저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 우려로 소프트웨어 섹터가 과도하게 매도됐으며 이는 'AI 고스트 트레이드'라는 주장. 소프트웨어 가치는 데이터와 스택에 있고 수익화는 이제 시작 단계. 옵션 시장의 메가캡 기술주 하락 베팅을 역발상 기회로 보며, 유가 상승 등 거시 리스크는 제한적일 것으로 전망. 기술주는 올해 후반 사상 최고치를 경신할 것으로 예측.
다듬은 글
Wall Street is dumping software like AI just signed its death warrant for every legacy name out there. And Dan Ies is basically screaming that this is the most disconnected trade of his career and a generational screw-up in real time because I think it's really an AI gush trade. It's the view that these LLMs or anything that comes out is going to be the demise of software.
I continue to view it as the most disconnected trade that I've seen in my career. I think it's just way oversold and I think this is going to continue to be a generational buying opportunity for the winner. This is a big thesis of you this this AI ghost trade. What metrics would appear that would cause you to change your mind?
Look, monetization the use cases is going to be software and I think Palunteer has been a great example of it. I think Oracle obviously that was a huge prove me moment that we saw you know from them. I think you'll see from Salesforce, Service Now, Cyber Security. Look, if there was a moment that you started to actually see enterprises go with true LLMs, that would be what would what I think that continues to be a fictional narrative.
And we've talked about it. I think the anthropic issue, it's a ghost trade and I think that's why there's a bottoming of the software sector. the a lot of the companies that we see under pressure because of skepticism over AI whether it's I mean I'm watching it with gaming companies that everybody can be a sharp now because AI makes it possible to put forward the best
predictions on parlays uh you're seeing it in travel with online travel agencies but what I hear from the companies is that they're harnessing and they're using AI to make what they offer to their customers better. That's I think you nailed it. I mean it comes down to like the LLMs that that's not going to be necessarily the value.
The value is in the data in the stacks and that's why I think when it comes to software the reason it's a ghost trade is that the monetization of software is just starting to happen now. I think Oracle that was a huge proving moment for the sector but but I think what you see is that you there's a lot of the bears that are coming out of hibernation mode looking at software as ultimately this is now the demise of it.
I strongly disagree. I think Microsoft is probably one of the most disconnected stocks that I've seen relative to the sell-off. What we're seeing though is that if you are uh an options trader, they are almost all going all in on the downside, especially in tech, especially for mega cap tech. Are you How is that affecting your thesis when you're seeing options coming down to a mega crisis?
I think it just creates obviously volatility but the opportunity for the bulls because in my view tech will make all-time highs later this year. No, are we going through a white knuckle moment? No doubt. But we've gone through it a year ago. If you go to deep sea liberation day and others, but if you look at the spending in the capex dollars that I think that ultimately is the yellow brick road because of the multiplier in capex that will be for software infrastructure, second, third derivatives across tech.
What about higher gas prices? The way that affects consumer sentiment and the way demand for consumer tech starts to have an impact. I think it's the view, okay, does this conflict with Ira? Does it last a few weeks, few months longer? You know, in our view like if it's contained, there's not that much of a negative impact, you know, relative.
What makes you think it would makes you think it would be contained? Look, I think that's the question is that I think right now the street and from a tech perspective, we're focused on is this going to change the view of capex dollars. Is it going to view the AI in terms of the use cases that are exploding?
Right now, we're not seeing that. To some extent, I think what you're actually seeing is an acceleration in the AI trend. Look, that's why look to me that's the huge debate right now is that the bears are basically saying like okay like this is going to disrupt the AI trade is going to disrupt tech.
We disagree and that's why this is a pound the table moment on the tech winners. Dan Ives you looking very conservative for uh Thursday morning again. You never know but I think maybe could be a little more aggressive as tech continues to go higher.
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