저자: JanWilhöft · 외국인
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미국 국채 장기금리 급등과 재정 부담을 근거로 금융위기·인플레이션 가능성을 경고. 달러 부채 위기 시나리오 속에서 금 비중 확대가 합리적이라고 주장. 레이 달리오의 금 85% 비중, 중국 금 수입 급증, 금광주 현금흐름 매력을 근거로 제시. 금광주(뉴몬트·바릭 등)에 긍정적이며 미국 기술주 비중 축소를 언급.
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원문이 독일어 채널의 영어 자막이라 한국어 요청에 맞춰 영어 원문을 다듬어 드리면, 자동자막 특성상 화자 발언을 그대로 살리되 오류를 고치고 문장을 정리하겠습니다. 다만 원문이 영어라서 "영어 자막은 영어로 다듬는다"는 원칙에 따라 영어로 정리합니다.
If you don't own gold, then you either have no knowledge of history or you don't understand economics. Those are not my words, but those of Ray Dalio, whom you just saw, one of the biggest and most famous hedge fund managers and billionaires of our time. In English, they say, "Put your money where your mouth is," meaning invest where you talk about it. And that's exactly what Ray Dalio is doing right now. Recent filings show that he has invested almost 90% of his assets in gold. What else is in his portfolio, and what's actually going on in the US debt market, because things have become a bit quieter there lately, but not exactly better, we'll look at together in this video today.
My name is Jan Wilhöft from axinocapital.de. We have been successfully investing in precious metal and commodity stocks for over 35 years. If you like the videos, as always, please subscribe to the channel; this supports us. Thank you so much for your support, and now enjoy today's video. As always, this is not investment advice.
One more quick note before we start. Here you see a video that came online on Sunday, "1,000 m underground, extreme insights." As you can see, I was in Africa, in Tanzania, in a so-called tanzanite mine. A very rare gemstone is mined there, and we drove this shaft almost 1,000 meters underground. It was very oppressive; here are a few excerpts. If you're interested in this video, and I think many may not have even noticed it, as it's not the typical content on the channel, the video is linked below. Feel free to check it out and leave a comment if you'd like to see more of this kind of thing, so we can give you more insights like this.
Now we'll get straight to the point. Here you can see the 30-year US Treasury yields, the cost the US incurs to borrow money for 30 years, and these have recently increased massively again. For over a year, we saw the line steadily climb upward, occasionally retreating a little, then climbing again, and then we had this explosive rise, which was reported by many media outlets. Now interest rates have come back somewhat, not massively. We've fallen from an absurd 5.6% to a still rather absurd 5.4%. But the worrying thing is the reason why we fell back there.
Over the past few months, we have repeatedly seen the US Treasury Department buying back these long-term bonds. Nothing worked. We have seen that short-term debt has been taken on in order to buy back long-term debt. You should never do that, and that didn't work either. We've seen all sorts of threats in the market, none of which worked, and we've even been told that they could take almost a trillion from the US Treasury's account to buy back these long-term, maturing bonds. The market wasn't interested in that either. Even when a small signal was given that a gold bond might be launched, that didn't bring interest rates down either.
But now they've come down. So what brought the interest rates down? That's the dangerous part, which hardly anyone is aware of. Here you see the 30-year interest rate in green, and the Nasdaq, the US technology index, in red. We can see very clearly that the fall of US tech stocks over the last few days was also the point where the bonds fell more or less at the same rate. From the peak until now, when they have recovered, US technology stocks have lost approximately 6.5%, and US yields have also fallen by about 4% at the same time. So nothing manipulative worked, no market mechanisms and no media reports that were supposed to reduce this US interest burden. Only the letting off of steam from the stock market bubble, the letting off of air, has had an impact.
