Cathie Wood Bitcoin ETF Marketing War Coming🔥

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결론: 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인은 올해 가능성이 높지만, 승인 후 시장 점유를 가를 마케팅 경쟁이 핵심이며 단기 비트코인은 약세 흐름으로 본다. SEC의 그레이스케일 판결 항소 여부는 불확실하며, 항소 포기 또는 새로운 사건 제기 등 여러 경로가 가능하다고 설명한다. 블룸버그 애널리스트들은 2023년 승인 가능성을 95%, 2024년 승인 가능성을 75~95%로 보았고, 진행자는 올해 승인 가능성이 커지고 있다고 본다. 아크(ARK)의 캐시 우드는 SEC 연구진과 소통이 있었고 비트코인 1:1 콜드스토리지 기반 상품이 승인 논리가 될 수 있다고 말했다. 승인 후 ETF 경쟁은 마케팅 싸움이 될 것이며, 교육형 리서치 콘텐츠와 인플루언서 전략이 중요하다고 본다. 블랙록은 중량급 영업 방식을, 아크는 교육 중심 마케팅을 쓸 것으로 전망한다. 캐시 우드의 2030년 기관 배분 전망(기본 6.82억, 강세 1.48백만 수준의 금액 전망)에 대해 진행자는 6년 내 달성에 회의적이라고 평가한다. 진행자는 비트코인 단기 추세가 하락세이며 26,000달러 하회 가능성을 보고 있어 숏 쪽에 기울어 있다고 밝힌다. 이더리움도 비트코인 흐름을 따를 것으로 보며, 솔라나와 아발란체에 관심을 표한다. 리스크로는 거시 환경, 세계 분쟁, 규제 강화 움직임(엘리자베스 워런 등)을 꼽는다. 캐시 우드 발언에 대해서는 진행자 본인이 우드의 혁신 낙관론에 일부 동의하면서도 정치적 역풍을 강조한다. 블랙록이 ESG 용어를 투자자 이니셔티브에서 제거한 점을 현물 ETF 전략의 변화 신호로 해석한다. 제이피모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼의 '가장 위험한 시기' 발언에 대해서는 현재 위기가 지도력 부족 때문이라고 평가한다.

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01. there's one thing that is going to cause the ETFs to succeed or fail and part of that is going to be built around marketing that's what we're going to break down today who's going to win the marketing battle the epic battle that is coming in we're going to break it all down for you my name is Paul bar welcome back in Tech bath all right so let's get started today if you guys are not part or have seen our Market sentiment index go check it out it's over on Paul Baron Network just visit our website this is one of the tools that we use that make Market predictions easy couple of things you guys can get there is our token list which is our daily update on the top 10 along with all your friendly tokens eth Bitcoin Etc and then also you get the dashboard a full trafi sentiment where we break down the S&P as well as gold and and we're also taking a look at nft sentiment as well coming in soon so you guys get a chance to take a look at a lot of different tools that can help you on your ta if you're using TA or if you're just looking at long-term trends check it out I'll leave a link down below but if you want to check it out just go to Paul Baron network.com click up there at the top it says Market sentiment index and you'll find more about that all right so let's get into the topics today and one of the things I want to open with of course is what happens if the SEC doesn't appeal gray skill spot Bitcoin ETF ruling now there's many analysts that are looking at this and there's a lot of things that can happen here with the SEC item one is they could just say all right forget it we're going to let this kind of roll out and maybe automatically this goes through the process of becoming an ETF highly unlikely they've got till late tonight to be able to either file an appeal which they could still do that would set it back again to be able to put in place the option for Black Rock and others to maybe get their ETFs done and approved they could also take a third turn here and that is not file an appeal and come at them with a completely new case saying hey well yeah you won that but we think there is this going on so there's a lot of options here this is not a slam dunk for grayscale at all and it definitely is going to uh I think affect what's happening in the markets for sure in the article it says bakunas of course balunas said an appeal was unlikely though there could be still other hurdles there's always a chance of something else happening kind of my point James safer his partner over there at Bloomberg said that the secc attempt to deny new grounds was unlikely I kind of disagree with that because it's a very difficult needle to thread but it could find ways to keep delaying I kind of think they could come in with a new idea now are they that creative I guess that's the question maybe James is right I don't know that if they are that creative so we'll see other things in the news today I want to hit on and this is the Bitcoin is the only neutral internet money and what I mean by that this was something that of course David Marcus has talked about for quite some time Light spark uh also an X PayPal guy we showed a clip from David Marcus on the what Bitcoin did podcast the other day and he was trying to defend Bitcoin as a payment system but the idea is is that you've got to be able to make some changes yeah I said changes for Bitcoin for it to really become something big in the article it says Bitcoin has more regulatory Clarity than any other crypto asset out there I would agree Fidelity uh Investments has Bitcoin denominated 401 sure there are a bunch of spotted ETFs yes and eventually it'll happen further in the article says I feel like the land of All Digital assets ones you can create ones that already exist is by far and arguably may be an order of magnitude better equipped to resist all of these types of attacks and challenges now what they're talking about is the the scenario will that will play out with Bitcoin as a payment system my argument will always be is that it has to be fast which means it can't be on the layer that it's on now you've got to be able to either look at side chains or other opportunities we've had Paul stz on with us