저자: SmartSilverStacker · 외국인
요약 보기
은 가격 상승과 연준·옐런의 완화 기조가 인플레이션을 키울 것이라며 은 매수를 계속한다는 결론이다. 옐런 발언 해석: 추가 부양 없이는 실업률이 높게 유지되며, 1.9조 달러 부양책이 내년까지 완전고용 회복에 도움이 될 것이라는 주장을 소개하고 진행자는 이에 회의적이다. 연준·금리: 파월 의장이 실업 개선을 위해 금리를 낮게 유지하고 인플레이션을 감수할 의향을 밝혔다고 언급. 미국 10년물 금리는 30일간 30% 이상 상승했으나 연준이 금리를 낮게 유지하려 할 것이라고 봄. 연준은 월 1,200억 달러 이상 채권을 매입 중이라고 언급. 부채·유동성: 부채 부담이 커 금리 상승 시 국채 이자 감당이 불가능해질 것이며, 완화가 계속되면 자산 거품이 꺼지며 금융 붕괴가 올 수 있다는 시각을 제시. 마이클 버리 인용: 버리가 MMT 성향 정책, 부채/GDP와 M2 증가를 근거로 미국에 바이마르식 초인플레이션 위험을 경고했다고 소개. 그는 과거 2008년 위기를 예측했던 인물로 언급. 역사 사례 인용: 바이마르 독일 인플레이션 문서(Jens Parsons 'Dying of Money')를 인용해 호황기의 투기 열풍, 부의 쏠림, 범죄 증가, 최종 붕괴 과정을 설명하며 현재와 유사하다고 암시. 진행자 전망: 경제가 재개방되며 화폐 유통속도가 올라가면 상당한 인플레이션이 올 것으로 보고 있으며, 이 때문에 은을 계속 매집한다고 밝힘. 리스크: 영상 내 구체적 손절·목표가 제시는 없고 인플레이션 시나리오에 기반한 장기 보유 논리 중심. 마지막으로 가족 금 유산 관련 홍보성 언급이 있음. 종목 방향: 은(실물) 보유·매수 지속(상승 기대), 금 관련 언급은 가족 유산 홍보 수준. 단기 가격 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey everybody smart silver stacker here we had a nice move up in the price of silver on monday up 70 cents to close above 28 dollars i think this was at least in part because of an interview that janet yellen gave on cnn today and she made the claim that without further stimulus unemployment levels will remain elevated and the unemployment levels would be a key metric for the new administration going forward she also stated that she believed the new 1.9 trillion dollar coveted relief package would help get us back to full employment levels by next year i kind of doubt that just this bill alone is going to get us back to full employment levels i'm not really sure that any amount of stimulus is going to help the fundamental economic problems that we're facing but i am fairly sure that what all of the stimulus will do is inflate the money supply and eventually drive asset prices up and if you recall i mentioned in a recent video that fed chairman jerome powell had recently stated his intention to improve the employment situation even if that meant keeping interest rates low and ignoring inflation so i suspect that we'll be hearing more from the likes of janet yellen and jerome powell about how important it is to maintain this dovish easy monetary policy because of unemployment of course i'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that if money isn't pumped into the economy and more debt created and interest rates kept down in perpetuity then our enormous debt load will become completely unserviceable and the huge asset bubbles we're experiencing will pop and the whole financial house of cards will come crashing down nope it has nothing to do with that it's because of unemployment that's the reason for the perpetual dovishness and speaking of keeping interest rates down another thing that's been in the news is rising interest rates and if we look at the 30-day chart for the yield on the u.s 10-year treasury we can see that it's moved up over 30 percent in that time period which is a huge move for the 10-year note but i'm sure that the fed is committed to doing whatever it will take to keep interest rates down if they go too high it's dangerous because it could spook markets and also if rates rise the massive u.s national debt will become impossible to service i mentioned in a recent video that the fed is already buying at least 120 billion dollars in bonds each month so if interest rates are rising despite this intervention from the fed just imagine the amount of debt monetization they're going to commit to in the future when rates really start to tick up and remember jerome powell said that he would be willing to allow inflation to rise in order to combat unemployment well michael bury who you might recognize as the investor who made a boatload of money by calling the 2008 housing crisis and who was portrayed in the movie the big short recently made a pretty interesting call for weimar style hyperinflation here in the us and here is a tweet that he put out the other day the u.s government is inviting inflation with its mmt tinged policies brisk debt to gdp and m2 increases while retail sales and pmi stage a v recovery trillions more stimulus and reopening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket hashtag paradigm shift and in this same tweet he links to a document titled dying of money lessons of the great german and american inflations by jens parson i'll go ahead and include that link in the description here it's worth a read he then went on to tweet several excerpts from this document which i'll go ahead and read for you the life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics one was the great wealth at least of those favored by the boom many great fortunes sprang up overnight the cities had an aimless and wanton youth prices in germany were steady and both business and the stock market were booming the exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world on inflation's eve side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money looking in but not able to enter the crime rate soared accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace to no visible purpose and their fears from watching their own precarious position slip while others grew so conspicuously rich almost any kind of business could make money business failures and bankruptcies became few the boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the non-essential and ineffective otherwise would have been called out speculation alone while adding nothing to germany's wealth became one of its largest activities the fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market the volumes of turnover and securities on the berlin boris became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork and the boris was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog robinhood down all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough by november of 1923 to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket that was the spectacular part of the collapse but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow germany's inflation cycle ran not for a year but for nine years representing eight years of gestation and only one year of collapse and finally he posted this message people say i didn't warn last time i did but no one listened so i warned this time and still no one listens but i will have proof i warned well michael i'm listening and the rest of you stackers out there probably are too if you've seen my inflation 2021 forecast video you know my take on this i believe that as we see the economy begin to open up and the velocity of money begins to move in an upward direction we're going to see significant inflation so i think michael bury is definitely on to something and that is why i am still stacking silver if you enjoyed this video but you'd like to see something a little more uplifting than the doom and gloom news stories about our failing economy then check out this video i just made about a really cool gold bullion family heirloom that my grandfather picked up in thailand more than 50 years ago a great example of generational wealth thanks for watching everyone don't forget to like comment and subscribe i'll catch you next time smart silver stacker out
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