저자: 미상 · 외국인
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기술적 분석(웨지, 피보나치, 엘리엇파동, 이동평균, 거래량)과 거시지표(정책불확실성, 은행 지준금, 실업·소득)를 근거로 시장이 단기간 크게 하락할 것이라고 주장. 12월 전 추가 하락 후 부양책으로 반등 가능성 언급. 나스닥/TQQQ 중심 하락 전망.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's up today i'm going to be talking about um well i already made a video today but today i'm going to be breaking down the market more and more and more and if you guys have been watching my last few videos you have been seeing a consistency negative feeling in the market um you've been seeing some consolidation a lot of resistance uh just overall bad stuff so i'm gonna break everything down for you and you can make your own decision on it uh i'm just gonna say it out right now i think the market's going to go down pretty bad within the next few days so if we go to my trading view sorry let me just get my training view up load analysis all right so we have my analysis i did a full depth analysis on this so we can make this better right so this uh actually i'm going to start off with i'm gonna start off with this candle pattern wedge now you may be thinking well what the heck does this have to do with anything well this could be meaning that a wedge is going on and breaking it's gonna break out and essentially so there was a candle pattern wedge right here right here right here and now we're seeing one that is a lot larger so if you can see so this actually this amount of candles came from here to here all right and then that actually fits perfectly within this drop and that gain right there and it looks really good and then that drop in gain right there fits perfectly right here so i basically sized it appropriately draw a line candlestick patterns and then i measured the angles 44 degrees they are practically the same amount of um degrees meaning that they mean almost the same thing or a wedge so if we actually do the other side now which i will do our trend angle we have a uh 107 degree no 105 and if we move that over there we have another 44 degree um no wait we have a 117 degree so i'm just going to show you how it's getting so this could also mean that it's getting smaller or smaller just showing the wedge of all this so we have 107 then we have a 117 so the this number is growing its declining rate is glowing growing at a time meaning that it has downward pressure so that's what i think about that that's what i think about that so now we have a candle wedge and it is a downward candle it is a downward triangle which means if we're doing this right we could just expect this to be smaller and smaller and smaller and then since it's a downward trend pattern wedge there's a 75 already a 75 chance of it breaking down so right here we're going to write down down so this is saying down right here and it is also saying a man i can't type again and it's also saying a 78 chance of going down by the way if i don't spell anything correctly please don't i don't have spell checking on my computer yet um okay so this is basically pointing down as a 78 chance of going down already that right there is showing that it's that that really freaking sucks now you might notice this down here this is not actually an indicator it is something that i made myself so this downtrend uh actually no i'm gonna go to fibonacci first so if we go like this if we place it on the top of there we zoom in a bunch and i actually should move these and if we zoom in a lot we now we have now we have support resistances for a lot of stuff so now you can see all right so we have up up up up up up up and then finally it comes to a point where it's resistance breaks down and then once it gets in the purple it's more consolidation point so we have a consolidation point consolidation point but it's still kind of down trending and now i think this is where it gets really interesting i think it's mirroring itself going up and down so that means that this could be possibly be a double top this could possibly be a double top or this could be even close enough for a double top so it doesn't really matter but as you can see right here so i mean i mean it kind of is in the scope but if you look there's a resistance it breaks it and then all the sun is on upper trend there's a resistance and now all of a sudden it's on a downward trend in this circle so it's just doing the opposite every single time so in this blue you have an uptrend this one you have a downtrend the gray uptrend downtrend light blue uptrend downtrend and then uptrend in the green and then downtrend into the green and then an uptrend and then another downtrend and then consolidation in the red so that's what i think so that is also showing a um down so if we go if we just follow this what is it doing at that price right there it's estimated to drop back down to here and then spike up until there and then then it can do whatever but that's just what it's predicting so it can go up here again make official double top or it can continue down here and just completely just wipe out everyone's account so if we're going if we're going off of this and thinking that's like that we have about a 60 chance of that being right um so sixty percent all right there we go okay all right we have a 60 chance of that fibonacci circle being correctly is of being correct so i'm just going to erase all that now and i'm going to take some stuff off the chart all right now time to get into the very fun stuff um so i'm just going to fix some what i did before uh top all right i need to do one more need to do one more i'm sorry about this i thought i had this all ready to go so production you can start at the actual uptrend right there all right so that is the where the uptrend actually starts and as you can see hold on let me just get a quick feel at this angle piece so from the last point that it breaks in it's 137 degrees 151 so adding up that together i think it should be around 170.