and he's L to Labs which has talked about what what side chains might be and some other Solutions out there in the market that have tried to figure out whether or not Bitcoin could go this direction but this is important because it plays into the role of adoption and adoption is going to be a part of ETFs ETFs who is going to win the race that's what we're going to try to break down for you guys today further in this this was a tweet right here from Eric balunis Arc has just filed an update updated version of its spot ETF perspectus the SEC emailed issues a few weeks ago with comments questions about their S1 that they wanted to address so it's very possible Arc has addressed all that was in that filing and they're going to go look through it now so likely is there could have been some changes and it might reveal some questions as the SEC is positioning this I think this is actually good news because I think the SEC is now communicating with these guys and that has been a little bit of a different of opinion on how they've approached in the past maybe there is an opportunity of how this actually gets done I want to go to this first clip and this is Kathy Woods talking about when an ETF might happen listen in you know we know the research people at the SEC and they know what they're talking about they are really good we've met uh the head of finhub now ours would be backed by Bitcoin one for one in Cold Storage at coinbase that that's why graay scale has won its case it is that argument and some of the research uh that we believe is percolating up to those Commissioners might uh be getting through to them and uh might be the grounds now for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF most people would say it will happen early next year but it could happen this year all right so just remember that the Bloomberg guys are all on this potentially happening this year a 75% chance still for 2024 95% chance or 2023 A9 95% chance for 2024 so I'm kind of in the camp I'm getting more convinced in the camp that this is the year it may actually occur now could there be some things that you know kind of these Grace onean events that could occur between now and the end of the year with everything that's happening worldwide okay maybe that's a possibility but if things go on course there there could be a next step so what that brings on is the next question how and who would win the battle it's going to be a marketing battle so listen to what Kathy had to say about marketing her ETF and we don't think that that the SEC will approve just one uh they will probably approve a group of them and that means it will become a marketing battle and and we do hope that uh our research how much we uh you know give away our research mostly because uh we feel it very important to educate it's one of our mission and values we hope hope that that uh that helps us as we uh hopefully being one of those approved go out and start marketing all right so I think her point there is education is going to be the marketing tool that's kind of a I don't want to say it but it's a kind of a standard process that I think all complicated products need to go about in terms of marketing through education and media maybe not ads but you know being able to get people up whether you're doing podcast or you're doing interviews ask me anything those kind of things all or getting in with influencers I mean that's the other option that I think they'll probably take if you look at vanc they have already started this this is one of their advertisements right here on just EPA this is on the futures for ethereum and and this is an active ad in fact this ad plays on our own channel often so it's already showing that maybe this tool is working they wouldn't be advertising out there on YouTube if this was not working obviously they're advertising right here on um Twitter as well so I don't know I think this is going to be uh the winner is either going to do it two ways one is super creative they're going to win through marketing Super Creative or they're going to win through just heavy lifting which I think is more of the Black Rock model where heavy lifting mean Communications out to the investors and their asset class managers and going in directly kind of ground assault type approach that may be the thing for sure I want to go over to another clip here this is her marketing strategy boiled down listen in we are partnered with 21 shares 21 shares is the largest crypto ETP provider in the world and they have put in place an infrastructure that is proven our research is the most prolific I mean we our first Bitcoin uh uh blog no it was a white paper was in 2015 I think we've proven our stripes and and we are offering so many services the Bitcoin monthly crypto brainstorm which is monthly featuring people who are working in they're sort of in the background they are making this happen all right so uh looking at 21 shares a little deeper you know if that's going to be one of their marketing partners then you've got you know crypto made easy but they're only talking about you know what uh 9,000 people on Twitter so that's probably not a good marketing strategy and then you look at their link share here uh their link tree and you kind of see a little bit