That's a big problem for me. US stocks have rebounded a bit and risen again, but interest rates have also risen somewhat. For me, this clearly means the US is heading toward a scenario where it cannot afford its interest rates at this level, cannot afford its debts, but also cannot afford for the US stock market to be put under pressure. I maintain that we have a situation similar to the dot-com bubble, even worse, because the debts are much higher. I fear the US will soon face the decision of either letting the stock markets fall or letting returns skyrocket. Both are very bad. In parallel, one could also let inflation skyrocket, which would be another option, and that's bad too. The scenarios are very, very bad. The situation in which the country and its citizens in the Western world find themselves is very bad. That doesn't mean the big crash will happen tomorrow, but I simply want to warn about the current situation with the financial system. We're going to hit a wall. The wall might be 100 meters away, it might be 200 meters away, and whether we'll be driving toward it at 180 or 240 km/h is still undecided, but the wall is always getting closer, and you simply have to prepare for it.
Even though we see that the US debt burden has once again reached an absolute record high, it is estimated that in 2026 the US will have the highest percentage of debt interest relative to gross domestic product, and it will shoot well over 3%. As you can see, the graphic goes back several decades. We've never been in a situation like this before, and this is the first step in this debt cycle. This is the beginning of the end of the debt cycle. We will see a veritable explosion of debt or an explosion of inflation, and we can expect both to a greater or lesser extent.
The problem now is that this market could be saved if the US enjoyed enormous trust and found more buyers for its debt securities. But China is abandoning the project. Canada has now overtaken China, albeit rather unintentionally, because China is simply selling at such a high pace. And the Japanese are swimming further and further ahead. Here we see that the Japanese have been sellers of foreign interest-bearing securities, or debt securities, for the past few months, in fact for the entire year of 2026. They are primarily large holders of US debt securities. We must therefore assume that Japan will continue to reduce its holdings and has no interest in increasing them further. This is a huge problem, which we are already seeing and will continue to see reflected in gold prices over the next few years.
I am convinced of this because we are going to slide into a financial crisis. Anyone who hasn't noticed this crisis yet has been asking for years: where is the crisis everyone is talking about? Honestly, I assume most people notice that there's always more month left at the end of the money. It's just not the big bang that's in the news, but a creeping expropriation through inflation. Everything is becoming more expensive, and for many people everything is becoming more impossible. And now we're seeing this not only at the state level, but increasingly at the corporate level.
The race surrounding AI and the expansion of AI infrastructure is something the USA will definitely not relinquish. As we discussed in one of our recent videos, China can currently borrow money on the market under almost 60% better conditions than other countries. The Chinese will therefore do everything they can to further advance their AI development, and the US needs to follow suit. That's what companies are doing now. Anthropic is the company that publishes Claude, essentially the equivalent of ChatGPT, and Anthropic already offers double-digit yields. That means they're already offering their lenders double-digit interest rates. Over 10% is being offered. This is a crazy situation, and it also shows that we are already close to the realm of junk bonds, because a company that has to borrow money at double-digit interest rates is not necessarily one that would be considered highly secure.
To give you an example, this is only partially comparable, but for long-term loans I always pick out a few countries. In Armenia the figure is around 8.6%, and in Australia it is 5.2%. In Bangladesh the figure is 9.2%. Then we have Botswana, which is double-digit. Currently, borrowing money in Botswana costs 13.3% in the long term. The conditions for borrowing money in the long term are roughly the same as those the big US AI giants already have to offer, because they are simply so uncertain, need so much money, and the question is whether they will ever recoup it. This is not a good situation, and it clearly shows why the big billionaires and hedge funds are increasingly moving toward gold, and why we are seeing more and more buyers entering this market.
This is an overview of how much money the Chinese have invested in the gold market. These are the Chinese gold imports, measured not in ounces but in financial amount, in US dollars. The Chinese have not even spent as much US dollars importing gold over the last 10 years as they have this year. 2026 is already a record year, and we've only just started the fourth quarter. So you can see how great the need and demand is among the Chinese for physical precious metal.
As I said in the intro, the hedge fund manager and billionaire Ray Dalio has just released new figures with his family office Bridgewater. The gold share, meaning physically backed gold ETFs, which he doesn't actually keep in his living room but trades via ETF vehicles, makes up almost 85% of his portfolio. 85% of the portfolio of one of the largest and most successful hedge fund managers is gold. That makes me wonder what he's hedging against. If he's such an experienced stock market expert, why is he now switching to gold? Because he's a big advocate of gold? Certainly, but also because he fears something. I don't believe he wants to lose his fortune, which is why he's putting such an absurdly overweight position in gold. For me, this means one thing: he sees the problems the market is facing very similarly to us, and therefore also sees the timing of a possible crisis, from which gold might then benefit, as relatively imminent. Otherwise, he could simply continue trading on the stock market.