so somewhere just within there so what we're going to do is we're going to take that and extend that right there and what we're going to do with that and we're going to take it extend it until it overlaps with that so we can just be consistent all right because that's what we're trying to do so now we have all of our angles correct and as you can see this kind of goes along with this every single time that this forms this v pattern right here which it has there is a massive downtrend every single time every single massive downtrend and i think that's what's happening here but they're getting smaller and smaller so if i go like that if i do the curve correctly so if we draw some stuff shoot i did that wrong okay if we draw from the tips to the tips to the tips that's where the bottom should be estimated out as but there is other ways to do this too so there's three ways that you can think about this is every single time that the you have these angles that break down and you have the same angles you can see the wedges are pretty much the same so all of these right here are identified right here with the same pattern all right and they're getting smaller and smaller and smaller and so are the ways that it drops down and how far it drops down but we're going to get to a point where it breaks all right and i've identified that with the elliott wave and the elliott wave is a wave it is 82 percent accurate i know the spelling is bad but i also noticed something about it so every single time is going to tell you about it uh every single time that there's a line right here it means that it was wrong on its prediction so we have um one two three wrongs out of twenty uh we have twenty um three wrongs out of twenty rights all right and when it starts to uptrend if it's before the top of the peak of this wave i mean at the very bottom before it's bottomed out it tends to be a stronger um put stronger trend up so now on this first one look at this it's after it it's not very strong it's not very strong it's not very strong it's after it it's kind of strong not really strong not very strong and then um you we have our first uptrend before and then we have a another uptrend before and look they're both really massive pushers and right there we have another uptrend before and those gains are all big all right then we have the red can and then we have the red oh shoot that should be blue all right and then we have the red ones so if it breaks after the peak for the red downtrends they tend to be a lot larger and as you can see right here so this one peaked after the red um and is now on its way down right here boom so right there this piece was wrong because it's all stimulus boom massive massive massive so look at this one was building up for really really really long time so it's identifying where we are in the trend so currently we are so currently we are about right here at the tip of it and this can go either way but as farther as farther as it gets past this wave the bigger that it can become um that this candle and then this is actually kind of nice because it's at the very top meaning that it can't break down that much but it can break down a lot um so right here we it waited it waited it waited and then it broke down waited to wait it awaited and then it can break down more so if you look at this piece after this massive breakdown we have a basically straight down after this one we have a straight down after this one what are we going to expect we're going to get we want to straight down but i don't think it's going to start to recover until a december 11th at 7 30 and that's possible and then the latest that it can recover is january 12 at 12 30 uh 2021 and those are the latest things that we can possibly think right there um and we can't predict the future on this but as you can see it's kind of accurate and it's nicer so i i just like this because if look it's after it's not that strong of a push and then it's after it's not that strong of a push and then sorry i have to call real quick all right sorry um so as i was saying every single time it gets below it it's every single time it's before the top of the candle it is usu before this the top i'm sorry i'm like having a brain fart i just was on a call for a second um so as you can see that's not that strong of a push so now you can see the buys the pushes are getting smaller but the losses are getting greater and greater so look it we have better better um better pushes better pushes and now we're getting a little worse now we're a little worse now it's pushing up harder and harder and harder but then all of a sudden it's before so now we have our hardest push we have our hardest push we have these two hardest pushes right there and as close as it can to get to this middle one that's the strongest and then the same things with this but it has to be with this way going the uh opposite direction so i'm just gonna kind of try to highlight this real quick so for the cells if it's before the top of that candle then it's not going to be that strong of a downtrend so like this one right here strong downtrend because it's past this piece right here look at that now we're past this piece even more and then this piece is right here so what are we expecting for the near future and that's just today now if we look at some patterns just besides that it also shows that's going to go down so i'm just going to trash all this real quickly and i'm going to be looking at the 180 sma and the 100 and no the 200 estimate very very good ways to look at the trend of a stock you can see that we just crossed