저자: PaulGabriel · 외국인
요약 보기
Paul Gabriel 8가지 기준으로 엔비디아 재무 분석. 매출·순이익·FCF 성장률은 코로나 특수로 부풀려져 지속 불가능하다고 주장. 시가총액 5000억달러 대비 FCF 기준 적정가치 800억달러로 '고평가' 판단. 할인율 적용 시 적정주가 40달러대 중반 제시. 과매수 구간 진입, 일부 차익실현 권고. 구독 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to every money we're glad you joined us again today we are talking about nvidia we will head over to mo so handsome in his new red shirt uh we will head over to moe with trading after we look at the financials paul will walk us through his eight pillar process of looking at a company we will use our software to see the financial data behind nvidia the processing making company the leading designer of graphics processing units i'm reading this right off of our website which we'll talk about moving forward but paul your thoughts on uh um you know there's a lot of news about the graphics processors chip shortage with almost everything the phones teslas cars uh it's it's kind of bonkers out there what your thoughts on nvidia paul gabriel all right so first off follow us on instagram um helps us out a lot etc so um this is there's you'll see this from the data here so first off it's a 500 billion dollar company how long has nvidia been around for by the way let's find out a billion years max chart shows 2011.
okay so uh i mean 500 billion dollar company i mean this is big look at their revenue 22 that's 23 times sales even software businesses don't sell for that kind of multiple and it's in the indicated right here their five-year pe is 132. we want to see that less than 22.5 that's an x now seeing the one-year p at 74 versus the five-year 132 it tells me that there was a lot more profit in the last year than in previous years okay they're they're uh returning invested capital very high fourteen point eight percent if we wanted over nine percent so that's a check so so far one x one check look at this look at this dividend yield is this accurate point one percent adorable that's adorable but look at this free cash flow the last five year average is four billion last year they did 6.7 so again last year a lot of demand because people were staying home they had to use graphics cards etc they're gonna be a lot of demand for their products it's going to jump up so so far one check and one x the dividend is accurate and they were founded in 1993.
gotcha thanks uh pillar number three revenue growth we're looking for 8.34 to 22 billion that's the check mark but again look at last year 13 billion to 22 billion guys to me the apprehension is look at the revenue growth over the years and then all of a sudden one incident occurs coven and that's why it jumps up you have to discount that you have to realize that's not going to be a sustainable model right a lot of people spend a lot of money it's just like zoom a lot of people spend a lot of money on zoom etc and with the way the chips are going we if if you get a massive drop you would have to look at that differently also correct exactly the same thing yeah what pill are we on paul number four is net income growth pillar number four sorry 2.3 billion to 7 billion and again they did 3.4 billion to 7 billion in the one year they doubled in one year so again be apprehensive number five shares outstanding yes what's going on they're diluting 2.39 to 2.49 not the worst in the world but it's not the worst you're right it's not awful but it's still increasing their shares outstanding over the last 10 years they're pretty similar 2.48 to 2.49 um so now the next one guys is we want to look at the five-year free cash flow and compared to debt what i do is i take the five-year free cash flow of four billion i multiply it by five i come up with the number of 20 billion dollars i want their total long term liabilities to be under that 20 billion why very simple are you more likely to stay in business or more likely to go bankrupt if you have less debt or more debt does this help our sort of crash proof thought process with a company that's actually a great point yeah i mean in any sort of recession it's not crash because the stock market shouldn't be the business the business they're going to sell chips with their stock is a billion dollars a share of one dollar share but what it is about recessions if we hit a recession and it is hard by the way for companies with these kind of margins to go under unless they have excessive debt so we look at 20 billion dollar number we go to the balance sheet we scroll to the bottom 13 billion dollars in long-term liabilities so what this means is they could pay off if they just replicate their free cash flow the last five years of free cash for the next five years they could pay off all their debt in about three years time so imagine you at home that you had all your long-term liabilities your car payment your car loan your house loan anything long-term and you could pay that all off in three years from your income pretty good it'd be really good right yeah so those are the things that they consider there pillar number seven is the grand mama of them all free cash flow growth over the past five i'm sure it's up right paul 1.94 to 6.67 and folks yep we'll explain this to you we add this line to make the math very easy for you because no cash flow statement actually has this line but cash flow is cash from operations lesser capital expenditures we do this for you and listen i also love the the capital expenditures aren't some huge chunk it's less than 20 of their actual um cash from operations so it's not a capital intensive business then what we do is to come up with a value 4 billion we multiply by 20 as a starting point 80 billion value we want to see the value of the company under that number so this is a definite x the stock needs to fall a lot the stock the market cap is 500 billion we want less we want it worth less than 80 billion as a starting point to me this just says overpriced move on because the growth i don't think is going to be similar over the next five or