What's interesting is that if we look at Ray Dalio's portfolio at Bridgewater Associates, that's the hedge fund, we see that he has made changes over the last few months. He reduced his holdings in Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Alphabet, so he has mainly taken out US tech companies. Not all of them, but many have been reduced. On the other hand, let's look at what he has added. After a long time, he has increased his holdings in something green again: Newmont, a big gold and copper giant. Then he has also increased his position in Shell, and in Barrick Mining. It's no longer called Barrick Gold because they are also heavily invested in copper, and he has increased that position by another 7%. Why? As Tavi Costa pointed out, gold mines still have a pretty good free cash flow ratio to their enterprise value compared to other S&P sectors. With gold at around $4,000 an ounce, the cash still reaching the miners is an absolute dream. The companies are printing money.
I was in London yesterday, or the day before yesterday if you're watching now. We're in Frankfurt today while the video is playing, also with Michael Gentili, and I flew to London specifically for that. There's also a video about it, where Michael is a billionaire who has invested hundreds of millions of US dollars in junior mining stocks because he believes in this gold sector. There were also many fund managers, including generalists who are not specialized in mining. Everyone I spoke to was very, very bullish on this entire sector. That means that while the general public is very afraid right now, which is understandable, the sector is already shaky and could go down again, no question about it, the broad interest is growing ever larger. We're noticing that especially on the professional investor side, where it's not just a few hundred or a few thousand euros involved, but directly several million euros. That was very noticeable. The event in London was absolutely overcrowded. I'm also pleased that the events in Frankfurt and Munich are fully booked at the end of this week. I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there. For me, that's a clear sign of where things are headed. When I then receive information such as European diesel prices per barrel being at a record high since 2001 or 2002, it clearly shows me that we are going to have a huge problem here.
원문은 독일어가 아니라 영어 자동자막이므로, 영어 자막을 영어로 다듬어 정리하겠습니다.
Inflation is a constant companion, and now we must ask ourselves what states can do to get rid of their debts. They can either cut income or expenses, right? We are currently seeing in France how well this is received by the population. One can, more or less, declare a national bankruptcy or carry out a currency reform.
Since what is happening in France is, I believe, a very good example of what is happening in such countries, the USA does not want to allow that to happen either. Yes, and then there's the third option, which Trump has already revealed: ever-increasing inflation. And from my point of view, that's exactly where we're headed.
And China, as I said, is importing record amounts of gold. In China, as we can see here, the premiums for physical metals are still significantly higher. Gold usually sits at more or less zero here, but in China we actually have a 0.2% surcharge. That's quite a bit, isn't it? Even if it doesn't sound like much.
Silver still costs almost 13% more there. And physical platinum is over 14% more expensive than what is quoted here in London. The regional price differences are therefore quite noticeable.
And while we continue to export our gold and silver to China, and simply sell off the physical metal, so to speak, as the Europeans withdraw further and further, and the Americans, especially the small investors, increasingly ask themselves whether they even need gold and silver after the crash, the Chinese are simply there, buying, and still paying a fairly high premium compared to what we pay here.
They are willing to pay this premium, and regardless of the tax implications in China, we clearly see the demand. It is high and, in my view, it is continuing to move in this direction. You don't start something like that, especially not as a government, only to cancel it three days later.
Yes, that's it for today's video, a bit shorter today, but a general overview of everything that's happening on the planet. We see several things that increasingly indicate that we are indeed in a volatile phase, but nevertheless we are holding on to gold, and we are still holding on to the important levels in silver. I look forward to seeing you all here on the channel again tomorrow.
If you enjoyed the video, please subscribe to the channel. It won't cost you a cent, but it helps us a lot. As always, this is not investment advice. Feel free to check out the video from Saturday, yes, this mine visit, and please leave a comment. Otherwise, as I said, see you tomorrow, have a nice evening. Ciao, ciao.
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