below it um you can see that we just crossed below it and when we get this cross a yellow cross it's basically confirming the downtrend now you see this this is looks like all consolidation right here so if we're using day trading skills um this looks like a ton of consolidation right there um just looks like a big bunch of it and you can kind of see it like up here all this is consolidation too that's consolidation that's consolidation that's consolidation that piece is consolidation so you can see at the very tops of everything there's a lot of consolidation and since the virus and the government just be taking over everything they don't want it to go down every single investor doesn't want it to go down either but people are knowing in it is inevitable so they're having a massive fight and i think that's what this is right here and i think that is what we're seeing but as soon as we break out of this consolidation it's either going to go higher or lower because this could easily i mean it looks like this is a support it looks like this is a support but it just could be a um it could just be a it could just be a ton of consolidation maximized out so if we go like that look at that that kind of looks like it and that's like consolidation from another period just massive spikes up and down and so it's just having a massive fight because it's not following the trend of people so right there if we take right there right there if we extend that a bunch we are now looking at a lot of volume going on right here and if we look at the volume so let's look at some volume volume you can see just around here sorry i should probably use a different one i'm sorry give me a second there is a ton of volume compared to this so we are experiencing a multiplication of factors so every single time you can see a little bit of consolidation just look at how different it is at a point in time so before pandemic i'm just going to take our tops so average tops average tops and then i'm going to take these tops and i'm saying look at that we have about two times almost two times the amount of volume as we had before pre pandemic we're literally just anything and now we have a lot of volume which means people's actions are multiplied and considering that this is a triple leverage gtf it's six times multiplied i don't know what it's called so this i'm going to say that it's going to go down i'm going to say that it's going to go down i think it's just a massive consolidation period um okay um we're going to be looking at a 120 day sma and so we're gonna be looking at four hour chart and snail so as you can see um looks pretty darn smooth um generally but as you can see every single push when it has a massive push it tends to be followed with a massive decline and as you can see we're having a push for a massive push on the 4-hour chart but we haven't had a massive decline and i think that's where that multiplication of people's actions are coming in um and into play and the government doesn't want to go get out down the people are scared so they're selling and the government's literally just trying to do everything it possibly can to keep us there and i think that's what's going on um let's take a look at the day chart and so i actually noticed something really weird and i'm going to show you it so i'm going to do a fibonacci so i'm going to do some fibonacci stuff which i know a lot of people don't think is useful but it can be useful because it can't so let's try to figure out what the heck happened so you can see it's moving pretty slow everywhere then all of a sudden it breaks off which is around so january march april may july august september october november so i think on november 4th of 2016 i think that's where it it got us every i think that's where everything just kind of kept on going and we can probably small that make this smaller or larger depending on our size all right yeah so i found this kind of weird so this was the election this was kind of near the election in 2016 and as you can see it has been just so much growth so much growth is really really really good but every single time it hits a barrier it either goes up or down up or down up or down up or down up or down so let's take it into consideration so if we think that this one's going to go up and we think the next one's going to go down which it did and we think the next one's going to go up and we think the next one's going to go down which it did and then we think the next one's going to go up then that means we think this gray piece is going to go down so i'm i'm that's just something that i think can happen all right now i'm going to do some um support resistances real quick i know this video is long but we're going to break that we're breaking it everything but we have some upward pressure some upward price strength pressure and i'm going to color those all green really fast so i like to call this upward strength pressure and as we can see right here we're just trying to get most of the lines the most strong lines right here so let's just end it right there and then actually no let's put it right there all right that's not one yet you can't connect any of them all right so now we have some upward price strength pressure now we're going to do some downward so that is one this is one this when it crosses that there's a lot of downward strength and then we go and we connect the bottom of that one and then we connect the bottom of this one to the top so this is all-time highs so this was just pressure and then we have this piece this piece so as you can see we have the