저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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빅테크 'Magnificent Seven' 실적 시즌 중간 점검으로, 전체적으로는 혼조세지만 메타(Meta)가 가장 좋은 분기를 보였다는 결론. 테슬라: 헤드라인 수치는 양호했으나 비영업 항목(외환 헤지 등)에 기댄 이익, 3분기 생산 소폭 감소, 잉여현금흐름 약세가 나왔고 자율주행 슈퍼컴퓨터에 10억 달러 이상 지출 계획이 시장 우려를 키워 주가가 10% 하락. 진행자는 실적 자체는 아름답지 않지만 이 하락을 매수 기회로 봄. 알파벳·마이크로소프트: 두 회사 모두 매출·이익 상회. 클라우드는 MS Azure 26%, 구글 클라우드 28% 성장. 알파벳은 구글 검색 성장 가속과 유튜브 광고 안정화가 긍정적. 마이크로소프트는 AI 혜택이 모호한 반면 비용은 구체적이라는 시장 반응으로 하락, 2024년 마진 보합 전망이 주가를 눌렀으며 진행자는 이 조정을 매수 기회로 평가. 다만 일부 차익실현과 반독점 우려를 언급. 메타: 광고 매출 11% 성장(직전 분기 2.6%에서 가속), 다음 분기 15.5~24.5% 성장 가이던스 제시. AI로 애플 개인정보 제한을 우회해 타겟 광고 개선, 릴스 연매출 약 100억 달러로 급성장, 직원 약 25% 감원 등 비용 통제. 잉여현금흐름 약 110억 달러(예상 60억 달러 대비 상회), 자본지출 가이던스 30억 달러 하향. 연간 매출 성장 가이던스 중간값 약 20%. 올해 주가 약 159% 상승, 역사적 고점 384달러(2021년 9월) 회복 여지 언급. 메타버스 현금 소진은 여전히 리스크. 전체: 빅테크는 상반기 혼조, 메타가 최고 분기. 진행자는 메타를 여전히 성장 대비 저평가로 보고 상승 여력 긍정적으로 평가. 청취자 Q&A: 팔로알토 네트웍스는 최근 상승 후 다운그레이드가 있었으나 조금 더 매수 가능하다는 입장. 앱스 디지털터빈(APPS)은 연초 대비 32% 하락으로 성장 부족을 이유로 지금은 보류 권고.
다듬은 글
for most of the Year this park has been led by The Magnificent Seven Apple alphabet Amazon meta platforms Microsoft Nvidia and Tesla while the rallies broadened out over the last couple of months these seven stocks are still huge winners they're up anywhere from forty percent to 214 for the year but now we've entered our new season and it's time for these copies to justify these monster moves and their stocks just like the movie not all of them survived so far we've heard from Tesla Microsoft alphabet and meta platforms and they've been but I call them mixed bag with meta standing Head and Shoulders Above the Rest Tesla kicked things off last Wednesday and while the numbers the headline numbers were good there were plenty of hair on the corner Tesla's earnings people's fueled by non-operating items like games for foreign exchange Hedges management said their third quarter production would be down a little bit even as they reaffirm their full year forecast just gotta trust that they make up that production the fourth quarter the free cash flow came in much weaker than expected for the third string quarter and Wall Street didn't love it when Elon Musk talked about spending well over one billion dollars on super computers to fuel his autonomous driving Ambitions I believe in musk but wall Street's gotten skeptical which is why the stock tumbled 10 last Thursday the way I see it this is a buying opportunity even if the quarter wasn't exactly a thing a beauty next up this Tuesday we heard from alphabet and Microsoft Jefferson close well I think they had a lot of similarities the market loved the alphabet and loads Microsoft both companies delivered nice top and bottom line beats though both companies delivered solid results for the cloud infrastructure Vision Microsoft's Azure was up 26 and the much smaller Google Cloud up 28 both talked about their aai capabilities I liked it uh while also warning that bulking up on the AI business will be very expensive but if you had an alphabet stock were nearly six percent yesterday when martial stock sold off nearly four percent and it's still going lower why okay the biggest surprise positive price for outfit was actually from their advertising business after being data now for the past year Google search finally saw accelerating growth and what I have to say management also called the stabilization of the YouTube ad business that was a shocker to Me album is more or less an advertising place so if that batter business has bottom it makes a huge difference I've got to tell you I signed up today for the NFL the football package on on Google and I on YouTube and I find myself saying well I think a lot a lot of people play Fantasy I think it's going to be a home run for them now Microsoft's a software company they didn't get a big boat Boost from advertising at the same time Wall Street doesn't seem to like their AI talk the bear state bike so it's too vague about the potential benefits of AI while being very specific about the high cost of getting it now look Microsoft recently announced pricing for the company's new co-pilot AI assistant for Microsoft 365 products but they wouldn't commit to a launch date for co-pilot with CFO Amy Hood saying only that we probably wouldn't see the benefits from this business until the second half of the company's 2024 fiscal year that's the first half of the 2024 calendar year at the same time Marshalls made it clear that their margins would likely be flat in 2024 thanks to all the AI spending and that's what crushed the stocks I think they were way way too negative of course as I told members of the CMC investing Club I think the pullback in Microsoft represents a true buying up opportunity while you might want to sell part of your position outfit into the Stock's recent strength and for me some concerns about antitrust for my money the best quarter we got for the Magnificent Seven so far was from meta platforms which delivered a blowout set of numbers last night if the market hadn't turned down that you would have seen the stock up huge like alphabet this is an ad based business which is how meta could have an 11 Revenue growth this quarter up from 2.6 in the first quarter what an acceleration that is first time they had double digit Revenue growth since 2021 even better meta's guiding for 15.5 to 24.5 Revenue growth in the current quarter and that is huge the business benefited from the improved ad market like alphabet along with many more company specific catalysts higher engagement more time spent on meta's family of applications and the use of artificial