Northern Trust's Abdur Nimeri and Ed Yardeni on market risks from inflation and rising rates

요약 보기

결론: 채권시장은 인플레이션 우려를 제대로 반영하고 있으며, 인플레이션은 2021년 내내 지속되기보다 일시적일 가능성이 크다는 시각이다. 채권시장 및 금리 상황 - 미국 10년물 금리는 8월 이후 상승 추세이며, 연준의 국채 매입이 없었다면 금리는 현재보다 훨씬 높았을 것이라는 평가. - 소매판매 5.5%, 실업률 하락 등 경기 개선 신호는 있으나 상승 궤도를 확인할 명확한 증거는 아직 부족. 인플레이션 전망 - Nimeri: 인플레이션이 2021년 전체 기간 지속되지는 않을 것으로 봄. 공급 제약(코로나 관련 생산 중단)이 점차 해소되며 상방 압력이 완화될 것. - Yardeni: 향후 6~12개월간 인플레이션이 2%를 넘어설 가능성이 높으며, 연준은 2.5~3%까지 용인할 것으로 예상. 장기적으로는 생산성 향상이 물가를 억제할 것. 연준 및 정책 - 연준 의장 파월은 실업률을 실질적으로 약 10% 수준으로 보고 있어 노동시장이 아직 취약하다고 판단. - 실질 GDP 및 주요 거시지표는 V자 회복을 보여 팬데믹 이전 수준에 근접. - 하반기에 추가 부양이 경기를 과열시킬 우려가 채권시장의 불안 요인. 투자 전략 - 인플레이션 충격 완화를 위해 인프라, 천연자원 등 보완적 자산군으로 포트폴리오 재배분을 권고. - 고품질 소득 및 성장 요소를 포함해 완충 장치를 마련하면 2021년 중 큰 폭의 물가 상승도 견딜 수 있다는 입장. 리스크 - 하반기 인플레이션 기대 상승과 과열 우려, 백신 보급 속도 및 부양책 규모에 따른 불확실성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. and i'll start with you we're trying to make sense of what the bond market is telling investors and yes there are signs of the economy improving retail sales at 5.5 percent the unemployment rate uh dropping over the last couple of months uh but there's still no clear evidence that this economy is in an upward trajectory so i'm wondering whether the argument around inflation running too hot is premature i don't think so i think the bond markets got it right i think the banu lecture would be at 2 today if it wasn't for all the intervention that the fed has been doing for the past year for the past year the feds bought basically all the bonds and notes that the treasury has been issuing so uh i think that's kept the bond yield down but nevertheless it's it's been trending higher since august and uh i mean you're you're right about the the economy still being frail when you look at the labor market uh and that's what the fed chair is uh focusing on is uh he he believes that the unemployment rate for all practical purposes is really more like ten percent than six percent but when you look at real gdp and other macroeconomic data we've had a v-shaped recovery and and many of these indicators are almost back to where they were before the pandemic so they've done a very good job up to here i think the bond market's concerned about more stimulus possibly overheating the economy in the second half of the year especially with the likelihood that there'll be some semblance of normal once the vaccines really do kick in abdur we heard uh some of introductory remarks from powell from steve liesman there but how do you think powell handles the questions around inflation in today's hearing does he acknowledge it or downplay the risk and say that if it does heat up the fed is ready to act i think in general the fed will be radioactive it does heat up our expectation is that as we're seeing an upward trend in inflation it's not likely to persist the entire the duration of 2021.

02. we believe that repositioning portfolios into more uh what we call complementary asset class like infrastructure to help to insulate an investor's portfolio from inflationary pressure along with natural resources as well and provide high quality income and growth components to the multi-cloud portfolio so we still see inflation as being sort of transitory and sort of at some point stabilizing um and actually if you buffer the portfolio appropriately clients and investors should be able to weather any type of significant increase in inflation as we move through 2021.

03. abdur why why do you think you expect inflation to be transitory um if we look at some of the supply demand demand dynamics one thing that's driving sort of this upward pressure is we've had a limited supply um due to coronavirus sort of stoppage and as real that the growth expectations of coming in the demand cycle will be probably fairly high and outstrip that but at some point suppliers will get in line fairly quickly and start to actually produce and actually come in line with demand and so it should dampen out slightly as we move through into 2021.

04. a lot of this is a kobit 19 issue um and so as that damp as we get better um inoculation better vaccinations better vaccination rates we should see pressure start to actually come down on inflation as we move through into the later parts of the year and add similar question to you you mentioned the second half of the year in inflation fears what is your prognostication in terms of whether we'll actually get it well i think we are going to see inflation finally it's sustainably for about six to 12 months go over two percent this has been the fed's wish since uh january 2012 when they officially said that they want inflation to be around two percent now uh in august of last year they said they'd actually like to overshoot that because they've undershot it for so long so i think the fed will tolerate two and a half maybe even three percent in the second half of the year and that'll be the year-over-year comparisons um but beyond that i kind of agree that uh productivity really should kick in here to uh keep a lid on inflation sort of on a longer term secular basis but on the near term basis i think the bond markets got it right