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If you don't own gold, then you either have no knowledge of history or you don't understand economics. Those are not my words, but those of Ray Dalio, whom you just saw, one of the biggest and most famous hedge fund managers and billionaires of our time. And in English, they say "Put your money where your mouth is," meaning invest where you talk about it.
And that's exactly what Ray Dalio is doing right now. Recent filings show that he has now invested almost 90% of his assets in gold . What else is in his portfolio and what's actually going on in the US debt market, because things have become a bit quieter there lately, but not exactly better, we'll take a look at together in this video today.
My name is Jan Wilhöft from axinocapital.de. We have been successfully investing in precious metal and commodity stocks for over 35 years. If you like the videos , as always, please subscribe to the channel; this supports us. Thank you so much for your support and now enjoy today's video, as always this is not investment advice.
One more quick note before we start. Here you see a video that came online on Sunday, 1000m underground , extreme insights. As you can see here, I was in Africa, in Tanzania, in a so-called tanzanite mine. A very rare gemstone is mined there, and we have driven this shaft almost 1000 m underground. It was very oppressive; here are a few excerpts.
If you're interested in this video , I think many may not have even noticed it, as it's not the typical content on the channel. The video is linked below, feel free to check it out and leave a comment if you'd like to see more of this kind of thing, so we can give you more insights like this. Now we'll get straight to the point, and here you can see the 30-year US Treasury yields, so we 're back to the costs the US incurs to borrow money for 30 years, and these have recently increased massively again.
For over a year, we saw the area steadily climb upwards, occasionally retreating a little, then climbing again, and then we had this explosive rise, which was reported by many media outlets. Now interest rates have come back somewhat , not massively, we've fallen from an ex-absurd 4, uh 5.6% to a still rather absurd uh 5.4%, but the story or the un- uh worrying thing is the reason why we fell back there.
So, over the past few months we have repeatedly seen that the US Treasury Department has been buying back these long-term bonds. Nothing worked. We have seen that short-term debt has been taken on in order to buy back long-term debt. You should never do that. That did n't work either. We've seen all sorts of threats in the market, none of which worked, and we've even been told that they could take almost a trillion from the US Treasury's account to buy back these long-term bonds, er, maturing bonds.
The market wasn't interested in that either. Even when a small signal was given that a gold bond might be launched , that did n't bring interest rates down either. But now they've come down, so what brought the interest rates down? And that's the dangerous part, which hardly anyone is aware of. Here you see the 30-year interest rate in green, and here you see the Nasdaq, the US technology index, in red.
We can see the red-green color scheme in these candlesticks, right? And we can see very, very clearly here that the fall of US tech stocks over the last few days was also the point where the stocks, uh, where the bonds fell more or less at the same rate , right? So, as we can see here, from the peak until now, when they have recovered, US technology stocks have lost approximately 6.5% and US yields have also fallen by 4% at that time.
So you could say that nothing worked, nothing manipulative, no market mechanisms and no media reports, uh, that were supposed to somehow reduce this US interest burden. Only the letting off of steam over the, uh, over the stock market bubble, yes, the letting off of air, that has had, well , let's say, an impact .
And that's a big problem for me . Now we see that US stocks have rebounded a bit, have risen again, but interest rates have also risen somewhat, and for me this clearly means that the US is heading towards a scenario where it cannot afford its interest rates at this level , where it cannot afford its debts, but where it also cannot afford for the US stock market to be put under pressure.
I maintain that we have a similar situation to the dot-com bubble, even worse, because the debts are much higher. We'll briefly discuss what that means in a moment. And I fear the US will soon face the decision of either letting the stock markets fall or letting returns skyrocket . Both are very bad.
In parallel, one could also let inflation skyrocket; that would be another option, and that's bad too. So, the scenarios are very, very, very, very bad. The situation in which the country and its citizens in general in the Western world find themselves is very bad, and that doesn't mean that the big crash will happen tomorrow, but I simply want to warn and caution about the current situation we are in with the financial system.