more about what they're doing here in terms of their Market Outlook crypto made easy on the website learn about crypto for free these are Basic Marketing elements I'm sorry but I don't think this is going to win the marketing War I think that Arc is going to have to get much more creative and much more effective at groundwork on being able to win this because remember you're going to be hitting one investors that are already somewhat aware but not not completely aware of what Bitcoin can be but more importantly what crypto is as an overall project and that's the challenge that I think a lot of people face all right so further into this I want to go to her podcast she she had the other day this was Back to Basics debunking some of bitcoin's biggest misconceptions so this was an interview that I want you to listen in on we pulled a clip from it and it's kind of intriguing because as I scan down you'll see here was all the people that were on it Chief TR strategy Officer Jason Jameson Lop he's been on our show before Eric Herman co-founder and CEO of gridless uh you had quite a few people in here that were very astute in Bitcoin and the theory behind what Bitcoin brings to the market they were trying to convince Dr art laugher who is an American Economist and probably her hero matter of fact I know it is because she's said it many times art laugher is the one they're trying to convince here listen to the marginal cost of creating a Bitcoin is going to escalate dramatically over time until that 21 million did I get it right this time but as you get closer and closer to that the cost will on the margin will be higher and higher and higher and that Malawi as you say won't be able to afford it even with all no no but as as Eric can attest it's not so for example a lot of people have free electricity so if you have a river that you're not paying for your electricity well we we should probably drop on the on this part I mean I you know when you say Costless energy I don't believe you for a second uh and it's surely not Costless if it were it' be everywhere and no one oil would be a tenth of a penny a gallon maybe just to finish it off and maybe we didn't start in the right place with energies and but maybe Eric you can other variables that really do excite you all right so I think that kind of showcases the point is that if you're getting into now granted this is an economist that understands the markets definitely but investors understand this too so you've got to be able to come to Market with a very sellable case and you have to be able to answer the push back that are going to happen in fact those are one of the selling and marketing tactics that you have to already know what the push backs are going to be so that you have the isolation of response or the rebuttal to be able to come back and sell it to them so there's a there's a challenge here now the alternative method is the method that I think Black Rock will take which is just the heavy lifting model notice though that black rock has removed the term ESG from their initiative around their investors so they're already starting to sidestep away from that something that I talked to Eric balunas about specifically around Black Rock removing that I think that's a strategy that is going to lean into to what's happening with a Bitcoin uh ETF so all of this could be playing into a very interesting spot right here let's go to clip five this is uh Kathy Wood's prediction listen in the base case 682,000 and the bull case 1.48 million but I think the institutional allocation to Bitcoin in the base case what institutions do they start with 1% and then they migrate to two and then they migrate to five so I think in this one it's two and a half% for the base case uh when there's a new asset class it tends to end up in the five to six% range this happened uh to real estate uh it happened to private Equity Venture Capital which is now much more than uh 6% in many Institution uh funds uh it happened to the whole category of uh Emerging Markets all right so there's a lot of things to break down on what she just said there that first of all I I want to compare this to the issue of her statement toward real estate and other investment markets including private equity and Venture Capital those kind of things those are known known investment instruments the Bitcoin is not a known instrument so the takeup I feel is going to be much more you know Intrepid than it is going to be in terms of just a blowout now people are going to they're going to test it they're going to say yeah let's do something with it the 1% is probably more in reality the 2 and a half% I just don't see that now could that happen by 2030 that's only six years away guys that's only six years look back at where six years were and try to you know forecast what that might look like with an ETF with the potential of a lot more competition coming in the digital assets p which which is where I think we're going to see most of this kind of play out especially in this kind of land grab for what digital assets are going to look like from investors that are going to go in this direction so there's a lot there that gets into it I know go back to the Chart there I just want to kind of look at something real quick so I