upward strength price pressure and then we have the downward strength suppressor pressure i like to think to myself um it can go either way but the markets start to tell us the markets start to tell us what direction uh we are expecting so look at this a lot of upward price strength pressure we have a slight pullback but keeps going up slight pullback keeps going up oh man that we got a pretty big dip there but we still have upward price pressure uh and a lot of it so we keep going up and now it's after this massive chronovirus loss we just are getting more and more and more and more so we have a lot of pressure going on considering that the more volume that we're taking on and just in general we could be expecting bad things to happen because there's more downward strength price pressure so if we look at just literally anything we can see i know these ones don't count for anything over here but i'm just saying for this stuff look it it starts to indicate it's way down you can see boom uh that's not a loss that's a downtrend that's a downtrend that's a downtrend and it doesn't really go anywhere except it just creates downward pressure and then once we finally break that pressure you can see that stuff happens like crap stuff um so i'm saying that that's gonna go down so there's a lot of stuff to this um but i'm just gonna talk i know that this has been a kind of long video i'm sorry so what have we known um a lot of stuff is happening that can just really freaking suck so i'm actually gonna open my td ameritrade and see what their probability statistics look like and um yeah i'm just gonna see what they look they look like but i'm also gonna talk to you right now about their i'm going to talk to you right now about sorry um i'm going to talk to you right now about news there's a lot of crap going on there's a ton of volume which means it's really volatile there is a lot of price strength there is a lot of bad news there's a lot of good news but the good news is short and i mean it's really large good news but there's not much of it but there is a ton of bad news so in the following months we could be expecting recovery of up until i think like january and that's when the covid vaccine is suggested to be out shoot so we could be experiencing since joe and joe biden is now the elected president uh president-elect or whatever and i'm not saying that but i don't think that trump's thing is gonna approve and i don't think it's gonna go um i don't think that his lawsuit's gonna go far so i think that there's just gonna be a ton of um people selling off and considering that his policies are basically gonna destroy um these policies are basically going to destroy everything um that's going on to recover the economy besides the stimulus deal which is estimated like right before christmas uh if they could possibly get it out right before christmas but that's only if they take over the house and they take over the senate too um and that's the only way that that can happen so you know just in general that tends to be that that's an issue so it's actually i think that the stimulus is going to be after the coveted vaccine the vaccine once it gets to everyone people are going to start being like oh finally we can take off her master whatever and go aside and do stuff and now there still is going to be restrictions but i don't think it's going to be as harsh as normal so right now i'm going to show you we have uh hold on all right so um i'm going to show you right this so i have all my trades but it does not matter that piece i'm going to go to analyze tqq this is practically what they are thinking so i am touching uh let me just probability range 199.
all right all right so this is what trading view this is what um it is basically thinking it has 96 volatility um which is can be good and bad um but there is a in by november 13th there's a 12 chance of it being above 148.60 and here's the statistics down here so you can pause the video and look at them up themselves so i'm just gonna go across the chart so it looks like there's a probability of it down trending so um there's a 39 chance i'm just going to do the highest in each category 39.47 percent chance so let's just call that 40 chance of it being between 121 and 135 by november 20th i mean by november 13th through the 20th then there is a 28 chance of it being below 121 on november 20th to wow what the hell is going on here yeah this is kind of whack november 13th november november 13th so this is november 13th november 20th november 27th um yeah so i'm just going to read the all right by november 27th there's a 34 chance of it being below 121.
on december 4th there's a 38 chance of it being below 121 but it there also could be a chance of it being above 148 so that's probably the issue with the stimulus deal so currently i think it might be looking like um i said before in my last video i've been breaking it down a lot um so in this video like on so that's december 4th and then there's a 40 chance so it just gets exponentially um more likely that it's going to go down so over time i think i know you can't just look at my i think that it's going to do something like this so the current price is right there um so you can't really see my mouse but just try to look at it i think it's going to go down and then probably go up a little bit and then it's going to keep on just going going going going going going and actually just following this price curve right here um so you know that's probable and then the so there's a 44 chance on november 24th right before christmas of it being below 121.