We're going to hit a wall. The wall might be 100 meters away, it might be 200 meters away , yes, and whether we'll be driving towards it at 180 or 240 km/h is still undecided, but the wall is always, always, always getting closer and you simply have to prepare for it. Even though we see that the US debt burden has once again reached an absolute record high , yes, in percentage terms it is estimated that in 2026 we will have the highest, um, uh, amount , yes, in percentage terms of the US debt interest, i.e.
interest rates compared to the gross domestic product, yes, it will shoot well over 3% here. As you can see, the graphic goes back several decades. We've never been in a situation like this before, and this is the first step in this debt cycle. And we will be here, or this is the beginning of the end of the debt cycle.
We will see a veritable explosion of debt or an explosion of inflation. We can expect both to a greater or lesser extent . The problem now is that this market could be saved if the US enjoyed enormous trust and found more buyers for its debt securities. The problem is, China is abandoning the project.
Canada has now overtaken China, albeit rather unintentionally, but China is simply selling at such a high pace. And the Japanese are swimming further and further ahead. Here we see that the Japanese have been sellers of foreign interest-bearing securities or debt securities for the past few months, in fact for the entire year of 2026.
And they are primarily large holders of US debt securities. We must therefore assume that Japan will continue to reduce its debt and has no interest in increasing it further. This is a huge problem, which we are already seeing and will continue to see reflected in gold prices over the next few years.
I am convinced of this because we are going to slide into a financial crisis here, right? Anyone who has n't noticed this crisis yet has been asked for years: where is the crisis everyone is talking about? Honestly, I assume most people notice that there's always more month left at the end of the money , right?
It's just not the big bang that's in the news , but a creeping expropriation through inflation. Everything is becoming more expensive, everything is becoming more impossible for many people. And now we're seeing this not only at the state level, but also increasingly at the corporate level. This race surrounding AI and the expansion of AI infrastructure is something the USA will definitely not relinquish, right?
As we discussed in one of our recent videos, China can currently borrow money on the market under almost 60% better conditions than other countries . The Chinese will therefore do everything they can to further advance their AI development . And the US needs to follow suit . And that's what companies are doing now.
Anthropic is the company that publishes Claude, the Claude AI. This is essentially the equivalent of ChatGPT, right? And Anthropic already offers double-digit yields. So , that means they're already offering their debtors or lenders double-digit interest rates, right? So, over 10% interest rates are being offered.
This is a crazy situation and it also shows that we are actually already close to the realm of junk bonds, because a company that has to borrow money at double-digit interest rates, right? This is not necessarily a company that one would say has a high level of security. And just to give you an example, this is of course only partially comparable, but for long-term loans I always pick out a few countries , okay?
For example, in Armenia the figure is around 8.6%, and in Australia it is 5.2%. Here in Bangladesh, the figure is 9.2%. Then we have Botswana, which is double-digit, right? Double-Digit Yields. Currently, borrowing money in Botswana costs 13.3% in the long term. And that's the point, the country of Botswana, right?
The conditions for borrowing money in the long term are roughly the same as those that the big US AI giants already have to offer because they are simply so uncertain, need so much money, and the question is whether they will ever recoup that money. This is not a good situation and clearly shows why we have the situation here where the big billionaires and hedge funds are increasingly moving towards gold.
We are seeing more and more buyers entering this market . This is just an overview of how much money the Chinese have invested in the gold market. These are the Chinese gold imports, but not the sums in ounces, rather the financial amount, i.e., the amount in US dollars. And we see here that the Chinese have not even spent as much US dollar to import foreign money gold over the last 10 years as they have this year.
2026 is already a record year and we've only just started the fourth quarter. So you can see how great the need and demand is among the Chinese for the physical precious metal. And also, as I told you in the intro, the hedge fund manager, billionaire Ray Dalio, has just released new figures with his family office Bridgewater, and we see here that the gold share, yes, that is, physically backed gold ETFs, he doesn't actually have it lying around in his living room , but trades via ETF vehicles, makes up almost 85% of his portfolio.
85% of the portfolio of one of the largest and most successful hedge fund managers is gold. That makes me wonder what he's hedging against, and if he 's such an experienced stock market expert, why is he now switching to gold? Because he 's a big advocate of gold? Yes, certainly, but also because he fears something.
And I don't believe he wants to lose his fortune, which is why he's putting such an absurdly overweight position in gold. For me, this means one thing: he sees the problems the market is currently facing very similarly to us, and therefore also sees the timing of a possible crisis, from which gold might then benefit, as relatively imminent.