I get the you know the very base case very very base case 258 the you know the bull case there at 1.4 but kind of that middle okay maybe the 2030 base case you got a bare case at 258 the base case is 682 all right so my point is is that yeah I just don't know I don't know if I agree with those numbers just yet something would big would have to happen from an innovation standpoint now maybe I agree with Kathy I think Innovation does shift markets it has done that in other Technologies within it but has it happened in six years now this is the financial Market it's a little different than an uptake from a retail market so anyway we'll get into further let's talk about Innovation winning this is Kathy talking about that disruptive in ation will scale and this includes Bitcoin will scale from somewhere in the 10 to trillion 10 to 15 trillion dollar um uh range today uh up to 200 trillion in the next five to 10 years so many people think Rising rates uh will kill a strategy like ours and that's how the stocks have been treated uh but truth will win out Innovation solves problems I know this is very hard to imagine given oil prices are back near $100 but Innovation solves problems get on the right side of change there's so much hope so much opportunity and it's going to be so exciting I wish for once Kathy Wood would come on our show okay Kathy if you hear this today we invite you to come on our show because I think there are some things that you're saying that are totally right but at the same time Innovation is not hard to adopt in fact it's easy to adopt think once that it's proven the problem that you will have and I think this is the biggest challenge we face as crypto investors is the tide that we're facing that we have to overcome innovation in many cases did not face the kind of tide that we're dealing with right now in crypto it's a hard one this is going to be a slugfest in the coming years what I mean by that is this right here here's Elizabeth Warren there's a growing bipartisan Coalition of senators pushing to crack down on on crypto Finance crimes and it's time to act with urgency to ensure law enforcement has the resources and authority to protect innocent people now this is the kind of thing people that I'm talking about you these people will use this as a tool of misinformation to be able to go directly at what's happening in the digital assets field this is the kind of war that you're going to be waging and Innovation is not necessarily going to win that the only thing that is going to win that is your vote you're going to be able to vote this in either you're to vote for the right candidate politically to be able to get these crazies in Capitol Hill to reshift their thinking because they have made their decision and the sides have been drawn here you need to be on the right side I think the right side is understanding what we are facing in Capitol Hill that's reality you may not like it but that's reality and I know Kathy's probably going to be talking about that anyway let's go further JP Morgan let's see here we got JP Morgan CEO warning oh we are living in the most dangerous times this is Jamie Diamond many of the proposed solutions that work before under better conditions are not accomplishing the expected results the experts struggle to find the right path to follow this may be the most dangerous time in the world as it's seen in decades I would agree with Jamie but the only reason we are in these times is because of the leaderships that have led us into these times let's look at the Outlook going forward guys we'll jump over to our amsi which is gives us kind of a rundown here we'll go to the Daily for you guys so you can kind of squeeze in we have been looking at a little bit of a downtrend on bitcoin over the past few days I expect that is going to potentially see a sub 26k is what I'm looking at I'm on I'm a little bit on the short side right now of course now granted there could still be some things happening from a macro standpoint especially around these conflicts that are happening worldwide that could shift this around a little bit so I'm watching it very closely eth of course kind of following in the line of Bitcoin a little bit further in terms of a deeper cut in terms of bits Trend and then also xrps pretty much trading in that range right there not a whole lot I am watching salana as a potential opportunity again now salana of course remember they've got breakpoint happening later this uh month so there could be some big deals going there and if you are looking at Avalanche this is one that I still like very much so because of what they can do in this web two to web 3 conversion you probably heard me talking about if you haven't checked out our Avalanche videos go check them out we have a full playlist so uh make sure and check it out just go to our YouTube channel for that all right guys uh if you're not in the diamond Circle get in it's one of the best places to go it is the place for additional content we have podcasts over there additional ta all kinds of cool stuff that you can only get as a member of the diamond Circle it's free to start so join click the link down below if you want to catch me on X it's at Paul bar we'll catch you next time right here on Tech bath