there's a 47 chance of it being below 121 no on january on january 15th then there is a 54 chance of it being below 121 by march 19th and so on and so on until we get to january 20 january 20th and there's a 73 chance of it being below 121 but it doesn't it gets a less accurate as you go farther and farther out so i think that the curve where it stops is probably around right here i think that's where we should probably stop um or right here just somewhere just these are most accurate so you can just look at those so that's what it is thinking and then if we were going off of um and then if we go 50 so if we give it our bet if we give it our best chances uh let's just go with a uh 30 30 volatility um actually no let's give it a 40.
let's i'm just seeing what's going on here making sure everything looks right 50. alright so even if we give it our best odds right here there is still a likely chance of it being at 188 between 188 and 135 that's the highest likely chance pretty much in every single category besides you getting more out but it just has an exponential loss on that stuff so yep that's pretty much what is going on here so i'm actually going to look at some um economic data so i'm going to search up gdp first domestic report of not china range one year so um over the year we are down um a ton in gdp in general uh let me just all right so that's one egg that's one way that it can go now i'm gonna be looking at uh back all right so now i'm gonna be looking for unemployment current employment statistics construction let's just go minimum wage should be pretty darn flat alright so minimum wage as you can see it's growing uh so that i don't think that matters that much actually yeah i don't think that matters that much where the hell was it i know this video is kind of long i'm sorry about this but i'm just trying to break everything down economic data bring that back all right so i'm just going to look through some stuff how's our population tax data income distribution all right so so this is the median household income over the year so actually right now geez that's only since at 2019 i think that it's already all the way down here again because people have been gotten fired and actually i've heard that it has been going way down um and then actually let's go to dollar let's go to us dollar sale port to fx us uh just go home us let's just search up the dollar sign all right claims historical policy uncertainty so as you can see right here we have our can we go back please please can we just go back all right all right so we have our economics policy policy uncertainty and this drives market by basically scaring it for a little bit so this is essentially another marker it's like the vix on how scared people are and um yeah so that's what i think so you can see in 2008 there's a lot of policy uncertainty and the market went up anyways but at first it had a downtrend because there's a change in president and then in 2016 you can see that the market really wasn't that worried only on um on the 6 6 26 2016 they were scared of obama something but as you can see since prison trump has taken office it just has not gone up and then all of a sudden we get to a place um we get to a place in the market where there is just a massive spike we did there's just a massive massive spike like um so yeah that is just an indication of how scared people are and this is how scared people are where is it missions uh business cycle technology wholesale manufacturing sorry this is a long video i keep saying that but um funds international transactions cryptocurrencies commodities trade indexes health care monitoring actually let's go to reserves let's go to reserves and let's see what the amount of bank reserves that we have by week so i'm just going to go buy billions of dollars so now we have a lot of money being pumped in the market as you can see when there's just a freaking ton of money being pumped in the market since 2008 and just so much money being part pumped in the market because we did away with the gold standard and just everything sucks so uh just massive mass and mass massive massive and then all of a sudden we're getting to a point where it's getting its highest highest ever um so into i hope you guys know this but 2020 we had our stimulus package this was our first simuls package it ended up going down again because this is the amount of money that banks have and so now it's going back up basically banks are preparing for another downward push or a spiral um a downward trend that's what i'm trying to say all right so oh my geez that was a long house video um so i hope you guys found that very interesting i know that was a 40 minute video and i hope that you guys learned some stuff and i hope that you guys can make the right decision on everything i wasn't trying to sway you in any direction but you certainly know my opinion um i'm not saying that you should sell and short all your stocks i'm so i'm saying that there's a high likely chance of there being another breakdown before december and then there being a stimulus right after that um basically pushing the market back up artificially and creating another bubble in the process which this entire thing just could be a massive bubble anyways because we don't know if we're in a bubble until we are out of it so this entire thing could just be a massive bubble this um entire market just could be crap and everything could just be going out right now so see you later
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