seven five or ten years that it was last year and people are probably excited by seeing the big jump in revenue big jump in free cash flow people will storm right into it but just like if carnival cruise line since carnival cruise line didn't have any income you would sit there and say it's worth zero it's not worth zero they're going to be a point when they come back to business same thing here their their free cash flow is not going to be sustainable long term if you're looking to trade this stock at a quicker basis mo i had a drink with one of my buddies last night who joined the bid and asked oh did he and uh he paid for two years of the bid mask in his first month of trading is that typical no you may lose money but he almost he almost bursts into laughter at that idea of actually losing money when he follows the rules it's funny when you follow the rules even even when you do lose you're going to mitigate risk i mean that's just how it works the whole point of this you are going to lose two or three out of five times the point is when you make those losses they're not detrimental to you and if they're detrimental to you you're doing something wrong and you're not following the rules this looks like in the overbought region yeah it's in the overbought but i mean a lot of people in the bit nest started back here in april with this trade ran it up through the sweet spot you had a little bit of a blip here in in the middle in the beginning of the summer but since then i mean you really ha seth you haven't dropped below 80 meaning that you could have stayed in this thing taking profits here and there added back here and there but at this point this is our all-time high right here so it's getting a little dicey if i was in this position right now and i owned it i would take some profits off the table just because you're getting that rollover right there doesn't mean exit the position it just means take some profits off the table let's go over to swing trading chart i mean this is looking really good um this is something that i might keep my eye on actually you're coming through the sweet spot very nicely as soon as i get that yellow line in the sweet spot as well i'll be on it make sure you get good volume you're going to probably be able to push up through the 50 and 25 day moving average and it's as simple as that you'll be like seth's friend if you want to access this data you can go to y charts and pay hundreds of dollars a month or you can get it through us every money software the software that's behind paul the tools that we use on the show is available through everythingmoney.com paul tell them what to get baby you get everything here on a mobile app you get the eight pillars you get 30 years of financial data you get the stock analyzer tool you get news you get the community of people to talk to this is unbelievable it's only 90 cents per day so if you are serious about money and investing which we all should be this will pay for itself hundreds of times over 90 cents per day our competitors are 200 a month 200 a month and 35 dollars a month they don't give you anything compared to what we do and we give you exclusive content every day other stock analysis that you don't get to you don't get on youtube so again go to everythingmoney.com or patreon and sign up below so now this is the hard one a big chunk of these revenue growth numbers are skewed because of last year so i want to go a lot lower do i think that the world of graphics cards is growing as the world becomes more developed yes i do i'm putting 8 12 and 16 revenue growth share change even though they had a 3.7 i'm gonna go one 0.5 and zero profit margin free cash flow margin and my assumptions on p e and free cash flow now look at this stuff these are the pe and free cash flow and i dropped them down because guys this is a big company they shouldn't be selling for 75 times uh earnings and free cash flow they're established they've been around for 30 years this is not a startup anymore okay and these and these growth rates don't justify 80 times free cash flow so i decreased it i put 15 12 and a half 10 percent on my annual return the stock is currently 210 and no surprise at all i want to be in the mid 40s you might sit there and say that's not gonna happen okay that was two years ago yeah and i look at it going guys but every investment's a present value future cash flow you might sit there and say well stop the stock bull the stocks over long periods of time will chase earnings and free cash flow that's it now obviously other factors do affect it like share change etc but all things equal the more revenue the more profit the more free cash flow is generated the more valuable the business is because if i came to you and said hey you can buy this business for a hundred dollars it's gonna give you ten dollars a year in free cash flow or you can buy this business for a hundred dollars it's giving you one dollar a year free cash flow now is that enough to make a decision no but that one dollar better grow a ton for you to really justify it this growth isn't this already established business with billions of dollars in revenue this is going to be very hard for them to grow 20 30 a year for long extended periods of time in the info this is how we invest in how we think we're trying to teach a process my process for a decade was just looking at nvidia stock at 200 watching other youtubers or listening to news and saying it's going to go up then buying and hoping if this resonates with you our process uh feel free to join our community uh you can get access to software and you can start thinking this way it'll take some time it's a new language and takes some discipline but uh i i love hearing your process about this paul and it really helps moving forward with life to have a real grasp about how i shouldn't be investing my money so welcome that's our video thanks for watching final thumbs up you know i love you guys
댓글 0