저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 변동성 속에서도 장기 관점을 유지하고 이 시기를 과도한 공포로 보기보다 좋은 뉴스를 과소평가하는 국면으로 본다. [시장 대응 및 투자 태도] 본인은 블룸버그 단말기를 켜지 않고 주식 앱도 열지 않으며, 주간 손익에서 상단 수치만 확인한다고 밝힘. 10년 단위로 생각하는 벤처 투자자는 단기 변동성을 무시할 수 있다고 주장. [벤처/초기 투자 시장] 최근 솔라 딜 2억2800만 달러, 추가 딜 4500만 달러 투자 사실을 언급. 거래 종료가 길어지고 실사가 재개되며 적정 밸류에이션 논의가 건강해졌다고 평가. 후기 단계의 과열(100배 밸류에이션)은 끝났고 현재 60~80배 수준에 거래가 이뤄진다고 언급. [경기 및 고용] 비농업 고용이 크게 나왔으나 임금 인플레이션은 상승하지 않음. 최근 실적 발표들에서 좋은 뉴스를 무시하는 단계에 들어섰다고 판단. [지정학 및 연준] 전쟁 리스크는 과도하게 반영됐으며 세계대전 수준은 아니라고 봄. 파월의 3월 25bp 인상은 기정사실이고, 데이터 의존적 기조와 러시아 제재에 따른 유동성 공급 가능성을 들어 연준이 완화적으로 전환할 가능성을 제시. [리스크 및 반론] 원자재(옥수수 bu당 760달러, 350달러에서 급등), 유가(캘리포니아 갤런당 5달러 이상)의 파급효과와 연쇄 부도 가능성을 우려하는 반론을 소개. 발언자는 과거 TARP, GFC, LTCM 사례를 들어 정부 개입으로 연착륙이 가능했다고 반박하며 '우리가 맹목적으로 움직이는 것은 아니다'라고 주장. [결론] 지금은 좋은 뉴스가 과소평가된 국면이며, 단기 공포보다 장기적 전진을 봐야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
in times of uncertainty you actually want to be deploying so you know uh i announced what was it last week i think it was a solar deal the solar deal you know i put 228 million dollars into this thing and then i did another deal i put 45 million bucks into this thing you guys know about which we haven't announced yet yep so um but other than that i've been literally uh white knuckled uh i don't like to open the stock app there's no point you know i feel like there's let's go to markets important discussion because the markets are so volatile during these kind of volatile information times times of you know information that's changing day to day intraday you know where do you guys think about kind of spending your time right now are you kind of just putting your head in the sand and saying we'll pull it out afterwards i mean how do you guys i mean well what's funny is like sax is curled up in a ball you know in times of in times of uncertainty you actually want to be deploying so you know uh i announced what was it last week i think it was a solar deal the solar deal you know i put 228 million dollars into this thing and then i did another deal i put 45 million bucks into this thing you guys know about which we haven't announced yet yep so um but other than that i've been literally uh white knuckled uh i don't like to open the stock app there's no point take some dramamine before you open your morgan stanley stock up the stock up and what's what's so funny is like my bloomberg terminal which is right beside me here on my desk i have not logged into it okay put it in a drawer unplug it yeah there's just no point like at the end of every week i get a report right kind of like our p l and i just look at the top line like connor always sends me the top line is like you know and in the last like eight weeks in a row we've lost one percent we've lost two percent we've lost three percent the time that sacks wishes he lost one percent i celebrated i got so drunk that night i was like this is where it really does help right sacks to think in decades like if you think in decades and you're a venture investor you can kind of just put the stuff out of your mind which is what i'm doing and the great thing is i'm seeing amazing companies great founders deals are taking longer to close people are starting to do diligence again and people are discussing what the right valuation for this early stage startup is which is good that's healthy i think we're getting like i don't know what you're seeing in the in the early to mid-stage market privately but i'm seeing really healthy discussions and late stage madness is gone it's over yeah i mean i think a hundred times ar is over but we no one really knows where it's landing so i've seen some deals get done at 60 to 80 times but um no one really knows where it should be you know i sent you guys his tweet from morgan housel who is a great guy and he has this fabulous tweet he says this he it says this the shock cycle and it's this beautiful cycle assume good news is permanent oblivious to bad news then you ignore the bad news then you deny the bad news then you panic at the bad news but then you accept the bad news and then you ignore the good news you deny the good news you accept the good news and then you assume the good news is permanent that starts the cycle if i if i could just put it out there i don't know today if you guys saw non-farm payrolls but we had a huge print in um unemployment like really great print meaning like a lot of employers were able to find people to take jobs it was a big number but the interesting thing about it was we didn't see uh wage inflation tick up with it and if i had to look at that and if you actually look at a bunch of the earnings reports that have come out in the last three or four weeks i actually think we're in the part of the cycle here where we're starting to ignore the good news and we're so negative and we're so emotionally wrapped up in everything that people forget that actually the world tends to um keep moving forward right um we are not in world war iii by any measure are we not we are not anywhere near that okay and so i just think it's important for people to take a step back and take a really deep breath but i think that there's a lot of good news out there there's a ton of good news and for people who don't know the term we're ignoring some people don't know the term print when we say there's a print that is just a colloquialism in the financial markets that something was formatted for printing previously and you've got good news so an official report is sometimes called we've got a price i agree with i think what's going on is there is some underlying