과 영업이익이 크게 줄었으나 배당수익률 3.4%는 여전히 매력적이라고 본다. 필립스66은 정유업체로 유가 하락의 수혜를 받으며, 버크셔가 약 15% 지분을 보유한다고 설명한다. 코카콜라는 버핏이 오래 보유한 안정적 브랜드로 소개되며, 버크셔가 약 9.25% 지분을 갖고 있다고 언급한다. 영상은 특정 시점의 장기 보유 관점을 제시하며, 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Hello, my name is Tim Schäfer. I wanted to quickly talk today about long-term investing, which Warren Buffett and many successful investors do. And I also gave away books here, um, by Jeremy Siegel, namely six copies of the book "Stocks for Eternity," and I wanted to do another giveaway with that one.
Um, now I wanted to briefly explain how all of this works. So, it's based on the fundamental assumption that you buy good quality companies and hold them for a very long time, and the shareholder then benefits from the positive profit development over long periods. If I look at Microsoft, for example, then it makes sense to hold onto a good company like Microsoft for the long term, and you can see the development very nicely on the chart, on the long-term chart.
For example, Microsoft pays dividends quarterly. You can see that here. It all started sometime in 2004. Here you can see the internet bubble; the stock exploded. Then came the big setback, uh, in March 2000 all the internet stocks imploded, many simply vanished into thin air. Many companies in the field of internet software were extremely overvalued, including Microsoft.
And then you can see here how all of this has consolidated and dropped significantly . But then in the next decade, the value recovered again. And um, when I look at this now, um, you can see that after more than a good decade, or almost two decades, the stock is recovering and uh uh is now on its way up again .
We are almost seeing a new all-time high again, meaning that the old record high prices have even been reached again. And the long-term performance of the stock is 60,000% since the IPO. You can see that here in this area. Um, yes, Microsoft went public, I'd have to double-check that, but I think it was in 1986.
So, with Bayhold, you would have made 60,000% on the stock. That's not bad at all, but you can basically make good money with other boring things too, e.g. with a Johnson & Johnson, basically no magic is needed at all. No special knowledge or high IQ is required. No extreme intelligence is needed to understand this.
But here you can see opportunities and opportunities. Fantastic chart. That's an aristocratic value. Below you can see all the dividend payments. That's insane. Each D stands for a quarterly dividend, e.g. I believe the last one was 80 cents per quarter, and the chart goes back to 1970, with Johnson & Johnson being the largest farmer and consumer stock, gaining over 10,000%.
A 1000% return was possible with the Bayern Hold here with this stock. It's a fantastic value founded by two or I think even three brothers of the Johnson Family. They basically introduced a set in the hospital for wound treatment, disinfection, and the fight against bacteria and viruses, and then they started mass production.
It has developed fantastically. Why did Buffett do that earlier? He's an aristocrat. Johnson & Johnson has been increasing its dividend regularly every year for at least, I don't know, over 50 years, and you can basically just walk through it and look at other stocks. General Electric, AT&T ( the telecommunications company AT&T), JP Morgan, Po Gamble, or Najbank, e.g., Wels Fago.
Now let's look at, uh, for example, games, or travel, also an internet value. They took over Yahoo and are still on their way, or AOL when it comes to travel. They want to grow very strongly, especially in the content area, in the online content area, because mobile phones or smartphones are being used more and more as a way into the digital world.
It's no longer the desktop, no longer the PC, but more the smartphone, and that's why they are investing aggressively in content at Reisen, and they have acquired AOL, as already mentioned, and want to acquire many others in the content sector. Here are the figures, uh, a dividend yield. What do we have here?
You could take a look at Verizon . One of the leading telecommunications providers alongside AT&T in the USA. They have a dividend yield of 4.4%. That's a nice long-term value. And if you do something like that, you get the 4.4% dividend yield per year and you can pocket the price increase; the stock costs $50, and you can do that with many others.
Pizer, JP Morgan Wisen, Berkshway. Worksh does not pay a dividend. The profit increases are fantastic. Yes, now we come to the bu raffle. I've already opened a random number generator here. I have 70 comments. Everyone has a chance. Let's begin. The first generation was number 29. So, comment 29 won.
Let's do it again and see if comment number 39 has won. Again. Then comment number 15 won. Let's do number 19 again. Okay, then let's do number 52 again, and for the last time, the 70 comments, number 23. Yes, congratulations to the three... uh... to the winners. 29, 39, 15, 19, 52, and 23. Okay. Um, yes, I'll send the books and I'll also inform the winners.
Um, for the addresses, I still need the details. So, to reiterate what Jeremy Sigel says, stocks are the best long-term investment, and then you can invest in stocks like General Electric or what I've mentioned here is the travel industry. These are boring stocks, but they have a lot going for them: high dividends and, well, price increases.