Otherwise, he could simply continue trading on the stock market . But what's interesting is that if we look at Ray Dalio here, you can see him up there from Bridgewater Associates, yes, that 's the hedge fund, if we look at his portfolio, we see that he's made changes over the last few months, reduced his holdings in Nvidia, for example, Amazon, Broadcom, Alphabet, yes, so he's mainly taken out these US tech companies , not all of them, but many have been reduced.
And on the other hand, let's look at what he's added, and we see here that after a long time, he's increased his holdings in something green again, Newmont, yes, a big gold and copper giant. And then we scroll a little further, no, somehow the page is n't cooperating. And then we see here, for example, Shell, yes, they have increased their position, and also Barrick Mining, yes, it's no longer called Barrick Gold because they are also heavily invested in copper, they have also increased their position by another 7%.
Why? Well, because, as Tavi Costa pointed out here, gold mines still have a pretty good free cash flow ratio to their enterprise value compared to the other S&P sectors. This means that the money still reaching the miners, with $4000 worth of gold plus or minus, is still an absolute dream; the companies are printing money.
And I was in London yesterday, or if you're watching the video now, the day before yesterday. We're in Frankfurt today, while the video is playing, also with Michael Gentili, and I flew to London again specifically for that, there's also a video about it, where Michael is a billionaire and has invested hundreds of millions of US dollars in junior mining stocks, yes, because he believes in this gold sector.
There were also many foremen, including foremen who are not specialized in mining, generalist foremen. And everyone I spoke to was very, very, very bullish on this entire sector. Yes, that means that while the general public is very afraid right now, and that's understandable, yes, the sector is already shaky and it could go down again, no question about it, yes, but the broad interest is growing ever larger, we're noticing that, and especially the interest on the professional investor side, where it's not just a few hundred or a few thousand euros that are involved, but where it's directly about several million euros.
And that was very noticeable; the event in London was absolutely overcrowded. I am also pleased that the events in Frankfurt and Munich are fully booked at the end of this week . I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there, okay? And for me, that's a clear sign of where things are headed. And when I then receive information such as the fact that European diesel prices per barrel are at a record high since 2001, 2002, it clearly shows me that we are going to have a huge problem here.
Inflation is a constant companion, and now we must ask ourselves what states can do to get rid of their debts? They can either cut income or expenses , right? We are currently seeing in France how well this is received by the population. One can, more or less, declare a national bankruptcy or carry out a currency reform.
Since what is happening in France is, I believe, a very good example of what is happening in such countries, the USA does not want to allow that to happen either . Yes, and then there's the third option, which Trump has already revealed: ever-increasing inflation. And from my point of view, that's exactly where we're headed.
And China, as I said, is importing record amounts of gold. In China, as we can see here, the premiums for physical metals are still significantly higher. So, gold is usually more or less zero. So, we actually have a 0.2% surcharge here in China. That's quite a bit , isn't it? Even if it doesn't sound like much.
Silver still costs almost 13% more there. And physical platinum is over 14% more expensive than what is quoted here in London . The regional price differences are therefore quite noticeable. And while we continue to export our gold and silver to China , right? And simply selling off the physical metal, so to speak, and as the Europeans withdraw further and further, and also the Americans, especially the small investors, are increasingly asking themselves whether they even need gold and silver after the crash, the Chinese are simply there, buying and still paying a fairly high premium compared to what we pay here.
They are willing to pay this premium, and regardless of the tax implications in China, we clearly see the demand, it is high and, in my view, it is continuing to move in this direction. You do n't start something like that, especially not as a government, only to cancel it three days later . Yes, that's it for today's video, a bit shorter today, but a general overview of everything that's happening on the planet.
We see several things that increasingly indicate that we are indeed in a volatile phase, but nevertheless we are holding on to gold, and we are still holding on to the important levels in silver, and I look forward to seeing you all here on the channel again tomorrow. If you enjoyed the video , please subscribe to the channel; it won't cost you a cent, but it helps us a lot.
As always, this is not investment advice. Feel free to check out the video from Saturday, yes, this mine visit, and uh, please leave a comment. Otherwise, as I said, see you tomorrow, have a nice evening. Ciao, ciao.
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