good news right but there's this overhead of a small chance of something catastrophic happening so how do you price that in right it's it's it's uh it's like a one outer right yeah yeah exactly but this guy's quads were set over set yeah so one hour to one hour to the apocalypse basically if this tiny probability thing happens the the game is over so you know so it doesn't matter it doesn't right like it doesn't matter if it's the cost of your house does it matter if there's a nuclear war that's right this is this is the thing that people underestimate is like that's not a that's not a risk that one should be hedging in any way financially right at that point the only thing that matters is the health and safety of your family and your friends but really your immediate family like can you take care of them and make sure they're safe and so you know if you're if you're an investor in the financial markets or you're building a company managing for that externality in my opinion i'm not sure makes a ton of sense because i don't think you can manage to that externality you have no impact on something scenario yeah so i think you have to manage to the 99.999 of normalized outcomes and i think right now there are some what's called green shoots meaning like some positive news in the world and some positive data by the way the other thing that we saw today was or this week was jerome powell and you know the jerome powell testimony was also in the middle of massive amounts of bad news some actually pretty decent good news which was he said he's going to raise by 25 basis points in march everybody knew that right so we took the 50 basis pointer off the table but then he was very clear that they were going to be data-driven and in the language of the federal reserve what that essentially means is like we're going to be patient and wait and see and if you couple it with what i said before which is the economic cost of these economic sanctions towards russia can be calculated and i think that we have proven a willingness to print capital and money and so if you put those two things together i think there could be a real possibility that powell becomes very accommodative and you know he and biden and the entire administration come together with europe and everybody else and say get the money printer back going because we are we're going to stand the line on these economic sanctions and we're going to you know sort of soft land the economy here because we think there's recessionary risks afoot let me just provide a a little bit of a counter point which is where i'm most concerned we don't know what the repercussions are fully in a dynamical system of global capital of pulling out this much capital and devaluing assets at this scale so quickly the shock to the system i don't think has yet been realized and i think we'll know at the end of this month when books close what things actually do to businesses to swap agreements to trades you know trade balances that are outstanding and you could talk about economic stimulus as being the way to solve that but we don't yet know what's broken and they're like like let me just give you guys another example today corn i think is trading at 760 a bushel that hasn't happened guys i can't tell you in how long this was a commodity that was trading at 350 a few months ago and so we're now talking about that the trickle-down effect of that price into the beef the trickle-down effect as we're already seeing in california where the or san francisco and the average price per gallon of gas at over five dollars the trickle-down effect on um on purchasing behavior on businesses defaulting because uh suddenly their their counterparties dry up we don't know and we won't know and it's not actually we know some of those we know some of them but we don't know what we don't know and the thing i'm concerned about is this is a imagine when i say dynamical system from a physics perspective it's like take 100 slinkies and tie them together into a giant graph of slinkys and you start punching one of the slinkies like this if you punch one or two of the slinkies hard enough you don't know how the repercussions will cause a slinky all the way over there to suddenly shoot up or shoot down but you're also denying your ability to change a different slinky that's the whole point of a dynamic sure you could put energy back into it but we don't know what's broken and there could be something that's irreplaceable through these we've gone through these things before and i think you're not learning from history or you're at least not willing to admit it but no i i think we're seeing hold on a second we've seen it in tarp okay we did not know the total extent of what happened in the gfc and we had to invent a financial framework to soft land the global economy we figured it out when we went through ltcm and john merriweather blew up explain what dennis there was a huge hedge fund in the late 90s that basically had a massively levered exposure to the financial markets to the tune of like tens or tens or hundreds of billions of dollars go read the book when genius failed if you want to read the story it's a it does a good job summarizing it but it's a great story yeah go ahead and again we had to step in uh with a governmental framework and a broad infrastructure of actors across the world to soft land the financial economy in a way not knowing what the actual uh what what part was broken so i i just fundamentally disagree with this idea that we're running blind
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