Um, yes, and then you do that, and then you basically don't need to speculate at all, but rather invest in fantastic companies for the long term. And you don't actually need 100 companies; you can also invest quite selectively in solid assets . And then you have something like JP Morgan, for example, which is one of the leading banks, the largest bank, one of the biggest banks in the USA.
JP Morgan, why can't I find them here? JPM, and then look, the stock is on its way up. Um, it costs just under $70 and the nice thing is the good dividends, the numbers. JP Morgan pays a dividend yield of almost 2.9% and the valuation is not very expensive, making it a nice, boring stock and a good value for long-term investment and holding.
Buy Ben Hold and forget about it; you can always add more later. The stock is available at almost book value. It is only slightly above book value, 8% above book value. It's very stable, they have beautiful fairy tales and a conservative leadership, conservative policies, and you can simply, as I said, buy something like that and leave it.
Of course, there are always crises, there are setbacks, there are companies that have problems, but that's part of it . That's why you build a portfolio of stocks, and then you can weather a crisis and see long-term gains. As Jeremy Siegel says, stocks are best compared to all other asset classes, and I believe the return over the past 50 years has been almost 10% with the S&P 500, annualized in recent years , so almost 10%.
You have to subtract inflation, then you might get a real figure of 7 or 8%. Right now, of course, the stock market is at an all-time high, and the S&P 500 has performed fantastically. Looking at the chart, I have to say, okay guys, this thing has more than tripled since the financial panic we had 8 years ago, um, when everything collapsed .
The stock market has tripled in value, so there could be a correction at some point, a pullback, or even a crash, but we long- term investors won't let that unsettle us . We invest for the long term. Um, and if there's a pullback or even a crash, then we'll add more and increase our positions. Long- term investors do n't even think about selling; for us, it's all about holding and increasing our positions.
That's basically what Warren Buffett does too. Of course, Warren Buffett has, um, some sales. Uh, it happens from time to time, but it 's very rare and the media tends to exaggerate the portrayal when he reduces or even sells a position. It does n't happen often, but of course it always makes headlines more than such small increases.
And if he holds a stock for ages, like American Express, there are no headline figures, but he's had it in his portfolio for ages, decades, and um, well , it's always the case that when he sells or reduces something, it always makes headlines. If he believes in something, nobody cares for decades. Yes.
Um, let's take another look , for example, I personally find an exon interesting, uh, because we have the oil price crisis. Value investors invest in people like Buffett, who always invest against the grain when an industry is performing poorly or when a company is facing a crisis . These are indeed preferred entry points.
For example, Spiel, who was a big player in MX, he got in when there was this oil scandal, this oil, um, there was a scandal in the 60s, which destroyed the stock, Buffett got in aggressively and, uh, I think he even invested 30% of his portfolio in IMEX back then, so extremely aggressively, because he was aware of the situation.
Um, and now we have the oil crisis. You can already see that the Exon stock is not currently valued so highly, but the long-term outlook is always fantastic. And down here you can see the dividend machine, what they're paying out. It 's insane. It's a cash machine, but the oil crisis has also left its mark, and um, in the P&L, the dividend yield of 3.4 % at Exon is still fantastic.
Um, and let's take a look at the financials to illustrate that again. Here's the oil crisis; sales are clearly declining when oil is worth less than before. They generated 394 billion in revenue here, now only 200, er, 60 billion. And the revenue, uh, the surplus, uh, the operating profit, uh, yes, I could say, has changed drastically; the operating profit and, um, the surplus has halved.
Let's look at 16 billion. Sure, that's the oil price collapse. Um, I have to say, Waffet didn't get in. He has decimated his position. I think he even reduced it to zero, but he is, um, enthusiastic about Philips, uh, Philips uh, 66. This is a refinery that actually benefits from the falling oil prices , because the raw material costs for a refinery are the oil price, and the end product is then, for example, motor oil or gasoline from the gas station, e.g., Jet gas station, which is Philips 666 and in which he has a strong stake.
If we look at the Holders, we can see that Buffett was with his Berkway. How much does he own here? Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder in Philips 66 with 15%. He owns 78 million shares worth 6 billion (6.2 billion). Yes, that's how financial genius Warren Buffett works. So he buys boring companies with an extremely good dividend policy, dividend history, something like Johnson & Johnson, or something like Wisen, or for a long time Warereif, Campbell, or American Express, and uh, he likes good dividend payers; he prefers to buy in giants, or in crashes, or in recessions, for value.
Essen is a bargain hunter, and when he's sure of something, he gets involved aggressively. For example, he invested a billion in Coca-Cola many decades ago and was still one of Coca-Cola's biggest shareholders. Bway has 400 million shares, just under 10% of the share capital, here in 9.25 worth 18 billion.
And Coca-Cola pays a nice dividend; they make aggressive stock buybacks. That 's exactly what Waren Buffet likes. Uh, it's a stable business, a strong, um, strong, uh, strong brand, and so on. I see now that the volume is full. Okay, so long. Okay, congratulations to the winners of the book. Bye.
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