intelligence which led to a 34 increase in the total number of AD impressions in the quarter all these companies love to talk about AI but argue I'd argue that Matt is the one that's seeing the biggest tangible benefit from this technology and I knew he was working closely attention while on this stuff and I told you that because they're using artificial intelligence to overcome Apple's privacy restrictions that allows them to provide better targeted ads on Facebook and Instagram this time they also explained how AI recommended posts from accounts that you don't follow has become the fastest growing category of content for Facebook's feed hence the big increase in user engagement and that's what I think Nvidia is really helping a lot we're seeing something similar at reels meta's Tick Tock killer which now has an annual revenue rate of 10 billion dollars that's up from around 3 billion just this fall that is a much faster adoption than anyone was looking for and I'm a huge reels fan and I didn't think they could do that what makes this quarter so remarkable is medicine tremendous Revenue growth at the same time that CEO Mark chainsaw Zuckerberg continues to put through Draconian cross cuts and that includes laying off roughly a quarter of the workforce that's how medic could put up a seven Cent earnings beat off a 291 basis and that number would have been even and higher for not for one time seven or eight million dollar restructuring charge the free cash flow came in at nearly 11 billion Wall Street was only looking for 6.05 billion now of course Matt is still doing lots of investing they're putting a ton of money into this metaverse which continues to just Hemorrhage cash but while investors might not love that it's a lot easier to look past those expensive Investments when the core business is putting money yet most important meta gave you a terrific forecast they're talking about roughly 20 Revenue growth at the midpoint of their guidance they cut their full year capital expenditure guidance by three billion dollars although that's mostly due to a push out of some Investments till next year now a lot of people gave up on this stock when it was getting obliterated last year but those who stuck with it like we did for my travel trust continue to be rewarded shares of 4.4 today Eve is a major averages sputtered and I got to tell you this stock could get was up much more at one point Met has now rallied 159 year-to-date it's up 254 from as low set last November there's still a long way to go until the stocks bump you up against 330 384 all-time high from September 2021.
but with a couple more quarters like this one that we got last night it might get get there sooner rather than later let me give you the bottom line here at the halfway point of Magnificent Seven earnings counter we've got a bit of a mixed bag although I like Tesla and Microsoft Wall Street certainly didn't like those quarters while alphabet and meta gave you clear widths that said so far Matt has delivered the best quarter by far in this group and I bet the stock still has a lot more up it's more upside given it's still incredibly low evaluation versus growth rate and a realization that someday someday soon maybe the metaverse will continue to burn through cash as it has been and it's supposed to do in the near future let's go to Chris in DC Chris Jim how's it going well Chris I don't know I didn't like the reversal late in the day it's got me a little concerned but let's see what happens tomorrow how about you I'm doing doing great so all right I have a uh 401K that I'm converting over to a Roth IRA right and I'm looking at a particular stock that's almost tripled over the last five years I'm curious what you think about pale outdoor Networks I think you're fine there was a downgrade today about Palo Alto from uh I believeco saying it's moved up too far too fast well you know what that's the kind of thing that says to me all right let it come in and buy a little more so what I'm going to tell you do is let it come in and buy a little more let's go to Jayden Arizona Jayden hey Kramer how's it going not bad Jayden how about you um terrific thank you for having me on the show very excited to be here thank you I got a quick question here for you um I'm looking at apps digital turbine and I've had this position for a while I'm either looking at it right now it's either by an opportunity or I could wait a little bit while to have it go down a lower to maybe buy more what are your thoughts okay um I'm gonna come out against that one uh that because I just think that there is I mean look at slow values but I don't think it has enough growth and it's down 32 for the year in a year that's very good that's very disconcerting to me let's hold off on that I don't think it might be the right thing for you all right now we've had a mixed bag so far from the members that Magnificent Seven Deadly reported earnings with meta being the standout from the group up to this point watch more minute money and clean my shoes with suit with Adco trying to wrap your head around the farm and AG this is standing across the globe well there's no better place to go than AGCO I'm seeing some headwinds that are shaking out in the farming sector where the company stop rest then there's site and then there's hindsight one will help you make money and the other could derail your investing strategy I'm sharing why this lesson is even more important during earnings season than ever and all your calls rapid fire tonight assistant the lighting round so stay with Kramer foreign foreign
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